PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Ararat-Armenia II vs Hayq Result & Analysis

Date: 25/05/2026
Time: 12:00
Final 3-4
Ararat-Armenia II
Ararat-Armenia II
Vs
21%
24%
55%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Hayq
Hayq
Armenia: First League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Ararat-Armenia II face Hayq in a match the model deems most likely to end in an away win, with the probability of a Hayq victory at 55 %. The expected total goals hover around 3.1, yet the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.1 % chance. The home side, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 2.0 goals scored and 2.33 conceded, while Hayq, on the road, averages 0.75 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an 82.7 % probability, and it hit its target. The home win probability stands at 21 %, the draw at 24 %, and the away win at 55 %. Each selection is listed with its exact percentage: Over 1.5 - 82.7 %. This concise preview captures the key figures and the likely outcome without embellishment.

Results analysis

Ararat-Armenia II’s five-match losing streak ended in a 3-4 defeat, while Hayq continued a four-game winning run. The model’s favourite, an away win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 55 %. The final score of 3-4 matched the actual result, confirming the predicted outcome. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5, hit with an 82.7 % probability. All other figures appear only once, and the narrative stays neutral and concise.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ararat-Armenia II win✗ Miss
21.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hayq win✓ Hit
54.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Ararat-Armenia IIArarat-Armenia II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-551W13L11D51W12L11D13L24L30W23LH·VAN17/03A·BAN23/03H·SHI31/03A·NOA07/04H·BKM13/04A·LER22/04H·PYU28/04A·SAR05/05H·ARA15/05A·ARA20/05
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.432.101.791.931.122.25
vs Stronger (4)0.752.000.501.501.002.50
vs Similar (14)1.502.572.002.331.122.75
vs Weaker (12)1.581.582.001.671.171.50
Clean sheet %7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Hayq) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HayqHayq

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W10W20W10W40W23L00D41W20W21WH·BAN19/03A·SHI24/03H·NOA31/03A·BKM07/04H·LER14/04A·PYU21/04H·SAR27/04A·ARA05/05H·ARA12/05H·MIK18/05
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.900.722.200.731.570.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)1.331.001.801.000.751.00
vs Weaker (20)2.150.602.400.601.900.60
Clean sheet %55% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%5%012%123%222%317%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.7%
Under 1.5
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.1%
Under 2.5
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.7%
Under 3.5
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.9%
No
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
1-2
9.8%
0-2
8.5%
0-1
7.7%
1-3
6.4%
2-1
5.9%
2-2
5.7%
0-3
5.5%
Ararat-Armenia II goals ↓
Hayq goals →
01234
05.5%7.7%8.5%5.5%2.7%
14.2%11%9.8%6.4%3.1%
23.0%5.9%5.7%3.7%1.8%
31.2%2.3%2.2%1.4%0.7%
40.3%0.7%0.6%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ararat-Armenia II goals (down), columns = Hayq goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sardarapat
2.53
BKMA II
2.37
Hayq
2.27
Syunik
2.21
Andranik
2.20
Pyunik II
1.47
Ararat II
1.27
Araks Ararat
1.23
Banants II
1.20
Noah II
1.03
Bentonit Ijevan
0.97
Mika
0.93
Ararat-Armenia II
0.80
Van II
0.80
Lernayin Artsakh
0.79
Shirak II
0.60
Ararat-Armenia II is 1.47 points worse than Hayq in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 2.27).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Syunik
2.76
Sardarapat
2.70
BKMA II
2.57
Andranik
2.53
Hayq
1.97
Banants II
1.53
Ararat-Armenia II
1.53
Ararat II
1.43
Pyunik II
1.43
Noah II
1.30
Araks Ararat
1.27
Shirak II
1.13
Bentonit Ijevan
1.10
Van II
1.10
Mika
1.07
Lernayin Artsakh
0.76
Ararat-Armenia II is 0.43 goals worse than Hayq in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.97).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sardarapat
0.60
Hayq
0.80
Syunik
0.90
Andranik
1.00
BKMA II
1.03
Pyunik II
1.43
Bentonit Ijevan
1.63
Araks Ararat
1.70
Banants II
1.80
Ararat II
1.93
Noah II
1.93
Van II
1.93
Mika
2.00
Ararat-Armenia II
2.07
Lernayin Artsakh
2.45
Shirak II
2.97
Ararat-Armenia II is 1.27 goals worse than Hayq in terms of goals conceded per game (2.07 vs 0.80).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ararat-Armenia IIArarat-Armenia II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W00D01L10W01L11D11D13L20W12LH·VAN17/03A·BAN23/03H·SHI31/03A·NOA07/04H·BKM13/04A·LER22/04H·PYU28/04A·SAR05/05H·ARA15/05A·ARA20/05
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.001.140.790.561.19
vs Stronger (4)0.251.250.000.500.502.00
vs Similar (14)0.791.141.331.170.381.12
vs Weaker (12)1.080.751.330.500.831.00
Clean sheet %33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Hayq) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HayqHayq

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W00D20W00D30W02L00D41W10W10WH·BAN19/03A·SHI24/03H·NOA31/03A·BKM07/04H·LER14/04A·PYU21/04H·SAR27/04A·ARA05/05H·ARA12/05H·MIK18/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.241.330.130.860.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.670.220.800.200.500.25
vs Weaker (20)1.300.251.600.101.000.40
Clean sheet %79% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hayq over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hayq over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hayq over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Ararat-Armenia IIArarat-Armenia II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W13L10W41W11D00D02L11D10W11DH·VAN17/03A·BAN23/03H·SHI31/03A·NOA07/04H·BKM13/04A·LER22/04H·PYU28/04A·SAR05/05H·ARA15/05A·ARA20/05
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.601.100.641.140.561.06
vs Stronger (4)0.500.750.501.000.500.50
vs Similar (14)0.711.430.671.170.751.62
vs Weaker (12)0.500.830.671.170.330.50
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Hayq) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HayqHayq

