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Aragvi Dusheti vs Samtredia Result & Analysis

Date: 08/08/2026
Time: 17:00
Final 2-4
Aragvi Dusheti
Aragvi Dusheti
Vs
46%
25%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Samtredia
Samtredia
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Aragvi Dusheti will be looking to bounce back from their recent defeat, coming off a 0-1 loss to Telavi, but they have shown some resilience in their last five matches, LWDDW. Meanwhile, Samtredia are struggling with consecutive defeats, LLDLL, but they have a decent record away from home, averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.5 conceded against similar opponents.

The model predicts a home win, giving Aragvi Dusheti a 46% chance of victory, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 29% chance of an away win. The expected total goals is 3.2, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring 11.4% of the time.

Aragvi Dusheti has a decent home form, scoring 1.31 goals and conceding 1.38 against similar opponents, while Samtredia's away form is slightly weaker, with 1.33 goals scored and 1.5 conceded.

The model's selection is the Over 1.5, with an 83.7% probability, indicating a significant edge of 10%. The home win percentage is 46%, the draw percentage is 25%, and the away win percentage is 29%.

Results analysis

A stunning upset in the Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 as Samtredia came from behind to secure a 2-4 win away at Aragvi Dusheti, extending their recent run of mixed form after a win. This result marks a surprise turn of events, as the model had predicted a home win with a 46% probability. The model's selection, a home win, ultimately proved incorrect. The model's call was wrong, as the actual result was an away win. Meanwhile, the model's suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals hit with a 83.7% probability, as the final score indeed exceeded this threshold.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aragvi Dusheti win✗ Miss
46.2%
Avg Implied 39.7% · @ 2.27
Edge
+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.33
Pinnacle
2.32
Marathonbet
2.31
William Hil
2.30
Betano
2.30
Draw✗ Miss
25.1%
Avg Implied 28.1% · @ 3.20
Edge
-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.40
BetVictor
3.30
10Bet
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Dafabet
3.20
Samtredia win✓ Hit
28.8%
Avg Implied 32.2% · @ 2.80
Edge
-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.88
Dafabet
2.85
10Bet
2.85
Superbet
2.82
1xBet
2.80

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D22D01L23L10W11D11D32W01LA·LOK30/11H·SHT08/12A·SAB12/12H·SAB16/12H·LOK11/12A·LOK15/12H·MER29/05A·ODI13/06H·SIO17/06A·TEL22/06
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.331.401.271.131.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (29)1.311.341.401.271.211.43
vs Weaker (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SamtrediaSamtredia

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D21W32W01L12L23L22D12L23LA·LOK03/11H·SPA08/11A·DIN21/11H·GON25/11A·MES29/11H·MER06/12A·GAR30/05H·KOL13/06A·MER17/06A·SIO22/06
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.371.711.071.191.62
vs Stronger (30)1.431.371.711.071.191.62
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.7%
@ 1.25+11.2%
Under 1.5
16.3%
@ 3.29-11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Under
Superbet
3.30
1xBet
3.28
Marathonbet
3.28
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.7%
@ 1.84+11.6%
Under 2.5
38.3%
@ 1.85-11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathonbet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Bet365
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Under
Bet365
1.95
Superbet
1.85
BetVictor
1.84
Pinnacle
1.83
Betano
1.83
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
39.4%
@ 3.02+9.5%
Under 3.5
60.6%
@ 1.29-9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.05
Marathonbet
3.05
Superbet
2.95
Under
Superbet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.6%
@ 1.68+8.9%
No
36.4%
@ 2.03-8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.70
Superbet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
BetVictor
1.67
No
BetVictor
2.05
Superbet
2.05
1xBet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.00
William Hil
2.00

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%@ 5.95+4.4%
2-1
9.3%@ 8.09+4.1%
1-2
7.2%@ 9.50+2.8%
2-0
6.7%@ 9.87+2.5%
2-2
6.4%@ 11.41+2.8%
1-0
6.4%@ 7.51+0.9%
3-1
5.6%@ 15.00+2.8%
0-0
5.2%@ 9.71+0.9%
Aragvi Dusheti goals ↓
Samtredia goals →
01234
05.2%4.7%4.0%1.8%0.6%
16.4%11%7.2%3.3%1.2%
26.7%9.3%6.4%3.0%1.0%
34.0%5.6%3.9%1.8%0.6%
41.8%2.5%1.7%0.8%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aragvi Dusheti goals (down), columns = Samtredia goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Aragvi Dusheti is 0.12 points worse than Samtredia in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.62).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Aragvi Dusheti is 0.62 goals worse than Samtredia in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 2.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Aragvi Dusheti is 0.25 goals better than Samtredia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.50).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D11D00D11D10W00D11D22D00DA·LOK30/11H·SHT08/12A·SAB12/12H·SAB16/12H·LOK11/12A·LOK15/12H·MER29/05A·ODI13/06H·SIO17/06A·TEL22/06
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.530.670.530.330.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (29)0.520.550.670.530.360.57
vs Weaker (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SamtrediaSamtredia

