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Aragvi Dusheti vs Shturmi Prediction & Stats

Date: 06/09/2026
Time: 16:00
Aragvi Dusheti
Aragvi Dusheti
Vs
42%
28%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Shturmi
Shturmi
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Aragvi Dusheti are tipped to lift a home win, the model’s pick, with a 42% chance of victory, a 28% chance of a draw and a 29% chance of Shturmi taking the win. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a moderate-scoring game, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.6% probability. Aragvi’s home form shows they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.21 conceded against similar opposition, while Shturmi’s away record is 0.87 scored and 1.13 conceded versus comparable teams. Recent results hint at a positive swing for the hosts, who are on a two-game winning run after a 1-0 victory over Gori, whereas Shturmi returned from two straight defeats and lost 1-3 to the same opponent. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.4%), Under 6.5 (98.2%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.9%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.8%), Under 5.5 (94.9%) and Home under 3.5 goals (94.0%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aragvi Dusheti win
42.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shturmi win
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-423L10W11D11D32W01L24L20W10W11DH·LOK11/12A·LOK15/12H·MER29/05A·ODI13/06H·SIO17/06A·TEL22/06H·SAM08/08A·GAR15/08H·GOR22/08A·KOL30/08
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.271.331.331.201.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)1.301.221.311.231.291.21
vs Weaker (3)1.001.671.502.000.001.00
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Shturmi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ShturmiShturmi

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W12L02L00D00D21W10W01L13LH·MER12/12A·MER16/12A·ODI30/05H·TEL13/06A·GAR17/06A·KOL22/06H·MER08/08A·SIO15/08H·SAM22/08A·GOR29/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.071.070.860.881.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)1.001.001.150.850.871.13
vs Weaker (2)0.502.000.001.001.003.00
Clean sheet %33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%8%017%126%222%314%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.0%
Under 1.5
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.9%
Under 2.5
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.0%
Under 3.5
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.2%
No
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-0
9.3%
2-1
9.0%
0-0
8.5%
2-0
7.6%
0-1
7.3%
1-2
7.2%
2-2
5.3%
Aragvi Dusheti goals ↓
Shturmi goals →
01234
08.5%7.3%5.0%2.0%0.6%
19.3%14%7.2%2.8%0.8%
27.6%9.0%5.3%2.1%0.6%
33.7%4.3%2.5%1.0%0.3%
41.3%1.6%0.9%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aragvi Dusheti goals (down), columns = Shturmi goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Aragvi Dusheti is 0.50 points better than Shturmi in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Aragvi Dusheti is 0.75 goals better than Shturmi in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 0.62).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Aragvi Dusheti is 0.12 goals worse than Shturmi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.12).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Aragvi Dusheti or Draw
70.6%
Avg Implied -
42%
28%
29%
covers Aragvi Dusheti + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti or Shturmi
71.6%
Avg Implied -
42%
28%
29%
covers Aragvi Dusheti + Shturmi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Shturmi
57.8%
Avg Implied -
42%
28%
29%
covers Draw + Shturmi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 0.5
Over
76.6%
Under
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 1.5
Over
42.6%
Under
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 2.5
Over
17.9%
Under
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 3.5
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 0.5
Over
69.1%
Under
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 1.5
Over
32.8%
Under
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 2.5
Over
11.5%
Under
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Aragvi Dusheti, so a minus line means Aragvi Dusheti give that many goals of a start and Shturmi receive them. At -1, Aragvi Dusheti must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Aragvi Dusheti win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Aragvi Dusheti)
Aragvi Dusheti -2
8.1%
Draw -2
13.0%
Shturmi +2
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Aragvi Dusheti)
Aragvi Dusheti -1
21.1%
Draw -1
21.2%
Shturmi +1
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Aragvi Dusheti)
Aragvi Dusheti +1
70.6%
Draw +1
16.9%
Shturmi -1
12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Aragvi Dusheti)
Aragvi Dusheti +2
87.5%
Draw +2
8.5%
Shturmi -2
4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W00D11D22D00D12L20W10W00DH·LOK11/12A·LOK15/12H·MER29/05A·ODI13/06H·SIO17/06A·TEL22/06H·SAM08/08A·GAR15/08H·GOR22/08A·KOL30/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.500.670.600.400.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.520.480.620.540.430.43
vs Weaker (3)0.670.671.001.000.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Shturmi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ShturmiShturmi

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W12L01L00D00D10W00D01L00DH·MER12/12A·MER16/12A·ODI30/05H·TEL13/06A·GAR17/06A·KOL22/06H·MER08/08A·SIO15/08H·SAM22/08A·GOR29/08
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.430.710.290.500.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)0.640.430.770.230.530.60
vs Weaker (2)0.000.500.001.000.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.3%
Under 0.5
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.9%
Under 1.5
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.2%
Under 2.5
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.6%
Under
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 1.5 HT
Over
17.4%
Under
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.3%
Under
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L00D11D00D10W01L12L00D00D11DH·LOK11/12A·LOK15/12H·MER29/05A·ODI13/06H·SIO17/06A·TEL22/06H·SAM08/08A·GAR15/08H·GOR22/08A·KOL30/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.770.670.730.800.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.780.740.690.690.860.79
vs Weaker (3)0.331.000.501.000.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Shturmi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ShturmiShturmi

