Ararat-Armenia II are facing off against BKMA II in the Armenia: First League, with the away side heavily favored to win. In recent form, BKMA II have been unbeaten in their last 5 matches, having defeated Lernayin Artsakh 4-0, while Ararat-Armenia II have suffered 3 straight defeats, most recently losing 0-1 to Pyunik II.
The model predicts an away win with a 59% probability, with a 21% chance of the match ending in a draw and a 20% chance of an Ararat-Armenia II victory. The expected total number of goals is 3.6, and the most likely score is 1-2, with a 9.4% probability. Ararat-Armenia II have struggled at home, scoring an average of 1.2 goals and conceding 2.6, while BKMA II have excelled away from home, scoring 2.33 goals and conceding 1.08 against weaker opponents.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 with a 88.4% probability and Over 2.5 with a 70.1% probability. The home side has a 20% chance of winning, a 21% chance of drawing, and a 59% chance of losing.
Results analysis
Ararat-Armenia II's 0-2 loss extends their run of six consecutive defeats, following four straight losses and a win. The away team, BKMA II, secured a 2-0 victory, the second win in their last four matches. The model's call of an away win was correct, with a pre-match probability of 59%. The model's selection, BKMA II's win, was the favourite, with the model predicting a 59% chance of success. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with an 88.4% probability, while the selection of Over 2.5 goals missed, with a 70.1% probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ararat-Armenia II win✗ Miss
19.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BKMA II win✓ Hit
59.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ararat-Armenia II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
2.03
1.71
2.07
1.12
2.00
vs Stronger (20)
1.55
2.30
1.90
2.10
1.20
2.50
vs Similar (10)
1.10
1.50
1.25
2.00
1.00
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BKMA II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.67
1.00
3.12
0.88
2.14
1.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.88
1.50
2.00
1.75
1.75
1.25
vs Weaker (22)
2.95
0.82
3.50
0.58
2.30
1.10
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.4%
Under 1.5
11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
70.1%
Under 2.5
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
48.9%
Under 3.5
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.5%
No
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.4%
1-1
8.9%
1-3
7.2%
0-2 ✓
7.2%
2-2
6.1%
0-3
5.5%
0-1
5.4%
2-1
5.3%
Ararat-Armenia II goals ↓
BKMA II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.5%
5.4%
7.2%
5.5%
3.2%
1
2.7%
8.9%
9.4%
7.2%
4.2%
2
2.3%
5.3%
6.1%
4.7%
2.7%
3
1.0%
2.3%
2.7%
2.1%
1.2%
4
0.3%
0.8%
0.9%
0.7%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ararat-Armenia II goals (down), columns = BKMA II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
BKMA II
2.37
Hayq
2.27
Andranik
2.20
Pyunik II
1.47
Olympia Yerevan
1.30
Ararat II
1.27
Araks Ararat
1.23
Banants II
1.20
Noah II
1.03
Bentonit Ijevan
0.97
Mika
0.93
Ararat-Armenia II
0.80
Lernayin Artsakh
0.79
Sardarapat 2
0.74
Shirak II
0.60
Ararat-Armenia II is 1.57 points worse than BKMA II in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 2.37).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BKMA II
2.57
Andranik
2.53
Hayq
1.97
Ararat-Armenia II
1.53
Banants II
1.53
Olympia Yerevan
1.50
Ararat II
1.43
Pyunik II
1.43
Noah II
1.30
Araks Ararat
1.27
Shirak II
1.13
Bentonit Ijevan
1.10
Mika
1.07
Sardarapat 2
0.85
Lernayin Artsakh
0.76
Ararat-Armenia II is 1.03 goals worse than BKMA II in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 2.57).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hayq
0.80
Andranik
1.00
BKMA II
1.03
Pyunik II
1.43
Bentonit Ijevan
1.63
Araks Ararat
1.70
Olympia Yerevan
1.79
Banants II
1.80
Ararat II
1.93
Noah II
1.93
Mika
2.00
Ararat-Armenia II
2.07
Lernayin Artsakh
2.45
Shirak II
2.97
Sardarapat 2
3.15
Ararat-Armenia II is 1.03 goals worse than BKMA II in terms of goals conceded per game (2.07 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ararat-Armenia II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.03
0.86
0.93
0.56
1.12
vs Stronger (20)
0.75
1.15
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.30
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.80
0.50
0.75
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BKMA II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.33
1.31
0.31
0.57
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (22)
1.14
0.27
1.50
0.25
0.70
0.30
Clean sheet %
77% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ararat-Armenia II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.00
0.86
1.14
0.56
0.88
vs Stronger (20)
0.80
1.15
0.90
1.10
0.70
1.20
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.70
0.75
1.25
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BKMA II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.67
1.81
0.56
1.57
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.38
1.00
1.25
1.25
1.50
0.75
vs Weaker (22)
1.82
0.55
2.00
0.33
1.60
0.80
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (29)
€1m
HAY (13)
€1m
BI (16)
€0m
OY (15)
€0m
BI (16)
€0m
MIK (21)
€0m
AI (11)
€0m
PI (13)
€0m
SI (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
LA (8)
€0m
NI (4)
€0m
S2 (2)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia II and BKMA II have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (10)
€1m
HAY (8)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
SI (1)
€0m
MIK (4)
€0m
OY (2)
€0m
PI (1)
€0m
NI (1)
€0m
BI (2)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
S2 (0)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia II and BKMA II have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (8)
€0m
BI (6)
€0m
MIK (10)
€0m
AI (5)
€0m
OY (4)
€0m
SI (4)
€0m
BI (5)
€0m
PI (4)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
HAY (1)
€0m
NI (0)
€0m
S2 (0)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia II and BKMA II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (11)
€0m
OY (9)
€0m
HAY (4)
€0m
BI (8)
€0m
AI (6)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
PI (8)
€0m
MIK (7)
€0m
SI (3)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
NI (3)
€0m
LA (3)
€0m
S2 (2)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia II and BKMA II have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Armenia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olympia Yerevan
Pyunik II
Andranik
Mika
Lernayin Artsakh
Bentonit Ijevan
Banants II
Noah II
Araks Ararat
Shirak II
Sardarapat 2
Hayq
Ararat II