Annan Athletic and Stirling face a tightly contested match, with the model favouring a home win but the odds show no clear dominator. The home side has a 40% chance of victory, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 34% chance of an away win. The expected total of goals is 3.0, yet the most likely total is 2 goals, occurring with a 23% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.2% chance. Annan, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.4 conceded; Stirling, on the road, averages 1.83 scored and 1.33 conceded versus similar teams. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 81.4%, Over 2.5 cards at 81.2%, Under 11.5 corners at 75.8%, Over 19.5 fouls at 75.4%, Under 5.5 cards at 72.4%, and Under 25.5 fouls at 71.7%. Annan’s recent form shows a win after a mixed run, while Stirling is returning from a defeat. The match is poised for a competitive contest, with the home side just edging ahead in the model’s assessment.
Results analysis
An unexpected 2-2 draw unfolded at Annan Athletic, extending the home side’s recent win but leaving the pre-match favourite, Home win, wrong. The model had given the home side a 40% chance of triumph, yet the match finished in a stalemate. The model’s selection for Over 1.5 goals, with an 81.4% probability, proved correct, as did the Over 2.5 cards pick at 81.2%. The Under 11.5 corners and Under 5.5 cards selections, at 75.8% and 72.4% respectively, missed, while the Over 19.5 fouls pick at 75.4% also fell short. The Under 25.5 fouls pick, with a 71.7% chance, hit. The match’s final score of 2-2 matched the model’s most likely 2-goal outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Annan Athletic win✗ Miss
39.8%
Avg Implied 35.6% · @ 2.58
Edge
+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.4%
Avg Implied 26.7% · @ 3.44
Edge
-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stirling win✗ Miss
33.8%
Avg Implied 37.8% · @ 2.43
Edge
-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.77
1.86
1.64
1.38
1.88
vs Stronger (14)
2.07
1.93
2.50
1.88
1.50
2.00
vs Similar (13)
1.31
1.77
1.00
1.40
1.50
2.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.03
2.07
1.00
1.40
1.07
vs Stronger (15)
1.20
1.07
1.33
1.33
1.11
0.89
vs Similar (15)
2.27
1.00
2.56
0.78
1.83
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.4%
Under 1.5
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.0%
@ 1.69+2.9%
Under 2.5
42.0%
@ 2.07-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.6%
Under 3.5
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.6%
No
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
8.0%
1-0
6.6%
2-2 ✓
6.3%
2-0
6.1%
0-0
6.0%
0-1
6.0%
Annan Athletic goals ↓
Stirling goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
6.0%
5.1%
2.4%
0.9%
1
6.6%
12%
8.0%
3.8%
1.4%
2
6.1%
8.8%
6.3%
3.0%
1.1%
3
3.2%
4.6%
3.3%
1.6%
0.6%
4
1.3%
1.8%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Annan Athletic goals (down), columns = Stirling goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stirling
2.03
Dumbarton
1.72
Annan Athletic
1.42
East Fife
1.39
Forfar
1.33
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Stranraer
1.25
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Elgin
1.11
Albion Rvs
1.08
Annan Athletic is 0.61 points worse than Stirling in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 2.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stirling
1.86
Annan Athletic
1.69
East Fife
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.42
Dumbarton
1.36
Albion Rvs
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Stranraer
1.19
Forfar
1.03
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.00
Annan Athletic is 0.17 goals worse than Stirling in terms of goals scored per game (1.69 vs 1.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Stirling
1.03
Dumbarton
1.08
Forfar
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.31
Albion Rvs
1.33
East Fife
1.39
Annan Athletic
1.42
Stenhousemuir
1.53
Stranraer
1.58
Elgin
1.72
Annan Athletic is 0.39 goals worse than Stirling in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Annan Athletic
For 5.7 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.2 · Against 9.7 · Total 17.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stirling
For 5.8 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 11.6 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.1
10.2
3.7
3.5
3.9
20.8
21.7
19.9
vs Stronger (23)
9.3
9.5
9.0
3.3
2.9
3.7
19.9
19.5
20.4
vs Similar (21)
10.2
9.2
11.0
3.6
3.6
3.6
22.0
25.0
19.8
vs Weaker (6)
9.0
7.3
10.7
5.7
5.7
5.7
19.7
20.3
19.0
% over line
50%
48%
52%
54%
56%
52%
43%
38%
48%
% under line
50%
52%
48%
46%
44%
48%
57%
62%
52%
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.0
8.8
4.0
3.2
4.8
22.1
21.3
22.9
vs Stronger (24)
8.5
7.5
9.2
4.4
3.8
4.8
23.5
24.5
22.8
vs Similar (26)
9.2
9.9
8.2
3.6
2.7
4.8
20.8
19.1
23.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
32%
40%
24%
56%
36%
76%
52%
44%
60%
% under line
68%
60%
76%
44%
64%
24%
48%
56%
40%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Dumbarton
10.5
Stenhousemuir
10.2
Forfar
10.1
Annan Athletic
9.6
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.6
Stranraer
9.4
Albion Rvs
9.3
East Fife
9.1
Stirling
8.9
Elgin
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Dumbarton
4.3
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.3
Stranraer
4.3
Elgin
4.2
Stenhousemuir
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Albion Rvs
3.9
East Fife
3.9
Annan Athletic
3.7
Forfar
3.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Elgin
22.6
Albion Rvs
22.2
Stirling
22.1
Forfar
21.9
Bonnyrigg Rose
21.5
Stranraer
21.4
Stenhousemuir
21.1
East Fife
20.8
Annan Athletic
20.8
Dumbarton
20.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
47.0%
Under 9.5
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
63.6%
Under 3.5
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
60.0%
Under 21.5
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.07
0.57
1.00
0.62
1.12
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
1.29
0.62
1.38
0.67
1.17
vs Similar (13)
0.54
1.00
0.40
0.60
0.62
1.25
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.57
1.20
0.47
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (15)
0.60
0.53
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.44
vs Similar (15)
1.40
0.60
1.67
0.33
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.70
1.29
0.64
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (14)
1.43
0.64
1.88
0.50
0.83
0.83
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.77
0.60
0.80
0.88
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.47
0.87
0.53
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (15)
0.60
0.53
0.83
0.67
0.44
0.44
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.40
0.89
0.44
0.83
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stirling have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stirling have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stirling have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stirling have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dumbarton
East Fife
Forfar
Stenhousemuir
Stranraer
Elgin