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D00D01L00D00D11D10W00D13LH·MER12/12A·MER16/12A·ODI30/05H·TEL13/06A·GAR17/06A·KOL22/06H·MER08/08A·SIO15/08H·SAM22/08A·GOR29/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.630.360.570.380.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)0.360.570.380.620.330.53
vs Weaker (2)0.501.500.000.001.003.00
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.9%
Under 0.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.6%
Under 1.5
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.8%
Under 2.5
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 0.5 2H
Over
60.4%
Under
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.5%
Under
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
40.4%
Under
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.4%
Under
83.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.4%-------
Away under 2.5 HT goals98.9%-------
Under 6.598.2%-------
Away under 2.5 2H goals98.0%-------
Away under 3.5 goals96.8%-------
Home under 2.5 HT goals95.3%-------
Under 5.594.9%-------
Home under 3.5 goals94.0%-------
Away under 1.5 HT goals92.7%-------
Home under 2.5 2H goals92.4%-------
Under 2.5 HT goals88.8%-------
Away under 2.5 goals88.5%-------
Home +2 handicap87.5%-------
Under 4.587.3%-------
Away under 1.5 2H goals83.6%-------
Under 2.5 2H goals83.2%-------
Home under 1.5 HT goals82.6%-------
Home under 2.5 goals82.1%-------
Away +2 handicap78.9%-------
Home under 1.5 2H goals77.5%-------
Over 0.5 2H goals76.9%-------
Home over 0.5 goals76.6%-------
Over 1.575.0%-------
Under 3.573.0%-------
Home or Away71.6%-------
Home or Draw70.6%-------
Home +1 handicap70.6%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KP (3)
€0m
SAM (4)
€0m
GOR (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KP (2)
€0m
GOR (2)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAM (1)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
GOR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAM (2)
€0m
KP (1)
€0m
GOR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
0
AD wins
2
Draws
2
SHT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Aragvi Dusheti vs Shturmi · H/A from AD
DateH/AGameScore
08/12/24HAD Vs Shturmi1-1
30/09/24AShturmi Vs AD2-1
05/08/24HAD Vs Shturmi1-1
27/04/24AShturmi Vs AD1-0

Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26AKolkheti Poti Vs AD1-1
22/08/26HAD Vs Gori1-0
15/08/26AGareji Vs AD0-2
08/08/26HAD Vs Samtredia2-4
22/06/26ATelavi Vs AD1-0
17/06/26HAD Vs Sioni3-2
13/06/26AOdishi 1919 Vs AD1-1
29/05/26HAD Vs Merani Martvili1-1
15/12/25ALokomotivi Tbilisi Vs AD0-1
11/12/25HAD Vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi2-3

ShturmiShturmi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26AGori Vs SHT3-1
22/08/26HSHT Vs Samtredia0-1
15/08/26ASioni Vs SHT0-1
08/08/26HSHT Vs Merani Martvili2-1
22/06/26AKolkheti Poti Vs SHT0-0
17/06/26AGareji Vs SHT0-0
13/06/26HSHT Vs Telavi0-2
30/05/26AOdishi 1919 Vs SHT2-1
16/12/24AMerani Martvili Vs SHT0-1
12/12/24HSHT Vs Merani Martvili0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Aragvi Dusheti
Aragvi Dusheti
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWD1.32
HomeLDWLW1.44
AwayWDLWD1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%40%32%
AVG goals2.683.322.04
Over 1.5 %72%80%64%
Over 2.5 %46%56%36%
Over 3.5 %26%36%16%
Scored1.341.720.96
Conceded1.341.601.08
BTTS56%76%36%
Clean Sheet26%16%36%
Corners---
Cards---
Shturmi
Shturmi
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWLL1.22
HomeWLLWL1.68
AwayLDDWL0.79
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %33%50%17%
AVG goals2.332.142.50
Over 1.5 %63%59%67%
Over 2.5 %41%36%46%
Over 3.5 %20%9%29%
Scored1.041.230.88
Conceded1.280.911.62
BTTS52%41%62%
Clean Sheet30%32%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TelaviTelavi817
62%
2.1
83+5
1.4
38%
12%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.4
-
2GarejiGareji814
50%
1.8
1210+2
2.8
75%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
3SamtrediaSamtredia813
50%
1.6
1612+4
3.5
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.5
-
4SioniSioni813
50%
1.6
1111+0
2.8
62%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
5Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti812
38%
1.5
1110+1
2.6
75%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.2
-
6Odishi 1919Odishi 1919811
38%
1.4
79-2
2.0
62%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.1
-
7GoriGori810
38%
1.2
119+2
2.5
62%
38%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.1
-
8ShturmiShturmi88
25%
1.0
59-4
1.8
50%
38%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.1
-
9Kolkheti PotiKolkheti Poti86
0%
0.8
810-2
2.2
75%
38%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
10Merani MartviliMerani Martvili85
12%
0.6
511-6
2.0
75%
38%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →

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