Aragvi Dusheti are expected to win this match, with the team's recent form a storyline to consider. After two straight defeats, Aragvi Dusheti will look to bounce back against Gori. Meanwhile, Gori are on a 2-game winning run.
The model predicts a 50% chance of a home win, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 25% chance of an away win. The most likely result is a home win, with an expected total of 3.1 goals and the most likely total being 2 goals. The single most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 11.4%.
Aragvi Dusheti have scored an average of 2 goals and conceded 4 at home, particularly against weaker opponents. Gori, on the other hand, have scored 1 goal and conceded 0.5 at away matches, especially against stronger opponents.
The model's selection is Over 1.5, with an 82.8% probability. The suggested picks include Over 1.5, with a probability of 82.8%. The model's selection of Over 1.5 has a 82.8% chance of occurring.
Aragvi Dusheti have a 50% chance of winning, a 25% chance of drawing, and a 25% chance of losing. The model's selection of Over 1.5 has a 82.8% chance of occurring.
Results analysis
Aragvi Dusheti’s 2-game winning run carried into the match, and the Pythia model’s favourite - a home win - proved correct as the final score was 1-0. The model had given the home side a 51 % chance of triumph, a 26 % chance of a draw and a 23 % chance of an away win. Its suggested picks all hit: Under 7.5 (99 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.1 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.8 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97.2 %), Under 6.5 (97.1 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.6 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.9 %) and Under 5.5 (92.6 %). The game’s actual result matched the model’s prediction, confirming the accuracy of its selections.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aragvi Dusheti win✓ Hit
51.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gori win✗ Miss
23.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aragvi Dusheti
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.33
1.33
1.40
1.20
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.29
1.25
1.29
1.21
1.29
1.29
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
2.50
2.00
4.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Gori) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gori
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.17
2.50
2.00
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (5)
1.60
1.20
2.50
2.00
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
79.6%
Under 1.5
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.3%
Under 2.5
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.0%
Under 3.5
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.2%
No
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
2-1
9.7%
1-0 ✓
8.7%
2-0
8.6%
0-0
6.6%
1-2
6.2%
3-1
5.8%
2-2
5.5%
Aragvi Dusheti goals ↓
Gori goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
5.1%
3.5%
1.3%
0.4%
1
8.7%
12%
6.2%
2.3%
0.7%
2
8.6%
9.7%
5.5%
2.1%
0.6%
3
5.1%
5.8%
3.2%
1.2%
0.3%
4
2.3%
2.5%
1.4%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aragvi Dusheti goals (down), columns = Gori goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Aragvi Dusheti is 0.25 points better than Gori in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Aragvi Dusheti and Gori are level in goals scored per game (both 1.38).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Aragvi Dusheti is 0.12 goals worse than Gori in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Aragvi Dusheti or Draw✓ Hit
76.9%
Avg Implied -
51%
26%
23%
covers Aragvi Dusheti + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti or Gori✓ Hit
74.4%
Avg Implied -
51%
26%
23%
covers Aragvi Dusheti + Gori
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Gori✗ Miss
48.6%
Avg Implied -
51%
26%
23%
covers Draw + Gori
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
83.0%
Under
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
52.8%
Under
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
26.2%
Under
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
67.6%
Under
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
31.1%
Under
68.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Aragvi Dusheti, so a minus line means Aragvi Dusheti give that many goals of a start and Gori receive them. At -1, Aragvi Dusheti must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Aragvi Dusheti win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Gori) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gori
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.25
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.60
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.9%
Under 0.5
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
29.2%
Under 1.5
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.9%
Under 2.5
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
41.7%
Under
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.5%
Under
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
38.8%
Under
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aragvi Dusheti
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.73
0.67
0.73
0.80
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.75
0.68
0.64
0.64
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Gori) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gori
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.67
1.50
1.00
0.75
0.50
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
0.60
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
79.9%
Under 0.5
20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
45.0%
Under 1.5
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.6%
Under 2.5
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
49.9%
Under
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.5%
Under
85.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
52.9%
Under
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.3%
Under
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Telavi
Gareji
Samtredia
Sioni
Odishi 1919
Shturmi
Kolkheti Poti
Merani Martvili