Annan Athletic’s recent win over Dumbarton suggests they are ready to push for a home victory, and the model backs a home win with a 50% probability versus a 24% draw and 27% away win. The expected total of 3.3 goals points to a lively encounter, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 10.6% chance. Home form shows the Saints averaging one goal scored and one conceded against weaker opposition, while Stranraer, playing away against a stronger side, averages 1.33 goals for and 1.44 against. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 85.6%, Under 25.5 fouls at 82.1%, Over 2.5 cards at 78.9%, and Under 5.5 cards at 75.4%. The home win probability is 50%, the draw 24%, and the away win 27%.
Results analysis
Annan Athletic’s win-streak ended in a 0-0 stalemate, a shock to the model that had tipped a home victory at 50 percent. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was wrong, and the match finished as a draw. The model’s other selections were mixed: Over 1.5 goals, at 85.6 percent, missed; Under 25.5 fouls, at 82.1 percent, hit; Over 2.5 cards, at 78.9 percent, hit; and Under 5.5 cards, at 75.4 percent, hit. The game’s most likely score was 1-1, yet the scoreline settled on 0-0, confirming the unexpected outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Annan Athletic win✗ Miss
49.6%
Avg Implied 53.8% · @ 1.71
Edge
-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
23.9%
Avg Implied 24.1% · @ 3.82
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stranraer win✗ Miss
26.5%
Avg Implied 22.1% · @ 4.16
Edge
+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.57
2.00
1.47
1.47
1.67
vs Stronger (14)
2.21
1.50
2.86
1.29
1.57
1.71
vs Similar (13)
1.46
1.77
1.29
1.71
1.67
1.83
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.53
1.56
1.38
1.00
1.71
vs Stronger (20)
1.45
1.45
1.55
1.45
1.33
1.44
vs Similar (10)
1.00
1.70
1.60
1.20
0.40
2.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
85.6%
Under 1.5
14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
64.9%
@ 1.64+7.9%
Under 2.5
35.1%
@ 2.17-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.8%
Under 3.5
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
65.4%
No
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
6.7%
1-2
6.7%
2-2
6.5%
3-1
6.1%
1-0
5.9%
0-0 ✓
4.5%
Annan Athletic goals ↓
Stranraer goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
4.0%
3.4%
1.6%
0.6%
1
5.9%
11%
6.7%
3.1%
1.1%
2
6.7%
9.4%
6.5%
3.0%
1.1%
3
4.4%
6.1%
4.2%
2.0%
0.7%
4
2.1%
3.0%
2.1%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Annan Athletic goals (down), columns = Stranraer goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stirling
2.03
Dumbarton
1.72
Annan Athletic
1.42
East Fife
1.39
Forfar
1.33
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Stranraer
1.25
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Elgin
1.11
Albion Rvs
1.08
Annan Athletic is 0.17 points better than Stranraer in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stirling
1.86
Annan Athletic
1.69
East Fife
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.42
Dumbarton
1.36
Albion Rvs
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Stranraer
1.19
Forfar
1.03
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.00
Annan Athletic is 0.50 goals better than Stranraer in terms of goals scored per game (1.69 vs 1.19).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Stirling
1.03
Dumbarton
1.08
Forfar
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.31
Albion Rvs
1.33
East Fife
1.39
Annan Athletic
1.42
Stenhousemuir
1.53
Stranraer
1.58
Elgin
1.72
Annan Athletic is 0.17 goals better than Stranraer in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.58).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Annan Athletic
For 5.8 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 11.2 · Total 21.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stranraer
For 4.2 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 9.0 · Total 19.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.6
10.0
3.7
3.6
3.9
21.0
22.2
19.8
vs Stronger (23)
8.8
9.0
8.5
3.3
3.1
3.5
20.5
20.7
20.3
vs Similar (22)
11.1
10.8
11.4
3.8
3.9
3.7
21.8
24.0
19.6
vs Weaker (5)
9.0
6.5
10.7
5.4
5.0
5.7
19.6
20.5
19.0
% over line
50%
48%
52%
54%
60%
48%
43%
42%
44%
% under line
50%
52%
48%
46%
40%
52%
57%
58%
56%
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.1
10.0
4.2
4.2
4.2
21.0
21.4
20.5
vs Stronger (36)
9.2
9.3
9.2
4.6
4.2
5.1
21.2
21.4
20.9
vs Similar (14)
10.3
8.6
12.0
3.1
4.1
2.1
20.5
21.4
19.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
46%
46%
56%
54%
58%
50%
58%
42%
% under line
54%
54%
54%
44%
46%
42%
50%
42%
58%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stenhousemuir
10.8
Dumbarton
10.4
Forfar
10.4
Annan Athletic
9.8
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.7
Stranraer
9.5
Albion Rvs
9.4
East Fife
9.3
Stirling
9.2
Elgin
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Elgin
4.4
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.3
Dumbarton
4.3
Stranraer
4.2
Stirling
4.1
Albion Rvs
4.0
East Fife
3.9
Stenhousemuir
3.9
Annan Athletic
3.7
Forfar
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Elgin
22.8
Forfar
21.9
Albion Rvs
21.9
Bonnyrigg Rose
21.8
Stirling
21.4
East Fife
21.3
Annan Athletic
21.0
Stranraer
21.0
Stenhousemuir
20.8
Dumbarton
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
54.7%
Under 9.5
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
60.3%
Under 3.5
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
46.8%
Under 21.5
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.80
0.73
0.80
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
1.07
0.71
1.14
0.57
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.62
0.71
0.57
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.90
0.81
0.69
0.57
1.14
vs Stronger (20)
0.85
0.90
0.91
0.73
0.78
1.11
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.90
0.60
0.60
0.20
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.77
1.27
0.67
0.87
0.87
vs Stronger (14)
1.57
0.43
2.14
0.14
1.00
0.71
vs Similar (13)
0.77
1.15
0.57
1.14
1.00
1.17
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.63
0.75
0.69
0.43
0.57
vs Stronger (20)
0.60
0.55
0.64
0.73
0.56
0.33
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.80
1.00
0.60
0.20
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stranraer have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stranraer have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stranraer have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stirling
Dumbarton
East Fife
Forfar
Stenhousemuir
Elgin