Ararat II’s recent five defeats hint at a fragile away form, while Ararat-Armenia II’s home record of five losses shows a similarly shaky start. The model favours an away win, with a 40% chance, a 37% chance of a home win and a 24% chance of a draw. The expected total goals is 3.6, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 9.7% probability. Ararat-Armenia II averages 1.9 goals scored and 2.2 conceded at home against stronger opposition, whereas Ararat II averages 1.33 scored and 2.5 conceded away against weaker teams. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (96.9%), Under 6.5 (92.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (89.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (88.5%), Over 1.5 (88.4%), Under 5.5 (84.3%), Away over 0.5 goals (84.1%) and Home over 0.5 goals (82.9%).
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ararat-Armenia II win
37.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ararat II win
39.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ararat-Armenia II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
2.00
1.67
2.07
1.20
1.93
vs Stronger (18)
1.72
2.39
1.90
2.20
1.50
2.62
vs Similar (12)
1.00
1.42
1.20
1.80
0.86
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
3.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
2.17
1.38
1.94
1.36
2.43
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
1.23
3.00
1.17
3.50
1.29
2.57
vs Weaker (15)
1.53
1.53
1.67
0.89
1.33
2.50
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.5%
Under 1.5
12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
68.2%
Under 2.5
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
46.7%
Under 3.5
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
69.4%
No
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.1%
1-2
8.2%
2-1
8.0%
2-2
7.1%
1-3
4.9%
0-2
4.7%
3-1
4.6%
2-0
4.5%
Ararat-Armenia II goals ↓
Ararat II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
4.4%
4.7%
2.8%
1.3%
1
4.2%
10%
8.2%
4.9%
2.2%
2
4.5%
8.0%
7.1%
4.2%
1.9%
3
2.6%
4.6%
4.1%
2.4%
1.1%
4
1.1%
2.0%
1.8%
1.1%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ararat-Armenia II goals (down), columns = Ararat II goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
BKMA II
2.37
Hayq
2.27
Andranik
2.20
Pyunik II
1.47
Olympia Yerevan
1.30
Ararat II
1.27
Araks Ararat
1.23
Banants II
1.20
Noah II
1.03
Bentonit Ijevan
0.97
Mika
0.93
Ararat-Armenia II
0.80
Lernayin Artsakh
0.79
Sardarapat 2
0.74
Shirak II
0.60
Ararat-Armenia II is 0.47 points worse than Ararat II in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 1.27).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BKMA II
2.57
Andranik
2.53
Hayq
1.97
Ararat-Armenia II
1.53
Banants II
1.53
Olympia Yerevan
1.50
Ararat II
1.43
Pyunik II
1.43
Noah II
1.30
Araks Ararat
1.27
Shirak II
1.13
Bentonit Ijevan
1.10
Mika
1.07
Sardarapat 2
0.85
Lernayin Artsakh
0.76
Ararat-Armenia II is 0.10 goals better than Ararat II in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.43).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hayq
0.80
Andranik
1.00
BKMA II
1.03
Pyunik II
1.43
Bentonit Ijevan
1.63
Araks Ararat
1.70
Olympia Yerevan
1.79
Banants II
1.80
Ararat II
1.93
Noah II
1.93
Mika
2.00
Ararat-Armenia II
2.07
Lernayin Artsakh
2.45
Shirak II
2.97
Sardarapat 2
3.15
Ararat-Armenia II is 0.13 goals worse than Ararat II in terms of goals conceded per game (2.07 vs 1.93).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ararat-Armenia II or Draw
61.0%
Avg Implied -
37%
24%
39%
covers Ararat-Armenia II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II or Ararat II
75.9%
Avg Implied -
37%
24%
39%
covers Ararat-Armenia II + Ararat II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ararat II
63.0%
Avg Implied -
37%
24%
39%
covers Draw + Ararat II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 0.5
Over
82.3%
Under
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 1.5
Over
51.7%
Under
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 2.5
Over
25.1%
Under
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 3.5
Over
9.8%
Under
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 0.5
Over
83.2%
Under
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 1.5
Over
53.2%
Under
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 2.5
Over
26.5%
Under
73.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 3.5
Over
10.6%
Under
89.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ararat-Armenia II, so a minus line means Ararat-Armenia II give that many goals of a start and Ararat II receive them. At -1, Ararat-Armenia II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ararat-Armenia II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ararat-Armenia II)
Ararat-Armenia II -2
8.2%
Draw -2
11.3%
Ararat II +2
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ararat-Armenia II)
Ararat-Armenia II -1
19.4%
Draw -1
17.5%
Ararat II +1
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ararat-Armenia II)
Ararat-Armenia II +1
61.0%
Draw +1
18.1%
Ararat II -1
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ararat-Armenia II)
Ararat-Armenia II +2
79.1%
Draw +2
11.9%
Ararat II -2
9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ararat-Armenia II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.00
0.87
0.93
0.60
1.07
vs Stronger (18)
0.83
1.17
1.00
1.10
0.62
1.25
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.75
0.60
0.60
0.57
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.17
0.69
1.25
0.86
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.54
1.54
0.33
2.17
0.71
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
1.00
0.80
1.00
0.56
1.00
1.17
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ararat-Armenia II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.00
0.80
1.13
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (18)
0.89
1.22
0.90
1.10
0.88
1.38
vs Similar (12)
0.42
0.67
0.60
1.20
0.29
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.00
0.69
0.69
0.50
1.36
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (13)
0.69
1.46
0.83
1.33
0.57
1.57
vs Weaker (15)
0.53
0.73
0.67
0.33
0.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Armenia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olympia Yerevan
BKMA II
Pyunik II
Andranik
Mika
Lernayin Artsakh
Bentonit Ijevan
Banants II
Noah II
Araks Ararat
Shirak II
Sardarapat 2
Hayq