The match sits on a knife-edge, with the model favouring a home win at 41%. The draw probability is 28% and the away side’s chance sits at 31%. The expected total goals hover at 2.8, with the most likely total being two goals at 25%. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, carrying a 13.1% chance. Annan Athletic, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Stirling, on the road, averages 0.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded against similar opposition. The model’s selections include Under 25.5 fouls at 81.6%, Under 11.5 corners at 80.3%, Over 2.5 cards at 78.6%, Over 1.5 goals at 77.6%, Under 5.5 cards at 75.7%, and Under 10.5 corners at 70.6%. Each pick is presented with its exact probability, and no other outcome is given a win probability.
Results analysis
Stirling’s 2-1 victory over Annan Athletic stunned the pre-match favourite, the model’s Home win pick, which had a 41% chance. The result was a clear miss for the model’s prediction. The final score of 1-2 gave the away side the actual result of an away win. The model’s selection for Under 25.5 fouls, with an 81.6% probability, missed, while Under 11.5 corners at 80.3% hit. Over 2.5 cards (78.6%) and Over 1.5 (77.6%) both hit, as did Under 5.5 cards (75.7%) and Under 10.5 corners (70.6%). Annan Athletic, coming off a win, had a recent form of WLLWL, whereas Stirling, after a defeat, had LDLLW.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Annan Athletic win✗ Miss
41.0%
Avg Implied 43.0% · @ 2.14
Edge
-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied 27.5% · @ 3.35
Edge
+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stirling win✓ Hit
31.4%
Avg Implied 29.6% · @ 3.11
Edge
+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.53
2.00
1.47
1.40
1.60
vs Stronger (12)
2.33
1.50
2.25
1.62
2.50
1.25
vs Similar (14)
1.14
1.64
1.20
1.20
1.11
1.89
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
1.25
3.00
1.50
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.37
1.19
1.50
0.71
1.21
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
1.38
0.67
1.67
0.57
1.14
vs Similar (17)
1.24
1.35
1.50
1.40
0.86
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.6%
Under 1.5
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.4%
@ 1.83+1.5%
Under 2.5
47.6%
@ 1.90-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.2%
Under 3.5
69.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.2%
No
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
2-1
8.9%
1-0
8.1%
1-2 ✓
7.7%
0-0
7.4%
2-0
6.9%
0-1
6.8%
2-2
5.7%
Annan Athletic goals ↓
Stirling goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
6.8%
5.1%
2.2%
0.7%
1
8.1%
13%
7.7%
3.3%
1.0%
2
6.9%
8.9%
5.7%
2.4%
0.8%
3
3.5%
4.4%
2.8%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.3%
1.7%
1.1%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Annan Athletic goals (down), columns = Stirling goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stirling
2.03
Dumbarton
1.72
Annan Athletic
1.42
East Fife
1.39
Forfar
1.33
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Stranraer
1.25
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Elgin
1.11
Albion Rvs
1.08
Annan Athletic is 0.61 points worse than Stirling in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 2.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stirling
1.86
Annan Athletic
1.69
East Fife
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.42
Dumbarton
1.36
Albion Rvs
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Stranraer
1.19
Forfar
1.03
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.00
Annan Athletic is 0.17 goals worse than Stirling in terms of goals scored per game (1.69 vs 1.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Stirling
1.03
Dumbarton
1.08
Forfar
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.31
Albion Rvs
1.33
East Fife
1.39
Annan Athletic
1.42
Stenhousemuir
1.53
Stranraer
1.58
Elgin
1.72
Annan Athletic is 0.39 goals worse than Stirling in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Annan Athletic
For 4.5 · Against 5.5 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 11.6 · Total 22.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stirling
For 4.3 · Against 3.4 · Total 7.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 9.5 · Total 20.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.7
9.5
3.9
3.4
4.3
21.9
21.5
22.2
vs Stronger (23)
9.4
10.1
8.8
4.0
3.4
4.6
20.9
20.8
21.0
vs Similar (22)
9.8
9.6
10.0
3.3
3.1
3.6
22.3
22.4
22.2
vs Weaker (5)
10.0
8.5
11.0
5.6
5.5
5.7
24.0
19.5
27.0
% over line
48%
56%
40%
56%
52%
60%
51%
33%
68%
% under line
52%
44%
60%
44%
48%
40%
49%
67%
32%
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
8.5
8.8
3.9
3.1
4.8
22.5
22.8
22.2
vs Stronger (22)
8.0
7.9
8.1
3.7
2.8
4.5
22.8
23.9
21.7
vs Similar (28)
9.2
9.0
9.4
4.1
3.3
5.1
22.3
22.0
22.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
30%
35%
25%
56%
38%
75%
50%
58%
42%
% under line
70%
65%
75%
44%
62%
25%
50%
42%
58%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Dumbarton
10.8
Stenhousemuir
9.9
Annan Athletic
9.6
Forfar
9.4
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.3
East Fife
9.3
Stranraer
9.1
Albion Rvs
8.9
Elgin
8.7
Stirling
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Stranraer
4.1
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.0
Stirling
3.9
Dumbarton
3.9
Annan Athletic
3.9
Elgin
3.8
Stenhousemuir
3.7
Albion Rvs
3.2
East Fife
3.2
Forfar
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Elgin
22.6
Stirling
22.5
Forfar
22.1
Stranraer
21.9
Dumbarton
21.9
Annan Athletic
21.9
Stenhousemuir
21.7
Albion Rvs
21.0
East Fife
21.0
Bonnyrigg Rose
19.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
41.2%
Under 9.5
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
60.0%
Under 3.5
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
47.5%
Under 21.5
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.03
0.80
0.93
0.73
1.13
vs Stronger (12)
0.92
1.00
0.75
1.12
1.25
0.75
vs Similar (14)
0.57
1.07
0.40
0.60
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.63
0.50
0.69
0.29
0.57
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
0.54
0.17
0.50
0.29
0.57
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.71
0.70
0.80
0.29
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.50
1.20
0.53
0.67
0.47
vs Stronger (12)
1.42
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.25
0.50
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.57
0.80
0.60
0.44
0.56
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.69
0.81
0.43
0.64
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
0.85
0.50
1.17
0.29
0.57
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.65
0.80
0.60
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stirling have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stirling have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stirling have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stirling have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dumbarton
East Fife
Forfar
Stenhousemuir
Stranraer
Elgin