The contest between Annan Athletic and Stranraer is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. Home victory carries a 32% chance, a draw 29%, and the visitors 39%. The expected total goals sit at 2.5, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.9% probability. Annan’s recent outing was a 2-0 win over Dumbarton, showing they can score twice and keep a clean sheet, while Stranraer, playing away against a stronger side, averages 1.36 goals scored and 1.09 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 goals at 75% and Over 1.5 goals at 73.3%. These are the only picks offered, each with its own probability. The match remains finely balanced, but the data lean toward Stranraer taking the win.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Stranraer, failed to deliver an away win, and the match ended in a 2-2 draw. The model had picked an away win with a 39% probability, but that call proved wrong. The final score of 2-2 matched the model’s most likely total of two goals, yet the 2-2 result was not the predicted scoreline. The suggested picks were mixed: Under 3.5 goals, with a 75% probability, missed, while Over 1.5 goals, at 73.3%, hit. Both sides entered the game on a win, each having won their most recent match 2-0, but neither could secure the victory the model expected.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Annan Athletic win✗ Miss
31.6%
Avg Implied 39.2% · @ 2.34
Edge
-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
29.2%
Avg Implied 26.4% · @ 3.47
Edge
+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stranraer win✗ Miss
39.2%
Avg Implied 34.4% · @ 2.67
Edge
+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.27
1.33
1.67
1.13
0.87
vs Stronger (17)
1.12
0.94
1.14
1.29
1.10
0.70
vs Similar (11)
1.36
1.82
1.50
2.00
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
-
-
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.13
1.60
1.20
1.33
1.07
vs Stronger (23)
1.52
0.96
1.67
0.83
1.36
1.09
vs Similar (7)
1.29
1.71
1.33
2.67
1.25
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.3%
Under 1.5
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.6%
@ 1.79-5.6%
Under 2.5
53.4%
@ 1.95+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
25.0%
Under 3.5
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.7%
No
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
0-1
9.4%
0-0
9.2%
1-2
8.6%
1-0
8.1%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
7.2%
2-0
5.6%
Annan Athletic goals ↓
Stranraer goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.2%
9.4%
7.2%
3.2%
1.1%
1
8.1%
14%
8.6%
3.8%
1.3%
2
5.6%
7.5%
5.1%
2.3%
0.8%
3
2.2%
3.0%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.7%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Annan Athletic goals (down), columns = Stranraer goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kelty Hearts
2.25
Forfar
1.67
Annan Athletic
1.64
Edinburgh City
1.44
Stenhousemuir
1.36
Stranraer
1.31
Stirling
1.17
Albion Rvs
1.08
Elgin
1.03
Cowdenbeath
0.81
Annan Athletic is 0.33 points better than Stranraer in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 1.31).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kelty Hearts
1.89
Annan Athletic
1.78
Forfar
1.58
Stranraer
1.39
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Edinburgh City
1.19
Stirling
1.14
Albion Rvs
1.03
Elgin
0.92
Cowdenbeath
0.78
Annan Athletic is 0.39 goals better than Stranraer in terms of goals scored per game (1.78 vs 1.39).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kelty Hearts
0.78
Forfar
1.00
Stenhousemuir
1.28
Stirling
1.28
Cowdenbeath
1.36
Edinburgh City
1.36
Annan Athletic
1.42
Elgin
1.42
Stranraer
1.50
Albion Rvs
1.61
Annan Athletic is 0.08 goals better than Stranraer in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Annan Athletic
For 4.8 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 10.7 · Total 20.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stranraer
For 4.0 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 14.8 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.5
9.5
3.8
3.7
3.9
24.1
26.0
22.0
vs Stronger (29)
9.5
9.5
9.5
4.1
4.2
4.1
24.0
27.6
20.5
vs Similar (18)
8.9
9.0
8.7
3.3
3.1
3.7
23.7
23.6
23.7
vs Weaker (3)
12.7
14.0
12.0
3.3
4.0
3.0
28.0
29.0
27.5
% over line
44%
50%
38%
58%
58%
58%
66%
73%
58%
% under line
56%
50%
62%
42%
42%
42%
34%
27%
42%
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.4
9.4
3.5
3.2
3.8
22.8
23.8
21.9
vs Stronger (38)
9.3
8.9
9.6
3.5
3.2
3.8
22.4
23.7
21.2
vs Similar (12)
9.8
11.2
8.7
3.6
3.4
3.7
24.0
24.2
23.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
50%
42%
50%
33%
65%
58%
62%
54%
% under line
54%
50%
58%
50%
67%
35%
42%
38%
46%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Albion Rvs
10.3
Stirling
10.2
Elgin
10.0
Stenhousemuir
9.9
Cowdenbeath
9.9
Annan Athletic
9.5
Stranraer
9.4
Kelty Hearts
9.4
Edinburgh City
9.0
Forfar
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cowdenbeath
4.3
Elgin
4.2
Stirling
3.9
Annan Athletic
3.8
Stenhousemuir
3.8
Edinburgh City
3.7
Stranraer
3.5
Forfar
3.2
Albion Rvs
3.1
Kelty Hearts
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Annan Athletic
24.1
Stirling
23.5
Cowdenbeath
23.5
Stranraer
22.8
Stenhousemuir
22.7
Forfar
22.2
Elgin
22.1
Edinburgh City
22.0
Albion Rvs
21.8
Kelty Hearts
20.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.47
0.53
0.67
0.40
0.27
vs Stronger (17)
0.41
0.29
0.43
0.29
0.40
0.30
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.82
0.62
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
-
-
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.67
0.80
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (23)
0.61
0.57
0.67
0.58
0.55
0.55
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.86
0.67
1.67
0.25
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.80
0.80
1.00
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (17)
0.71
0.65
0.71
1.00
0.70
0.40
vs Similar (11)
0.82
1.00
0.88
1.00
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.50
0.93
0.40
0.87
0.60
vs Stronger (23)
0.91
0.39
1.00
0.25
0.82
0.55
vs Similar (7)
0.86
0.86
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (4)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stranraer have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stranraer have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stranraer have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kelty Hearts
Forfar
Edinburgh City
Stenhousemuir
Stirling
Elgin
Cowdenbeath