Annan Athletic’s recent win and a 2-0 victory over Dumbarton suggest a sharp start, while Stranraer’s 2-0 win at Kelty Hearts keeps them competitive on the road. The model favours a home win, with a 39% chance for Annan, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 35% chance for Stranraer. The expected total of 3.2 goals points to a lively encounter, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 11.5% probability. Annan, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, whereas Stranraer, away against a stronger opponent, averages 1.7 scored and 1.6 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 83.8%, Under 5.5 cards at 82.0%, Under 25.5 fouls at 80.2%, Under 11.5 corners at 76.6%, and Over 2.5 cards at 72.7%. The model’s selection for a home win remains the most probable outcome.
Results analysis
Annan Athletic’s win extended their recent run, and the Pythia model’s prediction of a home victory proved correct. The final score was 4-1, confirming the favoured outcome. The model had assigned a 39% probability to a home win, and its selection was right. The suggested picks all hit: Over 1.5 goals with an 83.8% chance, Under 5.5 cards at 82.0%, Under 25.5 fouls at 80.2%, Under 11.5 corners at 76.6%, and Over 2.5 cards at 72.7%. The match delivered a 4-1 result, with the home side comfortably securing the win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Annan Athletic win✓ Hit
39.5%
Avg Implied 43.2% · @ 2.12
Edge
-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.5%
Avg Implied 27.3% · @ 3.35
Edge
-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stranraer win✗ Miss
35.0%
Avg Implied 29.5% · @ 3.10
Edge
+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.17
1.60
1.33
1.87
1.00
vs Stronger (14)
2.29
0.86
2.40
0.80
2.22
0.89
vs Similar (13)
1.08
1.54
1.11
1.56
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.63
1.00
1.62
1.64
1.64
vs Stronger (23)
1.22
1.43
0.85
1.31
1.70
1.60
vs Similar (7)
1.57
2.29
1.67
3.00
1.50
1.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.8%
Under 1.5
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.9%
@ 1.81+10.4%
Under 2.5
38.1%
@ 1.92-10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
39.6%
Under 3.5
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.6%
No
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.1%
2-2
6.7%
1-0
5.7%
2-0
5.6%
0-1
5.3%
0-0
5.1%
Annan Athletic goals ↓
Stranraer goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
5.3%
4.9%
2.5%
1.0%
1
5.7%
11%
8.1%
4.2%
1.6%
2
5.6%
8.6%
6.7%
3.4%
1.3%
3
3.1%
4.7%
3.7%
1.9%
0.7%
4
1.3%
2.0%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Annan Athletic goals (down), columns = Stranraer goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kelty Hearts
2.25
Forfar
1.67
Annan Athletic
1.64
Edinburgh City
1.44
Stenhousemuir
1.36
Stranraer
1.31
Stirling
1.17
Albion Rvs
1.08
Elgin
1.03
Cowdenbeath
0.81
Annan Athletic is 0.33 points better than Stranraer in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 1.31).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kelty Hearts
1.89
Annan Athletic
1.78
Forfar
1.58
Stranraer
1.39
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Edinburgh City
1.19
Stirling
1.14
Albion Rvs
1.03
Elgin
0.92
Cowdenbeath
0.78
Annan Athletic is 0.39 goals better than Stranraer in terms of goals scored per game (1.78 vs 1.39).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kelty Hearts
0.78
Forfar
1.00
Stenhousemuir
1.28
Stirling
1.28
Cowdenbeath
1.36
Edinburgh City
1.36
Annan Athletic
1.42
Elgin
1.42
Stranraer
1.50
Albion Rvs
1.61
Annan Athletic is 0.08 goals better than Stranraer in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Annan Athletic
For 3.5 · Against 5.9 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 11.6 · Total 22.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stranraer
For 5.0 · Against 3.8 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.1 · Against 12.3 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.0
9.4
4.0
3.6
4.4
22.8
23.6
22.0
vs Stronger (26)
9.5
10.3
8.9
4.1
3.9
4.3
22.5
24.7
20.8
vs Similar (19)
9.5
9.4
9.6
3.5
3.1
4.1
22.5
22.3
22.7
vs Weaker (5)
11.4
11.5
11.3
5.4
5.5
5.3
25.8
24.5
26.7
% over line
48%
60%
36%
60%
60%
60%
54%
48%
60%
% under line
52%
40%
64%
40%
40%
40%
46%
52%
40%
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.8
9.2
4.0
3.9
4.2
23.2
23.3
23.0
vs Stronger (41)
8.7
8.5
8.8
4.1
4.0
4.2
22.7
23.1
22.2
vs Similar (9)
10.7
10.5
10.8
3.8
3.5
4.0
25.3
24.5
26.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
40%
46%
33%
56%
42%
71%
58%
62%
54%
% under line
60%
54%
67%
44%
58%
29%
42%
38%
46%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Cowdenbeath
9.8
Stenhousemuir
9.7
Annan Athletic
9.7
Albion Rvs
9.4
Stirling
9.3
Elgin
9.1
Kelty Hearts
9.1
Forfar
9.0
Stranraer
9.0
Edinburgh City
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Stirling
4.2
Elgin
4.1
Stranraer
4.0
Annan Athletic
4.0
Cowdenbeath
3.9
Stenhousemuir
3.8
Edinburgh City
3.5
Forfar
3.3
Kelty Hearts
3.3
Albion Rvs
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stirling
23.5
Stranraer
23.2
Annan Athletic
22.8
Stenhousemuir
22.6
Cowdenbeath
22.4
Elgin
22.3
Forfar
22.1
Albion Rvs
21.9
Edinburgh City
21.0
Kelty Hearts
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
46.1%
Under 9.5
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
52.1%
Under 3.5
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
49.4%
Under 21.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.67
0.47
0.73
0.87
0.60
vs Stronger (14)
0.86
0.57
0.60
0.60
1.00
0.56
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.77
0.33
0.78
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.83
0.62
0.88
0.64
0.79
vs Stronger (23)
0.65
0.83
0.62
0.77
0.70
0.90
vs Similar (7)
0.57
0.86
0.67
1.33
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.50
1.13
0.60
1.00
0.40
vs Stronger (14)
1.43
0.29
1.80
0.20
1.22
0.33
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.77
0.78
0.78
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.80
0.38
0.75
1.00
0.86
vs Stronger (23)
0.57
0.61
0.23
0.54
1.00
0.70
vs Similar (7)
1.00
1.43
1.00
1.67
1.00
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (4)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stranraer have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stranraer have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stranraer have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kelty Hearts
Forfar
Edinburgh City
Stenhousemuir
Stirling
Elgin
Cowdenbeath