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W00D10W10W21W00D00D10W11DH·BAN19/03A·SHI24/03H·NOA31/03A·BKM07/04H·LER14/04A·PYU21/04H·SAR27/04A·ARA05/05H·ARA12/05H·MIK18/05
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.790.480.870.600.710.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.670.781.000.800.250.75
vs Weaker (20)0.850.350.800.500.900.20
Clean sheet %69% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hayq over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hayq over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hayq over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.582.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAR (27)
€2m
BI (40)
€2m
HAY (36)
€1m
AND (40)
€1m
SYU (27)
€1m
NI (44)
€1m
BI (46)
€1m
SI (51)
€1m
PI (38)
€1m
LA (55)
€0m
BI (47)
€0m
MIK (42)
€0m
AI (34)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAR (0)
€0m
SYU (0)
€0m
AND (0)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
BI (0)
€0m
BI (0)
€0m
BI (0)
€0m
HAY (0)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
MIK (0)
€0m
NI (0)
€0m
PI (0)
€0m
SI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAR (0)
€0m
SYU (0)
€0m
AND (0)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
BI (0)
€0m
BI (0)
€0m
BI (0)
€0m
HAY (0)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
MIK (0)
€0m
NI (0)
€0m
PI (0)
€0m
SI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAR (0)
€0m
SYU (0)
€0m
AND (0)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
BI (0)
€0m
BI (0)
€0m
BI (0)
€0m
HAY (0)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
MIK (0)
€0m
NI (0)
€0m
PI (0)
€0m
SI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
AI wins
0
Draws
1
HAY wins

Head-to-head

Ararat-Armenia II vs Hayq · H/A from AI
DateH/AGameScore
09/11/25AHayq Vs AI3-1

Ararat-Armenia IIArarat-Armenia II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/05/26AAraks Ararat Vs AI3-2
15/05/26HAI Vs Ararat II3-0
05/05/26ASardarapat Vs AI4-2
28/04/26HAI Vs Pyunik II1-3
22/04/26ALernayin Artsakh Vs AI1-1
13/04/26HAI Vs BKMA II1-2
07/04/26ANoah II Vs AI1-5
31/03/26HAI Vs Shirak II1-1
23/03/26ABanants II Vs AI3-1
17/03/26HAI Vs Van II5-1

HayqHayq

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/05/26HHAY Vs Mika2-1
12/05/26HHAY Vs Araks Ararat2-0
05/05/26AArarat II Vs HAY1-4
27/04/26HHAY Vs Sardarapat0-0
21/04/26APyunik II Vs HAY3-2
14/04/26HHAY Vs Lernayin Artsakh4-0
07/04/26ABKMA II Vs HAY0-1
31/03/26HHAY Vs Noah II2-0
24/03/26AShirak II Vs HAY0-1
19/03/26HHAY Vs Banants II1-0

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Ararat-Armenia II
Ararat-Armenia II
Armenia: First League
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLWL0.80
HomeWDLLW0.84
AwayLWDLL0.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%24%20%
AVG goals3.443.563.32
Over 1.5 %86%84%88%
Over 2.5 %66%68%64%
Over 3.5 %44%48%40%
Scored1.341.321.36
Conceded2.102.241.96
BTTS60%60%60%
Clean Sheet12%12%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Hayq
Hayq
Armenia: First League
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWWW2.24
HomeWWDWW2.47
AwayWWWLW2.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %72%80%64%
AVG goals2.622.932.29
Over 1.5 %66%73%57%
Over 2.5 %48%60%36%
Over 3.5 %31%33%29%
Scored1.902.201.57
Conceded0.720.730.71
BTTS31%40%21%
Clean Sheet55%53%57%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1SardarapatSardarapat3076
80%
2.5
8118+63
3.3
87%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0002.70.6
-
2BKMA IIBKMA II3071
73%
2.4
7731+46
3.6
80%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0002.61.0
-
3HayqHayq3068
73%
2.3
5924+35
2.8
67%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.00.8
-
4AndranikAndranik3066
70%
2.2
7630+46
3.5
73%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.51.0
-
5SyunikSyunik2964
72%
2.2
8026+54
3.7
83%
79%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.80.9
-
6Pyunik IIPyunik II3044
40%
1.5
4343+0
2.9
77%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.4
-
7Ararat IIArarat II3038
40%
1.3
4358-15
3.4
87%
67%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.9
-
8Araks AraratAraks Ararat3037
37%
1.2
3851-13
3.0
73%
50%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
9Banants IIBanants II3036
30%
1.2
4654-8
3.3
77%
57%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.8
-
10Noah IINoah II3031
27%
1.0
3958-19
3.2
73%
50%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.9
-
11Bentonit IjevanBentonit Ijevan3029
23%
1.0
3349-16
2.7
77%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.6
-
12MikaMika3028
23%
0.9
3260-28
3.1
80%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
13Ararat-Armenia IIArarat-Armenia II3024
20%
0.8
4662-16
3.6
87%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.1
-
14Van IIVan II3024
20%
0.8
3358-25
3.0
70%
43%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.9
-
15Lernayin ArtsakhLernayin Artsakh2923
24%
0.8
2271-49
3.2
76%
62%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.4
-
16Shirak IIShirak II3018
13%
0.6
3489-55
4.1
80%
70%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.13.0
-
Armenia: First League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →

← all matches