Aragvi Dusheti are tipped to win, with a 45% chance of triumph, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 28% chance of an Odishi 1919 victory. The match is expected to see 2.7 goals on average, with the most likely total of 2 goals at a 25% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is a 1-1 draw, with a 13.1% chance. Aragvi’s home form shows they score about 1.29 goals and concede 1.21 against opponents of similar strength, while Odishi 1919 on the road average 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded versus similar teams. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 99.3%, Under 6.5 at 97.8%, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.8%, Under 5.5 at 94.0%, Home under 3.5 goals at 92.6%, Away under 2.5 goals at 88.3%, Home +2 handicap at 88.3%, and Under 4.5 at 85.6%. The home side’s recent five-game run of two wins, one loss, and two wins, finishing with a 1-0 win over Gori, contrasts with Odishi’s last five of two losses, a draw, and two wins, after a 0-3 defeat to Samtredia.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aragvi Dusheti win
44.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Odishi 1919 win
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aragvi Dusheti
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.27
1.33
1.33
1.20
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.30
1.22
1.31
1.23
1.29
1.21
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.67
1.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Odishi 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Odishi 1919
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.20
1.40
1.00
0.80
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.29
1.00
1.25
1.00
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.67
2.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.1%
Under 1.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.7%
Under 2.5
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.6%
Under 3.5
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.0%
No
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
8.9%
2-0
7.8%
0-0
7.6%
1-2
7.0%
0-1
6.4%
2-2
5.5%
Aragvi Dusheti goals ↓
Odishi 1919 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
6.4%
4.5%
1.8%
0.5%
1
8.9%
13%
7.0%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.8%
9.3%
5.5%
2.2%
0.6%
3
4.1%
4.8%
2.9%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.6%
1.9%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aragvi Dusheti goals (down), columns = Odishi 1919 goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Aragvi Dusheti is 0.12 points better than Odishi 1919 in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Aragvi Dusheti is 0.50 goals better than Odishi 1919 in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 0.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Aragvi Dusheti is 0.12 goals worse than Odishi 1919 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Aragvi Dusheti or Draw
72.4%
Avg Implied -
45%
27%
28%
covers Aragvi Dusheti + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti or Odishi 1919
72.6%
Avg Implied -
45%
27%
28%
covers Aragvi Dusheti + Odishi 1919
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Odishi 1919
55.1%
Avg Implied -
45%
27%
28%
covers Draw + Odishi 1919
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 0.5
Over
79.0%
Under
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 1.5
Over
46.3%
Under
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 2.5
Over
20.7%
Under
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 3.5
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odishi 1919 over/under 0.5
Over
69.3%
Under
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odishi 1919 over/under 1.5
Over
33.1%
Under
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odishi 1919 over/under 2.5
Over
11.7%
Under
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odishi 1919 over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Aragvi Dusheti, so a minus line means Aragvi Dusheti give that many goals of a start and Odishi 1919 receive them. At -1, Aragvi Dusheti must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Aragvi Dusheti win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Aragvi Dusheti)
Aragvi Dusheti -2
9.5%
Draw -2
13.9%
Odishi 1919 +2
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Aragvi Dusheti)
Aragvi Dusheti -1
23.5%
Draw -1
21.5%
Odishi 1919 +1
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Aragvi Dusheti)
Aragvi Dusheti +1
72.4%
Draw +1
16.0%
Odishi 1919 -1
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Aragvi Dusheti)
Aragvi Dusheti +2
88.3%
Draw +2
8.0%
Odishi 1919 -2
3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aragvi Dusheti
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.67
0.60
0.40
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.52
0.48
0.62
0.54
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Odishi 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Odishi 1919
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.90
0.80
0.80
0.40
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.71
0.75
0.75
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odishi 1919 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odishi 1919 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odishi 1919 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aragvi Dusheti
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
0.67
0.73
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.78
0.74
0.69
0.69
0.86
0.79
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Odishi 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Odishi 1919
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.30
0.60
0.20
0.40
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.57
0.29
0.50
0.25
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odishi 1919 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odishi 1919 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odishi 1919 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Telavi
Gareji
Samtredia
Sioni
Gori
Shturmi
Kolkheti Poti
Merani Martvili