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L20W20W00D02L02L01L10W11DA·LOK03/11H·SPA08/11A·DIN21/11H·GON25/11A·MES29/11H·MER06/12A·GAR30/05H·KOL13/06A·MER17/06A·SIO22/06
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.571.000.360.690.75
vs Stronger (30)0.830.571.000.360.690.75
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L11D11D01L12L00D11D00D10W01LA·LOK30/11H·SHT08/12A·SAB12/12H·SAB16/12H·LOK11/12A·LOK15/12H·MER29/05A·ODI13/06H·SIO17/06A·TEL22/06
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.800.730.730.800.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (29)0.790.790.730.730.860.86
vs Weaker (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SamtrediaSamtredia

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W01L12L01L10W21W21W02L12LA·LOK03/11H·SPA08/11A·DIN21/11H·GON25/11A·MES29/11H·MER06/12A·GAR30/05H·KOL13/06A·MER17/06A·SIO22/06
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.800.710.710.500.88
vs Stronger (30)0.600.800.710.710.500.88
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.7%1.25
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
--+11.2%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KP (3)
€0m
SAM (4)
€0m
GOR (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KP (2)
€0m
GOR (2)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAM (1)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
GOR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAM (2)
€0m
KP (1)
€0m
GOR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
AD wins
0
Draws
0
SAM wins

Head-to-head

Aragvi Dusheti vs Samtredia · H/A from AD
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/06/26ATelavi Vs AD1-0
17/06/26HAD Vs Sioni3-2
13/06/26AOdishi 1919 Vs AD1-1
29/05/26HAD Vs Merani Martvili1-1
15/12/25ALokomotivi Tbilisi Vs AD0-1
11/12/25HAD Vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi2-3
16/12/24HAD Vs Saburtalo II0-1
12/12/24ASaburtalo II Vs AD2-2
08/12/24HAD Vs Shturmi1-1
30/11/24ALokomotivi Tbilisi Vs AD1-0

SamtrediaSamtredia

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/06/26ASioni Vs SAM3-2
17/06/26AMerani Martvili Vs SAM2-1
13/06/26HSAM Vs Kolkheti Poti2-2
30/05/26AGareji Vs SAM3-2
06/12/25HSAM Vs Merani Martvili1-2
29/11/25AMeshakhte Vs SAM1-0
25/11/25HSAM Vs Gonio3-2
21/11/25ADinamo Tbilisi II Vs SAM1-2
08/11/25HSAM Vs Spaeri1-1
03/11/25ALokomotivi Tbilisi Vs SAM1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Aragvi Dusheti
Aragvi Dusheti
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDWL1.28
HomeDLLDW1.43
AwayLDWDL1.13
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %35%39%30%
AVG goals2.673.302.04
Over 1.5 %72%83%61%
Over 2.5 %48%57%39%
Over 3.5 %26%35%17%
Scored1.331.740.91
Conceded1.351.571.13
BTTS57%78%35%
Clean Sheet24%13%35%
Corners---
Cards---
Samtredia
Samtredia
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLL1.10
HomeWDWLD1.33
AwayWLLLL0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%29%23%
AVG goals2.502.252.73
Over 1.5 %70%71%69%
Over 2.5 %48%33%62%
Over 3.5 %24%21%27%
Scored1.181.251.12
Conceded1.321.001.62
BTTS58%58%58%
Clean Sheet18%21%15%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TelaviTelavi817
62%
2.1
83+5
1.4
38%
12%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.4
-
2GarejiGareji814
50%
1.8
1210+2
2.8
75%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
3SamtrediaSamtredia813
50%
1.6
1612+4
3.5
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.5
-
4SioniSioni813
50%
1.6
1111+0
2.8
62%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
5Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti812
38%
1.5
1110+1
2.6
75%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.2
-
6Odishi 1919Odishi 1919811
38%
1.4
79-2
2.0
62%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.1
-
7GoriGori810
38%
1.2
119+2
2.5
62%
38%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.1
-
8ShturmiShturmi88
25%
1.0
59-4
1.8
50%
38%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.1
-
9Kolkheti PotiKolkheti Poti86
0%
0.8
810-2
2.2
75%
38%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
10Merani MartviliMerani Martvili85
12%
0.6
511-6
2.0
75%
38%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →

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