Annan Athletic’s recent win over Dumbarton signals a sharp return to form, and the model projects a home win with a 47% chance, a draw 25% and an away win 27%. The expected total of 3.2 goals points to a high-scoring affair, with the most likely total being three goals at 22%. The single scoreline the model favours is 1-1, carrying a 11.4% probability. Annan’s home form against weaker opposition shows they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded, while Stranraer, playing away against stronger teams, averages 1.25 scored and 1.62 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.4%), Under 6.5 (95.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.3%), Under 5.5 (90.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (89.0%), Home +2 handicap (87.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (84.7%) and Home over 0.5 goals (83.6%). These picks reflect the anticipated offensive output and the likelihood of a modest scoreline.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Annan Athletic win
47.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stranraer win
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
2.00
1.47
1.93
0.93
2.07
vs Stronger (12)
1.17
2.92
1.17
3.33
1.17
2.50
vs Similar (10)
1.40
1.30
2.00
0.80
0.80
1.80
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
1.50
1.25
1.25
0.75
1.75
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.40
1.12
1.06
1.21
1.79
vs Stronger (19)
1.16
1.32
1.09
1.09
1.25
1.62
vs Similar (11)
1.18
1.55
1.20
1.00
1.17
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.3%
Under 1.5
16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.0%
Under 2.5
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.7%
Under 3.5
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
62.8%
No
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
7.0%
1-2
7.0%
1-0
6.7%
2-2
6.3%
3-1
5.7%
0-0
5.3%
Annan Athletic goals ↓
Stranraer goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
4.7%
3.8%
1.7%
0.6%
1
6.7%
11%
7.0%
3.1%
1.0%
2
7.0%
9.4%
6.3%
2.8%
0.9%
3
4.2%
5.7%
3.8%
1.7%
0.6%
4
1.9%
2.6%
1.7%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Annan Athletic goals (down), columns = Stranraer goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Elgin
2.20
Clyde
2.00
Forfar
1.60
Edinburgh City
1.60
Stranraer
1.40
Spartans
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Kelty Hearts
1.20
Stirling
0.80
Dumbarton
0.60
Annan Athletic is 0.20 points worse than Stranraer in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 1.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Elgin
3.40
Spartans
2.40
Clyde
2.20
Edinburgh City
1.40
Kelty Hearts
1.40
Forfar
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Stirling
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Dumbarton
0.40
Annan Athletic and Stranraer are level in goals scored per game (both 1.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Forfar
1.00
Elgin
1.00
Clyde
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.40
Edinburgh City
1.60
Dumbarton
2.00
Kelty Hearts
2.00
Spartans
2.20
Stirling
2.40
Annan Athletic is 0.20 goals worse than Stranraer in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Annan Athletic
For 4.0 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 13.3 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stranraer
For 7.3 · Against 3.0 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 11.7 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.7
10.2
3.0
2.9
3.1
23.7
23.9
23.5
vs Stronger (19)
9.5
9.6
9.3
3.1
2.5
3.8
24.7
25.4
24.2
vs Similar (19)
9.1
8.4
10.0
3.2
3.2
3.1
24.1
23.9
24.4
vs Weaker (12)
12.1
12.5
11.8
2.6
3.0
2.3
21.4
22.0
20.8
% over line
50%
47%
53%
42%
40%
44%
71%
65%
76%
% under line
50%
53%
47%
58%
60%
56%
29%
35%
24%
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.2
10.8
11.6
2.7
2.4
3.0
22.2
22.7
21.7
vs Stronger (31)
11.3
10.7
12.0
2.5
1.9
3.3
22.7
22.9
22.4
vs Similar (19)
11.1
11.0
11.1
3.1
3.6
2.7
21.7
22.5
20.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
67%
71%
62%
42%
37%
48%
55%
53%
56%
% under line
33%
29%
38%
58%
63%
52%
45%
47%
44%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.9
Dumbarton
10.4
Stranraer
10.3
Elgin
10.3
Annan Athletic
9.9
Clyde
9.8
Kelty Hearts
9.5
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.2
Forfar
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Edinburgh City
5.1
Forfar
4.3
Elgin
4.3
Kelty Hearts
4.2
Clyde
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
Spartans
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Dumbarton
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Forfar
24.0
Edinburgh City
23.9
Elgin
22.7
Kelty Hearts
22.5
Stranraer
22.3
Annan Athletic
22.2
Clyde
21.7
Stirling
21.1
Dumbarton
20.5
Spartans
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
55.5%
Under 9.5
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.4%
Under 3.5
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
59.0%
Under 21.5
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Annan Athletic or Draw
72.5%
Avg Implied -
47%
25%
27%
covers Annan Athletic + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic or Stranraer
75.0%
Avg Implied -
47%
25%
27%
covers Annan Athletic + Stranraer
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Stranraer
52.5%
Avg Implied -
47%
25%
27%
covers Draw + Stranraer
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5
Over
83.6%
Under
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5
Over
54.0%
Under
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5
Over
27.2%
Under
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 3.5
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 0.5
Over
73.9%
Under
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5
Over
38.8%
Under
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5
Over
15.3%
Under
84.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 3.5
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Annan Athletic, so a minus line means Annan Athletic give that many goals of a start and Stranraer receive them. At -1, Annan Athletic must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Annan Athletic win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Annan Athletic)
Annan Athletic -2
12.0%
Draw -2
14.7%
Stranraer +2
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Annan Athletic)
Annan Athletic -1
26.7%
Draw -1
20.8%
Stranraer +1
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Annan Athletic)
Annan Athletic +1
72.5%
Draw +1
15.1%
Stranraer -1
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Annan Athletic)
Annan Athletic +2
87.7%
Draw +2
8.1%
Stranraer -2
4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.73
1.00
0.60
0.27
0.87
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
0.83
0.50
0.83
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.30
1.40
0.20
0.00
0.40
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
1.12
1.25
0.75
0.25
1.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.80
0.50
0.56
0.79
1.07
vs Stronger (19)
0.68
0.74
0.55
0.55
0.88
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.91
0.40
0.60
0.67
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.27
0.47
1.33
0.67
1.20
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
2.08
0.67
2.50
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (10)
0.70
1.00
0.60
0.60
0.80
1.40
vs Weaker (8)
0.25
0.38
0.00
0.50
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.62
0.50
0.43
0.71
vs Stronger (19)
0.47
0.58
0.55
0.55
0.38
0.62
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.64
0.80
0.40
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (4)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stranraer have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stranraer have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stranraer have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
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Elgin
Clyde
Forfar
Edinburgh City
Spartans
Kelty Hearts
Stirling
Dumbarton