Aragvi Dusheti’s recent draw streak and modest 1.31 goals per game at home give them little edge, while Gareji’s 1.67 goals per game on the road and a two-game winning run make the away side the clear favourite. The model rates an away win at 69%, a draw at 19% and a home win at 12%, so the predicted result is an away victory. The expected total of 3.2 goals points to a lively match, with the most likely total being three goals (22% probability). The single score the model favours is 0-2 for Gareji, with an 11% chance. Aragvi Dusheti’s home form shows they concede 1.23 goals and score 1.31, while Gareji’s away form indicates 1.44 conceded and 1.67 scored against similar opponents. Suggested picks include Home under 3.5 goals at 98.8%, Under 7.5 at 98.3%, Away +2 handicap at 96.2%, Under 6.5 at 95.5%, Home under 2.5 goals at 94.1%, Away over 0.5 goals at 90.3%, Under 5.5 at 89.3% and Draw or Away at 88.4%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aragvi Dusheti win
12.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
20.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gareji win
67.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aragvi Dusheti
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.27
1.33
1.33
1.20
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.30
1.22
1.31
1.23
1.29
1.21
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.67
1.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gareji
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.63
1.25
2.06
1.50
1.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.28
1.72
1.00
2.00
1.64
1.36
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
1.20
3.00
2.50
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.2%
Under 1.5
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.2%
Under 2.5
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.9%
Under 3.5
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.1%
No
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
10.8%
1-2
9.8%
1-1
9.5%
0-1
8.7%
0-3
8.1%
1-3
7.3%
0-0
5.1%
0-4
4.6%
Aragvi Dusheti goals ↓
Gareji goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
8.7%
11%
8.1%
4.6%
1
3.0%
9.5%
9.8%
7.3%
4.1%
2
1.7%
3.9%
4.4%
3.3%
1.9%
3
0.5%
1.2%
1.3%
1.0%
0.6%
4
0.1%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aragvi Dusheti goals (down), columns = Gareji goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Aragvi Dusheti is 0.25 points worse than Gareji in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Aragvi Dusheti is 0.12 goals worse than Gareji in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Aragvi Dusheti and Gareji are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Aragvi Dusheti or Draw
32.9%
Avg Implied -
13%
20%
67%
covers Aragvi Dusheti + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti or Gareji
79.8%
Avg Implied -
13%
20%
67%
covers Aragvi Dusheti + Gareji
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Gareji
87.2%
Avg Implied -
13%
20%
67%
covers Draw + Gareji
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 0.5
Over
59.5%
Under
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 1.5
Over
22.9%
Under
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 2.5
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 3.5
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 0.5
Over
89.5%
Under
10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5
Over
65.9%
Under
34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5
Over
39.3%
Under
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 3.5
Over
19.2%
Under
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Aragvi Dusheti, so a minus line means Aragvi Dusheti give that many goals of a start and Gareji receive them. At -1, Aragvi Dusheti must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Aragvi Dusheti win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Aragvi Dusheti)
Aragvi Dusheti -2
1.1%
Draw -2
3.3%
Gareji +2
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Aragvi Dusheti)
Aragvi Dusheti -1
4.3%
Draw -1
8.5%
Gareji +1
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Aragvi Dusheti)
Aragvi Dusheti +1
32.9%
Draw +1
22.4%
Gareji -1
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Aragvi Dusheti)
Aragvi Dusheti +2
55.3%
Draw +2
20.3%
Gareji -2
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aragvi Dusheti
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.67
0.60
0.40
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.52
0.48
0.62
0.54
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gareji
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.62
1.06
0.29
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.32
0.80
0.43
1.07
0.18
0.45
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.60
2.00
1.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aragvi Dusheti
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
0.67
0.73
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.78
0.74
0.69
0.69
0.86
0.79
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gareji
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.87
0.62
1.00
1.21
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.96
0.92
0.57
0.93
1.45
0.91
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.60
1.00
1.50
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Telavi
Samtredia
Sioni
Odishi 1919
Gori
Shturmi
Kolkheti Poti
Merani Martvili