Annan Athletic vs Spartans Result & Analysis

Annan Athletic return to the ground after a win over Dumbarton, yet the model still favours an away victory for Spartans, who have been scoring twice on the road against weaker opposition while conceding only two-thirds of a goal. The predicted probabilities are 27% for a home win, 23% for a draw and 51% for an away win, making the latter the clear favourite. The model expects 3.6 goals on average, with the most likely total of three goals at 21%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 9.4% chance, a figure that matches the actual draw that occurred. Home form shows 2.5 goals scored and 2.12 conceded against stronger teams, while Spartans average 2.0 scored and 0.67 conceded away against weaker sides. Suggested selections include Over 1.5 goals at 88.5%, Over 2.5 cards at 79.6%, Under 25.5 fouls at 78.1%, Under 5.5 cards at 74.5%, Under 11.5 corners at 72.9%, and Over 2.5 at 70.1% with a 16% edge.

The pre-match favourite, the Spartans, were expected to win with a 51% probability, but the match ended in a 1-1 draw, leaving the model’s call wrong. The final score was 1-1, a result that matched the model’s predicted draw probability of 23%. The upset was highlighted by the home side, Annan Athletic, who came off a win and extended their recent form streak. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Over 1.5 goals hit at 88.5%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 79.6%, Under 25.5 fouls hit at 78.1%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 74.5%, and Under 11.5 corners hit at 72.9%. The only miss was Over 2.5 goals, which fell short at 70.1%.