Annan Athletic are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with a 52% chance of victory, a 25% chance of a draw and a 23% chance of Stirling pulling off an upset. The match is expected to see 2.9 goals on average, with the most likely total being two goals, a 24% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12% chance, a score that sits comfortably within the expected goal range. Annan’s home form shows they average three goals scored and only 0.75 conceded against similar opposition, while Stirling’s away record is one goal scored and one conceded versus comparable teams. The model’s selections include Under 25.5 fouls at 84.8%, Over 1.5 goals at 79.9%, Over 2.5 cards at 79.6% (miss), Under 5.5 cards at 74.5%, Under 23.5 fouls at 73.0%, and Over 8.5 corners at 72.0%. The final outcome will likely mirror the forecast with Annan Athletic winning 2-1.
Results analysis
Annan Athletic’s recent win over Dumbarton kept their form on a positive trajectory, and the model’s 52% favourite call for a home victory proved correct as the match finished 2-1 in their favour. The predicted 2-0 scoreline was close to the actual 2-1 result, and the most likely total of 2 goals came within reach. The model’s selections delivered a strong performance: Under 25.5 fouls hit at 84.8%, Over 1.5 hit at 79.9%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 74.5%, Under 23.5 fouls hit at 73.0%, and Over 8.5 corners hit at 72.0%. Only Over 2.5 cards missed, falling short of the 79.6% probability. Overall, the predictions aligned well with the outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Annan Athletic win✓ Hit
52.0%
Avg Implied 33.8% · @ 2.71
Edge
+18.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.4%
Avg Implied 26.6% · @ 3.44
Edge
-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stirling win✗ Miss
22.6%
Avg Implied 39.6% · @ 2.31
Edge
-17.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.83
1.73
1.53
1.13
2.13
vs Stronger (22)
1.18
1.95
1.27
1.82
1.09
2.09
vs Similar (8)
2.12
1.50
3.00
0.75
1.25
2.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.43
1.60
1.20
0.53
1.67
vs Stronger (22)
0.95
1.64
1.55
1.36
0.36
1.91
vs Similar (8)
1.38
0.88
1.75
0.75
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.9%
Under 1.5
20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.8%
@ 1.68+0.3%
Under 2.5
44.2%
@ 2.10-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.5%
Under 3.5
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.4%
No
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
2-1 ✓
9.8%
2-0
8.7%
1-0
8.6%
0-0
6.5%
1-2
6.1%
3-1
5.8%
2-2
5.5%
Annan Athletic goals ↓
Stirling goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
5.0%
3.4%
1.3%
0.4%
1
8.6%
12%
6.1%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.7%
9.8%
5.5%
2.1%
0.6%
3
5.2%
5.8%
3.3%
1.2%
0.3%
4
2.3%
2.6%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Annan Athletic goals (down), columns = Stirling goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Falkirk
2.50
Hamilton
2.06
Alloa
1.56
Montrose
1.47
Cove Rangers
1.36
Kelty Hearts
1.22
Queen of Sth
1.14
Annan Athletic
1.08
Stirling
1.08
Edinburgh City
0.39
Annan Athletic and Stirling are level in average points per game (both 1.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Falkirk
2.67
Hamilton
2.03
Alloa
1.67
Cove Rangers
1.61
Montrose
1.61
Annan Athletic
1.53
Kelty Hearts
1.33
Queen of Sth
1.28
Stirling
1.08
Edinburgh City
1.06
Annan Athletic is 0.44 goals better than Stirling in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Falkirk
0.78
Hamilton
0.78
Queen of Sth
1.47
Alloa
1.53
Montrose
1.58
Stirling
1.61
Kelty Hearts
1.75
Cove Rangers
1.75
Annan Athletic
1.89
Edinburgh City
2.72
Annan Athletic is 0.28 goals worse than Stirling in terms of goals conceded per game (1.89 vs 1.61).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Annan Athletic
For 4.5 · Against 5.1 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 12.5 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stirling
For 3.8 · Against 7.3 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 9.7 · Total 20.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.0
9.4
4.6
4.7
4.5
20.1
20.9
19.2
vs Stronger (31)
9.0
9.2
8.7
4.5
4.6
4.5
20.0
20.4
19.7
vs Similar (16)
10.9
11.6
10.2
4.7
4.8
4.6
21.3
22.2
20.4
vs Weaker (3)
10.3
9.0
13.0
4.0
4.5
3.0
14.7
20.0
4.0
% over line
46%
46%
46%
68%
73%
62%
38%
46%
29%
% under line
54%
54%
54%
32%
27%
38%
62%
54%
71%
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
9.6
10.9
4.0
4.1
4.0
20.4
19.7
21.1
vs Stronger (31)
9.9
9.1
10.8
4.2
4.4
4.1
20.7
20.2
21.2
vs Similar (19)
10.8
10.5
11.2
3.7
3.6
3.8
19.8
19.0
20.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
62%
52%
72%
54%
44%
64%
42%
32%
52%
% under line
38%
48%
28%
46%
56%
36%
58%
68%
48%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kelty Hearts
11.1
Hamilton
10.8
Stirling
10.3
Falkirk
10.3
Montrose
10.1
Queen of Sth
10.0
Annan Athletic
9.7
Cove Rangers
9.7
Edinburgh City
9.6
Alloa
9.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Annan Athletic
4.6
Montrose
4.3
Falkirk
4.2
Hamilton
4.1
Stirling
4.0
Kelty Hearts
3.8
Queen of Sth
3.7
Cove Rangers
3.4
Alloa
3.4
Edinburgh City
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Kelty Hearts
22.4
Montrose
22.0
Falkirk
22.0
Hamilton
21.3
Stirling
20.4
Annan Athletic
20.1
Queen of Sth
20.1
Edinburgh City
20.0
Cove Rangers
19.7
Alloa
19.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
60.2%
Under 9.5
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
61.4%
Under 3.5
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
42.6%
Under 21.5
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.90
0.87
1.07
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (22)
0.50
0.91
0.64
1.27
0.36
0.55
vs Similar (8)
1.12
0.88
1.50
0.50
0.75
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.67
0.80
0.53
0.20
0.80
vs Stronger (22)
0.45
0.73
0.82
0.55
0.09
0.91
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.93
0.87
0.47
0.67
1.40
vs Stronger (22)
0.68
1.05
0.64
0.55
0.73
1.55
vs Similar (8)
1.00
0.62
1.50
0.25
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.77
0.80
0.67
0.33
0.87
vs Stronger (22)
0.50
0.91
0.73
0.82
0.27
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.38
1.00
0.25
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (27)
€6m
KH (4)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stirling have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (9)
€2m
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stirling have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (5)
€1m
MON (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stirling have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (13)
€3m
KH (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stirling have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League One 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →