Stirling are tipped to lift the trophy, with the model picking an away win at 49%. The match is expected to see 2.9 goals, averaging roughly 2.6 goals per side, but the most likely total is 2 goals, a 1-1 draw with a 12.3% chance. Annan Athletic, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, averages 1.17 goals scored and 2.17 conceded, while Stirling, on the road, averages 1.83 scored and 1.17 conceded. The probabilities for the match result are 25% for a home win, 26% for a draw and 49% for an away win. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 81.4%, Over 1.5 goals at 79.7%, Over 2.5 cards at 77.7%, Under 5.5 cards at 76.8% and Under 11.5 corners at 73.6%. The last five games show Annan Athletic coming off a win, while Stirling are coming off a defeat.
Results analysis
Annan Athletic’s win, 3-1, surprised everyone, especially after the model had tipped an away victory with a 49% probability. The pre-match favourite, the model’s selection, proved wrong, as the home side turned the tide. The final score also overturned the 24% chance of a 2-goal total, with four goals scored. The model’s other selections all hit: over 19.5 fouls at 81.4%, over 1.5 goals at 79.7%, over 2.5 cards at 77.7%, under 5.5 cards at 76.8% and under 11.5 corners at 73.6%. Annan Athletic, coming off a win, extended their recent form, while Stirling, after a defeat, saw their run falter.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Annan Athletic win✓ Hit
24.8%
Avg Implied 29.9% · @ 3.08
Edge
-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.0%
Avg Implied 26.6% · @ 3.46
Edge
-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stirling win✗ Miss
49.2%
Avg Implied 43.6% · @ 2.11
Edge
+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.33
1.13
1.60
0.87
1.07
vs Stronger (17)
0.94
1.06
1.12
1.25
0.78
0.89
vs Similar (10)
1.00
1.90
1.17
2.17
0.75
1.50
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.30
0.80
1.47
2.07
1.13
vs Stronger (18)
1.56
1.56
0.89
2.00
2.22
1.11
vs Similar (12)
1.25
0.92
0.67
0.67
1.83
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.7%
Under 1.5
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.4%
@ 1.81+3.8%
Under 2.5
44.6%
@ 1.93-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.1%
Under 3.5
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.9%
No
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
1-2
9.6%
0-1
8.4%
0-2
8.2%
0-0
6.6%
2-1
6.5%
2-2
5.6%
1-3
5.5%
Annan Athletic goals ↓
Stirling goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
8.4%
8.2%
4.7%
2.0%
1
5.3%
12%
9.6%
5.5%
2.4%
2
3.8%
6.5%
5.6%
3.3%
1.4%
3
1.5%
2.6%
2.2%
1.3%
0.5%
4
0.4%
0.8%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Annan Athletic goals (down), columns = Stirling goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kelty Hearts
2.25
Forfar
1.67
Annan Athletic
1.64
Edinburgh City
1.44
Stenhousemuir
1.36
Stranraer
1.31
Stirling
1.17
Albion Rvs
1.08
Elgin
1.03
Cowdenbeath
0.81
Annan Athletic is 0.47 points better than Stirling in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kelty Hearts
1.89
Annan Athletic
1.78
Forfar
1.58
Stranraer
1.39
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Edinburgh City
1.19
Stirling
1.14
Albion Rvs
1.03
Elgin
0.92
Cowdenbeath
0.78
Annan Athletic is 0.64 goals better than Stirling in terms of goals scored per game (1.78 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kelty Hearts
0.78
Forfar
1.00
Stenhousemuir
1.28
Stirling
1.28
Cowdenbeath
1.36
Edinburgh City
1.36
Annan Athletic
1.42
Elgin
1.42
Stranraer
1.50
Albion Rvs
1.61
Annan Athletic is 0.14 goals worse than Stirling in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Annan Athletic
For 4.4 · Against 5.3 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 12.3 · Total 22.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stirling
For 5.2 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 11.4 · Total 23.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.0
10.2
3.7
3.9
3.5
24.8
27.1
22.4
vs Stronger (30)
9.8
8.7
10.8
4.0
4.3
3.7
25.1
28.7
21.5
vs Similar (17)
8.7
8.8
8.6
3.3
3.3
3.3
23.9
24.6
22.9
vs Weaker (3)
12.7
14.0
12.0
3.3
4.0
3.0
28.0
29.0
27.5
% over line
44%
42%
46%
56%
62%
50%
70%
81%
58%
% under line
56%
58%
54%
44%
38%
50%
30%
19%
42%
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.6
10.4
3.8
3.2
4.4
23.4
23.2
23.5
vs Stronger (30)
9.9
10.5
9.4
3.6
3.2
4.1
23.2
23.3
23.1
vs Similar (20)
11.3
10.8
11.7
4.1
3.1
4.9
23.8
23.2
24.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
58%
67%
50%
56%
38%
73%
66%
62%
69%
% under line
42%
33%
50%
44%
62%
27%
34%
38%
31%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.5
Albion Rvs
10.3
Cowdenbeath
10.2
Elgin
10.1
Stenhousemuir
10.0
Kelty Hearts
10.0
Stranraer
9.7
Annan Athletic
9.6
Edinburgh City
9.1
Forfar
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cowdenbeath
4.5
Elgin
4.2
Stenhousemuir
4.0
Stirling
3.8
Annan Athletic
3.7
Edinburgh City
3.6
Stranraer
3.3
Albion Rvs
3.3
Forfar
3.1
Kelty Hearts
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Annan Athletic
24.8
Cowdenbeath
24.5
Stirling
23.4
Albion Rvs
22.8
Stenhousemuir
22.5
Stranraer
22.2
Edinburgh City
22.1
Elgin
22.1
Forfar
22.0
Kelty Hearts
20.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
49.7%
Under 9.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
58.7%
Under 3.5
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
67.8%
Under 21.5
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.60
0.80
0.33
0.40
vs Stronger (17)
0.47
0.35
0.62
0.25
0.33
0.44
vs Similar (10)
0.40
1.10
0.50
1.50
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.20
0.80
1.20
0.60
vs Stronger (18)
0.61
1.00
0.11
1.11
1.11
0.89
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.25
0.33
0.33
1.33
0.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.73
0.53
0.80
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (17)
0.47
0.71
0.50
1.00
0.44
0.44
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.80
0.67
0.67
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
0.60
0.67
0.87
0.53
vs Stronger (18)
0.94
0.56
0.78
0.89
1.11
0.22
vs Similar (12)
0.42
0.67
0.33
0.33
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (4)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stirling have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stirling have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stirling have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stirling have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kelty Hearts
Forfar
Edinburgh City
Stenhousemuir
Stranraer
Elgin
Cowdenbeath