Annan Athletic’s recent win over Dumbarton suggests they are still finding their rhythm at home, yet their average of 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded against similar opposition indicates a modest attack and a somewhat leaky defense. Stirling, on the road, has already bounced back from a 0-4 loss to Elgin, and their away form shows 2.0 goals scored and 1.57 conceded, pointing to a sharper finishing touch. The model projects a high-scoring affair with an expected 3.3 goals and a most likely total of 3 goals, giving a 22% chance that the final tally will be exactly three. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.2% probability. The favourite result is an away win, with a 38% chance for Stirling, a 37% chance for Annan, and a 25% chance of a draw. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 84.7%, Under 5.5 cards at 78.9%, Under 25.5 fouls at 77.4%, and Over 2.5 cards at 75.9%.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Stirling, failed to deliver, as the match finished 3-3, a draw that left the model’s call wrong. The final score of 3-3 matched the actual result, a surprise after the home side’s recent win and the away side’s recent defeat. The model had picked an away win with a 38% probability, but the outcome proved a draw. The suggested picks were mixed: Over 1.5 goals hit at 84.7%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 75.9%, while Under 5.5 cards and Under 25.5 fouls missed at 78.9% and 77.4% respectively. The game’s 3-goal total aligned with the most likely scoreline of 1-2, 1-1 or 2-1, each sharing 8.3% or 11.2% probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Annan Athletic win✗ Miss
37.2%
Avg Implied 49.0% · @ 1.83
Edge
-11.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.2%
Avg Implied 25.8% · @ 3.48
Edge
-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stirling win✗ Miss
37.6%
Avg Implied 25.2% · @ 3.56
Edge
+12.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.90
1.92
1.85
0.76
1.94
vs Stronger (11)
1.45
2.45
2.60
1.60
0.50
3.17
vs Similar (12)
1.25
1.50
1.80
1.40
0.86
1.57
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
1.71
1.00
3.00
1.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.70
1.00
1.64
1.50
1.75
vs Stronger (12)
1.08
1.92
1.25
1.75
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (15)
1.40
1.33
0.88
1.12
2.00
1.57
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
2.67
1.00
3.50
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.7%
Under 1.5
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.4%
@ 1.69+8.9%
Under 2.5
36.6%
@ 2.02-8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.2%
Under 3.5
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.8%
No
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
8.3%
2-2
6.8%
0-1
5.2%
1-0
5.2%
0-2
5.1%
2-0
5.1%
Annan Athletic goals ↓
Stirling goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.8%
5.2%
5.1%
2.8%
1.1%
1
5.2%
11%
8.3%
4.5%
1.9%
2
5.1%
8.3%
6.8%
3.7%
1.5%
3
2.7%
4.5%
3.7%
2.0%
0.8%
4
1.1%
1.8%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Annan Athletic goals (down), columns = Stirling goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
East Kilbride
1.92
Spartans
1.78
Clyde
1.56
Forfar
1.39
Stranraer
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Annan Athletic
1.14
Dumbarton
1.11
Edinburgh City
1.08
Stirling
1.06
Annan Athletic is 0.08 points better than Stirling in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
East Kilbride
2.14
Spartans
1.67
Clyde
1.61
Elgin
1.42
Forfar
1.42
Annan Athletic
1.31
Dumbarton
1.31
Stirling
1.28
Stranraer
1.28
Edinburgh City
1.25
Annan Athletic is 0.03 goals better than Stirling in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.28).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Spartans
1.08
Clyde
1.14
Stranraer
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Forfar
1.31
Elgin
1.53
Annan Athletic
1.61
Dumbarton
1.69
Stirling
1.75
Edinburgh City
2.00
Annan Athletic is 0.14 goals better than Stirling in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 1.75).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Annan Athletic
For 6.2 · Against 4.3 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 13.6 · Total 24.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stirling
For 4.8 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 8.6 · Total 18.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.7
10.1
3.4
2.8
3.8
21.7
21.6
21.7
vs Stronger (26)
9.5
8.9
10.2
3.3
3.2
3.3
20.6
22.0
19.1
vs Similar (17)
9.6
9.7
9.4
3.5
2.1
4.8
23.1
21.3
24.6
vs Weaker (7)
12.3
12.7
12.0
3.3
3.0
3.5
21.3
21.0
21.7
% over line
53%
48%
59%
50%
42%
58%
53%
52%
55%
% under line
47%
52%
41%
50%
58%
42%
47%
48%
45%
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.8
10.5
3.6
3.6
3.6
20.7
20.3
21.2
vs Stronger (24)
10.9
11.0
10.9
3.7
3.4
3.9
20.7
20.2
21.2
vs Similar (22)
10.7
11.2
10.1
3.5
3.5
3.4
21.0
21.0
20.9
vs Weaker (4)
9.5
9.0
11.0
4.2
4.7
3.0
19.5
18.0
24.0
% over line
59%
70%
48%
50%
48%
52%
39%
35%
43%
% under line
41%
30%
52%
50%
52%
48%
61%
65%
57%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.9
East Kilbride
10.9
Elgin
10.6
Dumbarton
10.4
Stranraer
10.4
Annan Athletic
9.8
Clyde
9.5
Edinburgh City
9.3
Forfar
9.1
Spartans
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.7
Edinburgh City
5.1
Forfar
4.8
Elgin
4.6
Clyde
4.5
Spartans
4.2
Stirling
4.1
Stranraer
4.1
Annan Athletic
3.7
Dumbarton
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
East Kilbride
27.0
Forfar
24.4
Edinburgh City
24.3
Elgin
22.7
Clyde
22.1
Stranraer
21.7
Annan Athletic
21.4
Stirling
20.6
Dumbarton
20.5
Spartans
20.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
57.8%
Under 9.5
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
56.2%
Under 3.5
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
53.2%
Under 21.5
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.93
0.69
1.15
0.35
0.76
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.27
1.00
1.20
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (12)
0.25
0.58
0.20
0.60
0.29
0.57
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.83
0.36
0.93
0.56
0.75
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
0.83
0.25
1.25
0.38
0.62
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.73
0.50
0.50
0.71
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
1.33
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.97
1.23
0.69
0.41
1.18
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
1.18
1.60
0.40
0.17
1.83
vs Similar (12)
1.00
0.92
1.60
0.80
0.57
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
0.29
0.71
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.87
0.64
0.71
0.94
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
1.08
1.00
0.50
0.62
1.38
vs Similar (15)
0.80
0.60
0.38
0.62
1.29
0.57
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stirling have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
EK (3)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stirling have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stirling have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stirling have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
East Kilbride
Spartans
Clyde
Forfar
Stranraer
Elgin
Dumbarton
Edinburgh City