This Armenia: First League match between Araks Ararat and Ararat II is shaping up to be a high-scoring encounter, with an expected total of 3.4 goals. The home side, Araks Ararat, has been struggling in recent form, coming off a defeat and having a last score of 1-7 against Andranik. Meanwhile, Ararat II is still reeling from 5 straight defeats, including a 0-4 loss to the same opponent.
Araks Ararat is the favourite to win at home, with a 54% chance of victory, followed by a 23% chance of a draw and a 23% chance of an Ararat II win. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, although the model projects a total of 3 goals. Araks Ararat has a strong home record, scoring an average of 2.25 goals and conceding just 1.38, while Ararat II struggles away from home, scoring 1.14 goals and conceding 2.57. The model's selection is Over 1.5 goals, with a high probability of 86.5%. The suggested picks include Over 1.5, with a 86.5% chance, and the home win at 54%, the draw at 23% and the away win at 23%.
Results analysis
The home team, Araks Ararat, extended their winning streak with a 3-1 victory over Ararat II, coming off the back of a win in their previous match. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, carrying a pre-match probability of 54%. The model's call was also vindicated as the favoured outcome. The suggested picks largely came in, with the model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hitting, boasting a pre-match probability of 86.5%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Araks Ararat win✓ Hit
54.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ararat II win✗ Miss
23.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Araks Ararat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.70
1.53
1.47
1.00
1.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (12)
0.83
2.00
1.00
1.50
0.67
2.50
vs Weaker (16)
1.75
1.31
2.12
1.25
1.38
1.38
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
3.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
2.03
1.44
1.81
1.29
2.29
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
1.31
2.77
1.29
3.00
1.33
2.50
vs Weaker (15)
1.47
1.47
1.75
0.75
1.14
2.29
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Araks Ararat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.5%
Under 1.5
13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.4%
Under 2.5
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
44.6%
Under 3.5
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.3%
No
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.0%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
7.2%
3-1 ✓
6.6%
2-2
6.3%
1-2
6.0%
1-0
5.9%
3-0
5.0%
Araks Ararat goals ↓
Ararat II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.2%
3.4%
2.9%
1.3%
0.4%
1
5.9%
10.0%
6.0%
2.7%
0.9%
2
7.2%
9.5%
6.3%
2.8%
0.9%
3
5.0%
6.6%
4.4%
1.9%
0.6%
4
2.6%
3.5%
2.3%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Araks Ararat goals (down), columns = Ararat II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
BKMA II
2.37
Hayq
2.27
Andranik
2.20
Pyunik II
1.47
Olympia Yerevan
1.30
Ararat II
1.27
Araks Ararat
1.23
Banants II
1.20
Noah II
1.03
Bentonit Ijevan
0.97
Mika
0.93
Ararat-Armenia II
0.80
Lernayin Artsakh
0.79
Sardarapat 2
0.74
Shirak II
0.60
Araks Ararat is 0.03 points worse than Ararat II in terms of average points per game (1.23 vs 1.27).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BKMA II
2.57
Andranik
2.53
Hayq
1.97
Ararat-Armenia II
1.53
Banants II
1.53
Olympia Yerevan
1.50
Ararat II
1.43
Pyunik II
1.43
Noah II
1.30
Araks Ararat
1.27
Shirak II
1.13
Bentonit Ijevan
1.10
Mika
1.07
Sardarapat 2
0.85
Lernayin Artsakh
0.76
Araks Ararat is 0.17 goals worse than Ararat II in terms of goals scored per game (1.27 vs 1.43).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hayq
0.80
Andranik
1.00
BKMA II
1.03
Pyunik II
1.43
Bentonit Ijevan
1.63
Araks Ararat
1.70
Olympia Yerevan
1.79
Banants II
1.80
Ararat II
1.93
Noah II
1.93
Mika
2.00
Ararat-Armenia II
2.07
Lernayin Artsakh
2.45
Shirak II
2.97
Sardarapat 2
3.15
Araks Ararat is 0.23 goals better than Ararat II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.70 vs 1.93).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Araks Ararat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.77
0.73
0.73
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.83
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (16)
0.88
0.50
1.00
0.38
0.75
0.62
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.13
0.75
1.12
0.86
1.14
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.69
1.54
0.57
1.86
0.83
1.17
vs Weaker (15)
0.93
0.73
1.00
0.38
0.86
1.14
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Araks Ararat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Araks Ararat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Araks Ararat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.93
0.80
0.73
0.40
1.13
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (12)
0.33
1.17
0.50
0.50
0.17
1.83
vs Weaker (16)
0.88
0.81
1.12
0.88
0.62
0.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.90
0.69
0.69
0.43
1.14
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (13)
0.62
1.23
0.71
1.14
0.50
1.33
vs Weaker (15)
0.53
0.73
0.75
0.38
0.29
1.14
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Araks Ararat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Araks Ararat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Armenia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olympia Yerevan
BKMA II
Pyunik II
Andranik
Mika
Lernayin Artsakh
Bentonit Ijevan
Banants II
Noah II
Shirak II
Sardarapat 2
Ararat-Armenia II
Hayq