The contest between Annan Athletic and Kelty Hearts is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win at 39%. The draw sits at 26% and the away win at 35%. The average goal count is 3.1, but the most likely total is two goals, a 23% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12% probability. Annan, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.73 goals scored and 1.27 conceded. Kelty, on the road to a weaker opponent, averages 1.5 scored and 2.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 82.6%, Under 25.5 fouls at 82.2%, Over 8.5 corners at 80.9% (miss), Under 5.5 cards at 80.5%, Over 2.5 cards at 74.2%, and Over 9.5 corners at 71.1% (miss). The match remains uncertain, with both sides capable of turning the tide.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Kelty Hearts snatched a 2-0 victory, overturning the pre-match favourite, Home win, which the model had given a 39% chance. The model’s call was wrong. The match finished 0-2, a clear away win. The model’s selection Over 1.5 goals, with an 82.6% probability, proved correct, as did Under 25.5 fouls (82.2%) and Under 5.5 cards (80.5%). Over 8.5 corners (80.9%) and Over 9.5 corners (71.1%) missed, while Over 2.5 cards (74.2%) hit. The win extended Annan Athletic’s recent run, and Kelty Hearts’ defeat was their fifth-match slump.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Annan Athletic win✗ Miss
39.3%
Avg Implied 38.1% · @ 2.41
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.0%
Avg Implied 27.0% · @ 3.40
Edge
-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts win✓ Hit
34.7%
Avg Implied 34.8% · @ 2.64
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.60
1.64
1.21
1.00
1.94
vs Stronger (24)
1.29
1.58
1.73
1.27
0.92
1.85
vs Similar (6)
1.33
1.67
1.33
1.00
1.33
2.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kelty Hearts
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.63
1.00
1.13
1.53
2.13
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.05
2.11
0.38
2.00
1.55
2.18
vs Weaker (10)
1.70
0.90
1.83
0.17
1.50
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.6%
Under 1.5
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
59.9%
@ 1.77+7.1%
Under 2.5
40.1%
@ 1.98-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.5%
Under 3.5
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.1%
No
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
8.1%
2-2
6.5%
1-0
6.1%
2-0
5.8%
0-1
5.7%
0-0
5.6%
Annan Athletic goals ↓
Kelty Hearts goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
5.7%
5.0%
2.5%
0.9%
1
6.1%
12%
8.1%
4.0%
1.5%
2
5.8%
8.7%
6.5%
3.2%
1.2%
3
3.1%
4.6%
3.5%
1.7%
0.6%
4
1.2%
1.9%
1.4%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Annan Athletic goals (down), columns = Kelty Hearts goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arbroath
1.78
Inverness CT
1.61
Cove Rangers
1.58
Queen of Sth
1.53
Stenhousemuir
1.47
Alloa
1.42
Kelty Hearts
1.22
Montrose
1.11
Annan Athletic
1.00
Dumbarton
0.97
Annan Athletic is 0.22 points worse than Kelty Hearts in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cove Rangers
1.72
Arbroath
1.61
Alloa
1.53
Dumbarton
1.42
Stenhousemuir
1.33
Queen of Sth
1.28
Inverness CT
1.25
Annan Athletic
1.14
Kelty Hearts
1.11
Montrose
1.11
Annan Athletic is 0.03 goals better than Kelty Hearts in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inverness CT
1.06
Queen of Sth
1.14
Arbroath
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.22
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Kelty Hearts
1.28
Alloa
1.31
Montrose
1.36
Dumbarton
1.83
Annan Athletic
1.89
Annan Athletic is 0.61 goals worse than Kelty Hearts in terms of goals conceded per game (1.89 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Annan Athletic
For 3.8 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.0 · Against 11.9 · Total 20.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kelty Hearts
For 5.6 · Against 6.6 · Total 12.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.1 · Against 11.6 · Total 20.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.7
9.1
4.1
4.0
4.2
21.1
21.2
21.0
vs Stronger (39)
9.8
10.3
9.3
4.2
4.2
4.2
20.7
21.8
19.6
vs Similar (11)
10.2
11.8
8.2
3.8
3.3
4.4
22.5
19.3
26.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
61%
43%
62%
60%
64%
43%
52%
35%
% under line
48%
39%
57%
38%
40%
36%
57%
48%
65%
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kelty Hearts
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.3
10.4
12.2
3.2
3.1
3.3
21.3
21.6
21.0
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
10.7
10.6
10.9
3.2
3.0
3.3
22.3
22.9
21.9
vs Weaker (19)
12.1
10.1
14.3
3.4
3.6
3.2
19.8
20.1
19.6
% over line
61%
45%
75%
36%
38%
35%
46%
59%
33%
% under line
39%
55%
25%
64%
62%
65%
54%
41%
67%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Dumbarton
11.8
Kelty Hearts
11.2
Arbroath
10.8
Alloa
10.4
Montrose
10.2
Stenhousemuir
10.2
Queen of Sth
10.0
Cove Rangers
9.9
Inverness CT
9.8
Annan Athletic
9.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Annan Athletic
4.5
Stenhousemuir
4.3
Montrose
4.0
Queen of Sth
3.9
Alloa
3.8
Dumbarton
3.7
Arbroath
3.6
Kelty Hearts
3.6
Inverness CT
3.0
Cove Rangers
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stenhousemuir
22.8
Queen of Sth
21.4
Kelty Hearts
21.3
Montrose
20.9
Annan Athletic
20.9
Arbroath
20.4
Alloa
20.0
Dumbarton
19.4
Inverness CT
19.3
Cove Rangers
18.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
71.1%
Under 9.5
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
54.0%
Under 3.5
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
46.6%
Under 21.5
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
1.00
0.71
0.44
0.94
vs Stronger (24)
0.67
0.75
1.09
0.64
0.31
0.85
vs Similar (6)
0.83
1.17
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kelty Hearts
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.33
0.53
0.73
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.42
0.89
0.00
0.88
0.73
0.91
vs Weaker (10)
0.80
0.70
0.83
0.17
0.75
1.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.77
0.64
0.50
0.56
1.00
vs Stronger (24)
0.62
0.83
0.64
0.64
0.62
1.00
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.00
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kelty Hearts
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.83
0.67
0.60
0.80
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.63
1.21
0.38
1.12
0.82
1.27
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
0.20
1.00
0.00
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 9.5 corners
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARB (15)
€1m
KH (4)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Kelty Hearts have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Kelty Hearts have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARB (7)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Kelty Hearts have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League One 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Arbroath
Inverness CT
Cove Rangers
Stenhousemuir
Montrose
Dumbarton