Araks Ararat are favoured to win at home, with a 50 % chance of victory, a 25 % chance of a draw and a 25 % chance of Noah II taking the win. The model predicts an average of 3.1 goals, but the most likely total is 2 goals, occurring 22 % of the time. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.3 % probability, reflecting the balanced nature of the contest.
Araks Ararat, playing at home against a weaker side, have been scoring 2.33 goals per game and conceding 1.33. Noah II, on the road against a stronger opponent, have not scored in their last five matches and have been conceding 2.25 goals on average. The recent form shows Araks coming off a 1-1 draw and Noah II off a 2-1 win, hinting at a tight encounter.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.5 %), Under 6.5 (95.9 %), Away under 3.5 goals (95.9 %), Under 5.5 (90.1 %), Home +2 handicap (88.9 %), Home under 3.5 goals (88.2 %), Away under 2.5 goals (86.1 %) and Home over 0.5 goals (84.4 %).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Araks Ararat win
49.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Noah II win
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Araks Ararat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.77
1.60
1.47
1.07
2.07
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (12)
1.08
2.17
1.29
1.43
0.80
3.20
vs Weaker (16)
1.69
1.31
2.14
1.29
1.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Noah II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Noah II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.97
1.47
1.87
1.13
2.07
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
2.11
0.50
2.50
0.20
1.80
vs Similar (12)
1.83
1.50
2.17
0.50
1.50
2.50
vs Weaker (9)
1.56
2.44
1.40
3.00
1.75
1.75
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Araks Ararat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.1%
Under 1.5
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.7%
Under 2.5
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.4%
Under 3.5
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
62.0%
No
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
7.5%
1-0
7.0%
1-2
6.6%
2-2
6.1%
3-1
5.9%
0-0
5.4%
Araks Ararat goals ↓
Noah II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
4.5%
3.6%
1.5%
0.5%
1
7.0%
11%
6.6%
2.8%
0.9%
2
7.5%
9.6%
6.1%
2.6%
0.8%
3
4.6%
5.9%
3.8%
1.6%
0.5%
4
2.1%
2.8%
1.8%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Araks Ararat goals (down), columns = Noah II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
BKMA II
2.37
Hayq
2.27
Andranik
2.20
Pyunik II
1.47
Olympia Yerevan
1.30
Ararat II
1.27
Araks Ararat
1.23
Banants II
1.20
Noah II
1.03
Bentonit Ijevan
0.97
Mika
0.93
Ararat-Armenia II
0.80
Lernayin Artsakh
0.79
Sardarapat 2
0.74
Shirak II
0.60
Araks Ararat is 0.20 points better than Noah II in terms of average points per game (1.23 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BKMA II
2.57
Andranik
2.53
Hayq
1.97
Ararat-Armenia II
1.53
Banants II
1.53
Olympia Yerevan
1.50
Ararat II
1.43
Pyunik II
1.43
Noah II
1.30
Araks Ararat
1.27
Shirak II
1.13
Bentonit Ijevan
1.10
Mika
1.07
Sardarapat 2
0.85
Lernayin Artsakh
0.76
Araks Ararat is 0.03 goals worse than Noah II in terms of goals scored per game (1.27 vs 1.30).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hayq
0.80
Andranik
1.00
BKMA II
1.03
Pyunik II
1.43
Bentonit Ijevan
1.63
Araks Ararat
1.70
Olympia Yerevan
1.79
Banants II
1.80
Ararat II
1.93
Noah II
1.93
Mika
2.00
Ararat-Armenia II
2.07
Lernayin Artsakh
2.45
Shirak II
2.97
Sardarapat 2
3.15
Araks Ararat is 0.23 goals better than Noah II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.70 vs 1.93).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Araks Ararat or Draw
74.6%
Avg Implied -
50%
25%
25%
covers Araks Ararat + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat or Noah II
75.3%
Avg Implied -
50%
25%
25%
covers Araks Ararat + Noah II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Noah II
50.2%
Avg Implied -
50%
25%
25%
covers Draw + Noah II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Araks Ararat over/under 0.5
Over
84.4%
Under
15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 1.5
Over
55.4%
Under
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 2.5
Over
28.5%
Under
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 3.5
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 0.5
Over
72.3%
Under
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 1.5
Over
36.7%
Under
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 2.5
Over
13.9%
Under
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 3.5
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Araks Ararat, so a minus line means Araks Ararat give that many goals of a start and Noah II receive them. At -1, Araks Ararat must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Araks Ararat win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Araks Ararat)
Araks Ararat -2
13.1%
Draw -2
15.5%
Noah II +2
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Araks Ararat)
Araks Ararat -1
28.6%
Draw -1
21.2%
Noah II +1
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Araks Ararat)
Araks Ararat +1
74.6%
Draw +1
14.4%
Noah II -1
11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Araks Ararat)
Araks Ararat +2
88.9%
Draw +2
7.4%
Noah II -2
3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Araks Ararat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.83
0.67
0.73
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.92
0.43
0.86
0.60
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
0.81
0.56
1.00
0.43
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Noah II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Noah II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.00
0.47
0.87
0.47
1.13
vs Stronger (9)
0.11
1.22
0.00
1.50
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.83
0.83
0.17
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (9)
0.56
1.00
0.40
1.20
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Araks Ararat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.1%
Under 0.5
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.9%
Under 1.5
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.0%
Under 2.5
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Araks Ararat over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.4%
Under
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 1.5 HT
Over
18.1%
Under
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.6%
Under
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.0%
Under
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Araks Ararat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.93
0.93
0.73
0.47
1.13
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (12)
0.58
1.25
0.86
0.57
0.20
2.20
vs Weaker (16)
0.88
0.75
1.14
0.86
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Noah II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Noah II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.97
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.93
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
0.89
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.80
vs Similar (12)
1.17
0.67
1.33
0.33
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (9)
1.00
1.44
1.00
1.80
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Araks Ararat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.7%
Under 0.5
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.6%
Under 1.5
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.9%
Under 2.5
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Araks Ararat over/under 0.5 2H
Over
58.2%
Under
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 1.5 2H
Over
24.5%
Under
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.3%
Under
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.3%
Under
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Armenia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olympia Yerevan
BKMA II
Pyunik II
Andranik
Mika
Lernayin Artsakh
Bentonit Ijevan
Banants II
Shirak II
Sardarapat 2
Ararat-Armenia II
Hayq
Ararat II