Annan Athletic, fresh from a 2-0 win over Dumbarton, will face Stranraer who also came off a 2-0 victory against Kelty Hearts. The model sees a home win as the most likely outcome, with a 45% chance, a draw at 23%, and an away win at 32%. The expected total goals is 3.7, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 9.4% probability. Annan’s home form against weaker opposition shows an average of four goals scored and one conceded, while Stranraer’s away form against stronger teams yields 2.1 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Suggested selections include Over 1.5 goals at 88.8%, Under 5.5 cards at 77.5%, Over 2.5 cards at 77.1%, Under 25.5 fouls at 74.7%, Under 11.5 corners at 73.0%, Over 19.5 fouls at 72.6%, BTTS Yes at 70.9%, and Over 2.5 at 70.7% with an 18% edge. The model’s strongest disagreement with the market lies in the Over 2.5 goals pick, where the edge suggests a higher probability than typical odds.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Annan Athletic, failed to deliver, as the match finished 1-1, a draw that left the model’s pick wrong. The model had given the home side a 45% chance of victory, but the result was a stalemate. Both teams entered the game on a win, with Annan’s recent form noted as “coming off a win” after a 2-0 victory over Dumbarton, and Stranraer likewise coming off a 2-0 win against Kelty Hearts. The model’s selections were mixed: Over 1.5 goals hit at 88.8%, Under 5.5 cards missed at 77.5%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 77.1%, Under 25.5 fouls hit at 74.7%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 73.0%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 72.6%, BTTS Yes hit at 70.9%, and Over 2.5 missed at 70.7%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Annan Athletic win✗ Miss
44.6%
Avg Implied 43.4% · @ 2.11
Edge
+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
23.2%
Avg Implied 27.2% · @ 3.37
Edge
-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stranraer win✗ Miss
32.1%
Avg Implied 29.4% · @ 3.11
Edge
+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.80
1.93
1.64
1.56
1.94
vs Stronger (13)
2.08
2.08
2.33
2.17
1.86
2.00
vs Similar (14)
1.43
1.71
1.29
1.29
1.57
2.14
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
1.00
4.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.80
1.38
1.62
1.71
2.00
vs Stronger (23)
1.61
1.61
1.23
1.46
2.10
1.80
vs Similar (7)
1.29
2.43
2.00
2.33
0.75
2.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.8%
Under 1.5
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
70.7%
@ 1.76+17.7%
Under 2.5
29.3%
@ 1.98-17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
49.6%
Under 3.5
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
70.9%
No
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
9.4%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
7.2%
2-2
7.1%
3-1
5.6%
2-0
5.1%
3-2
4.7%
1-0
4.3%
Annan Athletic goals ↓
Stranraer goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.4%
3.5%
3.6%
2.0%
0.8%
1
4.3%
9.4%
7.2%
4.0%
1.7%
2
5.1%
8.5%
7.1%
4.0%
1.7%
3
3.4%
5.6%
4.7%
2.6%
1.1%
4
1.7%
2.8%
2.3%
1.3%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Annan Athletic goals (down), columns = Stranraer goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stirling
2.03
Dumbarton
1.72
Annan Athletic
1.42
East Fife
1.39
Forfar
1.33
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Stranraer
1.25
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Elgin
1.11
Albion Rvs
1.08
Annan Athletic is 0.17 points better than Stranraer in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stirling
1.86
Annan Athletic
1.69
East Fife
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.42
Dumbarton
1.36
Albion Rvs
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Stranraer
1.19
Forfar
1.03
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.00
Annan Athletic is 0.50 goals better than Stranraer in terms of goals scored per game (1.69 vs 1.19).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Stirling
1.03
Dumbarton
1.08
Forfar
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.31
Albion Rvs
1.33
East Fife
1.39
Annan Athletic
1.42
Stenhousemuir
1.53
Stranraer
1.58
Elgin
1.72
Annan Athletic is 0.17 goals better than Stranraer in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.58).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Annan Athletic
For 4.3 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 13.5 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stranraer
For 6.0 · Against 5.1 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 1.4 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 11.5 · Total 24.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.5
9.2
4.0
3.6
4.5
22.2
22.5
22.0
vs Stronger (23)
8.7
9.9
7.7
4.1
3.3
4.8
21.2
20.8
21.5
vs Similar (22)
9.9
9.4
10.5
3.6
3.5
3.7
22.9
24.3
21.2
vs Weaker (5)
10.0
8.5
11.0
5.6
5.5
5.7
24.0
19.5
27.0
% over line
44%
50%
38%
62%
58%
65%
55%
43%
65%
% under line
56%
50%
62%
38%
42%
35%
45%
57%
35%
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
8.8
10.2
4.3
4.3
4.3
22.4
22.8
22.0
vs Stronger (38)
9.2
8.9
9.6
4.6
4.3
4.9
22.5
22.9
22.1
vs Similar (12)
10.2
8.4
11.4
3.5
4.4
2.9
22.2
22.6
22.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
50%
46%
62%
62%
62%
56%
62%
50%
% under line
52%
50%
54%
38%
38%
38%
44%
38%
50%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stenhousemuir
10.2
Dumbarton
10.1
Forfar
9.5
Stranraer
9.4
Annan Athletic
9.3
Albion Rvs
8.8
Bonnyrigg Rose
8.8
East Fife
8.8
Elgin
8.7
Stirling
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Stranraer
4.3
Dumbarton
4.2
Annan Athletic
4.0
Elgin
4.0
Stenhousemuir
3.9
Bonnyrigg Rose
3.9
Stirling
3.8
Albion Rvs
3.5
East Fife
3.3
Forfar
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Elgin
22.8
Stranraer
22.4
Forfar
22.4
Annan Athletic
22.2
Stirling
22.2
Stenhousemuir
21.7
Dumbarton
21.5
Bonnyrigg Rose
21.5
Albion Rvs
21.4
East Fife
20.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
50.4%
Under 9.5
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
57.8%
Under 3.5
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
56.6%
Under 21.5
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.10
0.71
1.00
0.75
1.19
vs Stronger (13)
0.77
1.23
0.67
1.50
0.86
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.64
1.00
0.43
0.57
0.86
1.43
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.87
0.75
0.62
0.86
1.14
vs Stronger (23)
0.91
0.87
0.85
0.69
1.00
1.10
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.86
0.33
0.33
0.50
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.70
1.21
0.64
0.81
0.75
vs Stronger (13)
1.31
0.85
1.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.71
0.86
0.71
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.93
0.62
1.00
0.86
0.86
vs Stronger (23)
0.70
0.74
0.38
0.77
1.10
0.70
vs Similar (7)
0.86
1.57
1.67
2.00
0.25
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
70.7%
1.76
-
-
-
-
-
+17.7%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stranraer have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stranraer have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stranraer have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stirling
Dumbarton
East Fife
Forfar
Stenhousemuir
Elgin