Araks Ararat’s home form, averaging 2.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded against weaker opposition, suggests a potent attack that will likely see them net at least one goal. Their recent draw and the model’s 60% home win probability reinforce the expectation of a high-scoring affair. The opponent, Ararat-Armenia II, averages 1.33 goals scored and 2.44 conceded away against stronger teams, indicating a defensive frailty that should be exploited. The model’s pick is a home win, with a 60% chance, followed by a 22% draw and 18% away win. The average total goals is 3.3, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.1% probability. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.2%), Under 6.5 (95.0%), Home +2 handicap (92.8%), Away under 2.5 goals (89.4%), Under 5.5 (88.5%), Home over 0.5 goals (88.3%) and Over 1.5 (84.8%). Each selection is listed with its exact probability, and the model’s edge percentages are noted where provided.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Araks Ararat win
59.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II win
18.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Araks Ararat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.77
1.60
1.47
1.07
2.07
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (12)
1.08
2.17
1.29
1.43
0.80
3.20
vs Weaker (16)
1.69
1.31
2.14
1.29
1.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat-Armenia II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
2.00
1.67
2.07
1.20
1.93
vs Stronger (18)
1.72
2.39
1.90
2.20
1.50
2.62
vs Similar (12)
1.00
1.42
1.20
1.80
0.86
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Araks Ararat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.8%
Under 1.5
15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.7%
Under 2.5
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
41.6%
Under 3.5
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.8%
No
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.1%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.7%
1-0
7.2%
3-1
7.0%
3-0
6.2%
2-2
5.6%
1-2
5.2%
Araks Ararat goals ↓
Ararat-Armenia II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
3.3%
2.4%
0.9%
0.3%
1
7.2%
10%
5.2%
2.0%
0.6%
2
8.7%
9.8%
5.6%
2.1%
0.6%
3
6.2%
7.0%
4.0%
1.5%
0.4%
4
3.3%
3.8%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Araks Ararat goals (down), columns = Ararat-Armenia II goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
BKMA II
2.37
Hayq
2.27
Andranik
2.20
Pyunik II
1.47
Olympia Yerevan
1.30
Ararat II
1.27
Araks Ararat
1.23
Banants II
1.20
Noah II
1.03
Bentonit Ijevan
0.97
Mika
0.93
Ararat-Armenia II
0.80
Lernayin Artsakh
0.79
Sardarapat 2
0.74
Shirak II
0.60
Araks Ararat is 0.43 points better than Ararat-Armenia II in terms of average points per game (1.23 vs 0.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BKMA II
2.57
Andranik
2.53
Hayq
1.97
Ararat-Armenia II
1.53
Banants II
1.53
Olympia Yerevan
1.50
Ararat II
1.43
Pyunik II
1.43
Noah II
1.30
Araks Ararat
1.27
Shirak II
1.13
Bentonit Ijevan
1.10
Mika
1.07
Sardarapat 2
0.85
Lernayin Artsakh
0.76
Araks Ararat is 0.27 goals worse than Ararat-Armenia II in terms of goals scored per game (1.27 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hayq
0.80
Andranik
1.00
BKMA II
1.03
Pyunik II
1.43
Bentonit Ijevan
1.63
Araks Ararat
1.70
Olympia Yerevan
1.79
Banants II
1.80
Ararat II
1.93
Noah II
1.93
Mika
2.00
Ararat-Armenia II
2.07
Lernayin Artsakh
2.45
Shirak II
2.97
Sardarapat 2
3.15
Araks Ararat is 0.37 goals better than Ararat-Armenia II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.70 vs 2.07).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Araks Ararat or Draw
81.7%
Avg Implied -
60%
22%
18%
covers Araks Ararat + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat or Ararat-Armenia II
77.9%
Avg Implied -
60%
22%
18%
covers Araks Ararat + Ararat-Armenia II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ararat-Armenia II
40.4%
Avg Implied -
60%
22%
18%
covers Draw + Ararat-Armenia II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Araks Ararat over/under 0.5
Over
88.3%
Under
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 1.5
Over
63.3%
Under
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 2.5
Over
36.3%
Under
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 3.5
Over
17.1%
Under
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 0.5
Over
67.8%
Under
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 1.5
Over
31.3%
Under
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 2.5
Over
10.6%
Under
89.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 3.5
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Araks Ararat, so a minus line means Araks Ararat give that many goals of a start and Ararat-Armenia II receive them. At -1, Araks Ararat must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Araks Ararat win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Araks Ararat)
Araks Ararat -2
19.5%
Draw -2
18.2%
Ararat-Armenia II +2
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Araks Ararat)
Araks Ararat -1
37.7%
Draw -1
21.9%
Ararat-Armenia II +1
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Araks Ararat)
Araks Ararat +1
81.7%
Draw +1
11.1%
Ararat-Armenia II -1
7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Araks Ararat)
Araks Ararat +2
92.8%
Draw +2
5.1%
Ararat-Armenia II -2
2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Araks Ararat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.83
0.67
0.73
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.92
0.43
0.86
0.60
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
0.81
0.56
1.00
0.43
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat-Armenia II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.00
0.87
0.93
0.60
1.07
vs Stronger (18)
0.83
1.17
1.00
1.10
0.62
1.25
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.75
0.60
0.60
0.57
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Araks Ararat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Araks Ararat over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Araks Ararat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.93
0.93
0.73
0.47
1.13
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (12)
0.58
1.25
0.86
0.57
0.20
2.20
vs Weaker (16)
0.88
0.75
1.14
0.86
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat-Armenia II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.00
0.80
1.13
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (18)
0.89
1.22
0.90
1.10
0.88
1.38
vs Similar (12)
0.42
0.67
0.60
1.20
0.29
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Araks Ararat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Araks Ararat over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Armenia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olympia Yerevan
BKMA II
Pyunik II
Andranik
Mika
Lernayin Artsakh
Bentonit Ijevan
Banants II
Noah II
Shirak II
Sardarapat 2
Hayq
Ararat II