Annan Athletic’s recent form has been shaky, with two straight defeats and a 0-1 loss to Edinburgh City, while the Spartans have come off a draw and a 3-3 stalemate against Elgin. The model therefore favours an away win, with a 44% chance of Spartans triumph, 33% for a home victory and 24% for a draw. The expected total of 3.6 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 9.9% probability. Annan, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 2.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, whereas Spartans, on the road against a weaker opponent, average 1.45 scored and 1.27 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 87.9%, Under 25.5 fouls at 82.9%, Over 2.5 cards at 77.9%, Under 5.5 cards at 76.6%, Under 11.5 corners at 76.0%, and Under 23.5 fouls at 70.4%.
Results analysis
The Spartans’ win extended their recent run, turning a draw into a decisive away victory. The model’s favourite, an away win at 44 percent, proved correct, and the final score of 0-2 matched the predicted outcome. The model also called the most likely total of three goals, which fell short, but its selections largely hit: Over 1.5 goals at 87.9 percent, Under 25.5 fouls at 82.9 percent, Over 2.5 cards at 77.9 percent, Under 5.5 cards at 76.6 percent, and Under 11.5 corners at 76.0 percent all came through, while Under 23.5 fouls at 70.4 percent missed. The Spartans’ performance, buoyed by a stronger away form, secured the predicted result.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Annan Athletic win✗ Miss
32.6%
Avg Implied 33.2% · @ 2.71
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.7%
Avg Implied 26.7% · @ 3.36
Edge
-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Spartans win✓ Hit
43.7%
Avg Implied 40.1% · @ 2.24
Edge
+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.47
2.00
1.14
1.00
1.75
vs Stronger (11)
1.73
1.91
2.40
1.40
1.17
2.33
vs Similar (12)
1.42
1.42
2.00
1.00
0.83
1.83
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.86
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartans
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.10
1.27
0.80
1.93
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
2.38
1.25
1.50
0.75
3.25
1.75
vs Weaker (22)
1.32
1.05
1.18
0.82
1.45
1.27
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.9%
Under 1.5
12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
69.0%
@ 1.68+14.4%
Under 2.5
31.0%
@ 2.02-14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.6%
Under 3.5
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
69.7%
No
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.9%
1-2
8.6%
2-1
7.4%
2-2
7.1%
1-3
5.5%
0-2 ✓
5.2%
0-1
4.6%
2-3
4.5%
Annan Athletic goals ↓
Spartans goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.7%
4.6%
5.2%
3.3%
1.6%
1
3.8%
9.9%
8.6%
5.5%
2.6%
2
3.8%
7.4%
7.1%
4.5%
2.2%
3
2.1%
4.0%
3.9%
2.5%
1.2%
4
0.9%
1.7%
1.6%
1.0%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Annan Athletic goals (down), columns = Spartans goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
East Kilbride
1.92
Spartans
1.78
Clyde
1.56
Forfar
1.39
Stranraer
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Annan Athletic
1.14
Dumbarton
1.11
Edinburgh City
1.08
Stirling
1.06
Annan Athletic is 0.64 points worse than Spartans in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.78).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
East Kilbride
2.14
Spartans
1.67
Clyde
1.61
Elgin
1.42
Forfar
1.42
Annan Athletic
1.31
Dumbarton
1.31
Stirling
1.28
Stranraer
1.28
Edinburgh City
1.25
Annan Athletic is 0.36 goals worse than Spartans in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Spartans
1.08
Clyde
1.14
Stranraer
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Forfar
1.31
Elgin
1.53
Annan Athletic
1.61
Dumbarton
1.69
Stirling
1.75
Edinburgh City
2.00
Annan Athletic is 0.53 goals worse than Spartans in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 1.08).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Annan Athletic
For 4.5 · Against 4.2 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 13.0 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Spartans
For 5.8 · Against 4.2 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.3 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 9.3 · Total 19.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.0
10.3
3.7
3.5
3.9
22.6
22.9
22.2
vs Stronger (24)
9.4
8.7
10.1
3.6
3.4
3.8
21.3
22.2
20.4
vs Similar (18)
8.8
7.6
9.9
3.9
3.7
4.2
24.3
24.1
24.4
vs Weaker (8)
12.3
12.5
12.0
3.6
3.8
3.5
21.9
22.0
21.7
% over line
51%
43%
59%
58%
54%
62%
60%
57%
64%
% under line
49%
57%
41%
42%
46%
38%
40%
43%
36%
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartans
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
8.7
9.1
3.5
3.4
3.5
19.8
20.8
18.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
7.7
7.2
7.9
3.0
1.8
3.5
21.9
23.5
21.1
vs Weaker (34)
9.4
9.1
9.9
3.7
3.9
3.5
18.9
20.1
17.4
% over line
40%
38%
43%
54%
52%
56%
33%
43%
24%
% under line
60%
62%
57%
46%
48%
44%
67%
57%
76%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.8
Dumbarton
10.6
East Kilbride
10.5
Elgin
10.4
Stranraer
10.2
Clyde
9.7
Annan Athletic
9.6
Edinburgh City
9.1
Spartans
9.1
Forfar
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Edinburgh City
5.2
Forfar
4.5
Elgin
4.4
Clyde
4.4
Spartans
4.2
Stirling
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
Annan Athletic
4.1
Dumbarton
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
East Kilbride
26.7
Forfar
24.4
Edinburgh City
24.1
Elgin
22.5
Stranraer
22.4
Clyde
22.4
Annan Athletic
22.1
Stirling
21.0
Dumbarton
20.4
Spartans
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
46.8%
Under 9.5
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
59.0%
Under 3.5
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
45.6%
Under 21.5
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
1.21
0.57
0.31
0.62
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
0.91
1.20
1.00
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.42
1.17
0.17
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.43
1.33
0.67
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartans
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.57
0.53
0.40
0.87
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.62
0.50
0.25
1.25
1.00
vs Weaker (22)
0.64
0.55
0.55
0.45
0.73
0.64
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.87
0.79
0.57
0.69
1.12
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
1.00
1.20
0.40
0.67
1.50
vs Similar (12)
0.83
1.00
0.83
0.83
0.83
1.17
vs Weaker (7)
0.29
0.43
0.00
0.33
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartans
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.53
0.73
0.40
1.07
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.50
0.62
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.75
vs Weaker (22)
0.68
0.50
0.64
0.36
0.73
0.64
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League Two 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →