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Ararat-Armenia II vs Mika Result & Analysis

Date: 05/08/2025
Time: 13:00
Final 4-2
Ararat-Armenia II
Ararat-Armenia II
Vs
40%
24%
37%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Mika
Mika
Armenia: First League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Ararat-Armenia II, fresh from a 1-1 draw, looks poised to capitalize on their solid home form, having scored 1.38 and conceded 1.25 against similarly ranked opponents. Mika, meanwhile, has struggled away, averaging only 0.33 goals while conceding two. The model projects a high-scoring affair with an expected 3.6 goals, the most probable total being three goals at 21%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 9.6% chance. The predicted result is a home win, with probabilities of 40% for Ararat-Armenia II, 24% for a draw, and 37% for Mika. The suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 88.6%, BTTS Yes at 71.0%, and Over 2.5 goals at 70.3%. Each of these selections carries its own probability, separate from the match-result odds. The model’s forecast aligns with the teams’ recent form and the high-scoring nature of the encounter.

Results analysis

Ararat-Armenia II’s recent run of draws and a 1-1 finish against Mika set the stage for a tight encounter, yet the model’s favourite - a home win - proved accurate as the match ended 4-2 in Ararat-Armenia II’s favour. The pre-match probability for the home win was 40%, and the model’s pick was correct. The model’s selections also hit: Over 1.5 goals (88.6% chance) came through with six goals, BTTS Yes (71.0%) saw both sides score, and Over 2.5 goals (70.3%) was achieved. All predictions settled as forecast, confirming the model’s overall accuracy.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ararat-Armenia II win✓ Hit
39.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mika win✗ Miss
36.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Ararat-Armenia IIArarat-Armenia II

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-616L02L13L30W10W10W02L12L03L05LH·AND15/03H·PYU31/03H·NOA08/04A·MIK13/04H·NIK22/04A·ARA28/04H·SHI05/05A·BAN14/05H·LER20/05A·SYU27/05
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.432.201.202.201.672.20
vs Stronger (15)1.202.931.003.291.382.62
vs Similar (15)1.671.471.381.252.001.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Mika) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MikaMika

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-504L05L22D03L02L13L12L43W22D21WH·BKM30/03H·BAN04/04A·AND09/04H·ARA13/04H·PYU21/04A·BEN25/04H·NOA30/04A·NIK14/05H·ARA19/05A·SHI26/05
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.932.670.712.071.123.19
vs Stronger (25)1.042.800.752.081.313.46
vs Similar (5)0.402.000.502.000.332.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%4%08%118%221%319%414%516%6+
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.6%
Under 1.5
11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
70.3%
Under 2.5
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
49.2%
Under 3.5
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
71.0%
No
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.6%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
7.8%
2-2
7.2%
3-1
5.0%
1-3
4.6%
2-0
4.5%
3-2
4.4%
Ararat-Armenia II goals ↓
Mika goals →
01234
03.5%3.8%4.2%2.5%1.1%
14.0%9.6%7.8%4.6%2.1%
24.5%8.1%7.2%4.3%1.9%
32.8%5.0%4.4%2.6%1.2%
41.3%2.3%2.1%1.2%0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ararat-Armenia II goals (down), columns = Mika goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sardarapat
2.53
BKMA II
2.37
Hayq
2.27
Syunik
2.21
Andranik
2.20
Pyunik II
1.47
Ararat II
1.27
Araks Ararat
1.23
Banants II
1.20
Noah II
1.03
Bentonit Ijevan
0.97
Mika
0.93
Ararat-Armenia II
0.80
Van II
0.80
Lernayin Artsakh
0.79
Shirak II
0.60
Ararat-Armenia II is 0.13 points worse than Mika in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 0.93).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Syunik
2.76
Sardarapat
2.70
BKMA II
2.57
Andranik
2.53
Hayq
1.97
Banants II
1.53
Ararat-Armenia II
1.53
Ararat II
1.43
Pyunik II
1.43
Noah II
1.30
Araks Ararat
1.27
Shirak II
1.13
Bentonit Ijevan
1.10
Van II
1.10
Mika
1.07
Lernayin Artsakh
0.76
Ararat-Armenia II is 0.47 goals better than Mika in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.07).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sardarapat
0.60
Hayq
0.80
Syunik
0.90
Andranik
1.00
BKMA II
1.03
Pyunik II
1.43
Bentonit Ijevan
1.63
Araks Ararat
1.70
Banants II
1.80
Ararat II
1.93
Noah II
1.93
Van II
1.93
Mika
2.00
Ararat-Armenia II
2.07
Lernayin Artsakh
2.45
Shirak II
2.97
Ararat-Armenia II is 0.07 goals worse than Mika in terms of goals conceded per game (2.07 vs 2.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ararat-Armenia IIArarat-Armenia II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D02L02L00D10W10W00D01L01L02LH·SYU17/11H·BEN22/11A·BKM11/03H·PYU31/03H·NOA08/04H·NIK22/04A·ARA28/04A·BAN14/05H·LER20/05A·SYU27/05
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.700.930.500.560.88
vs Stronger (17)0.530.880.710.570.401.10
vs Similar (13)1.000.461.140.430.830.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Mika) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MikaMika

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D02L04L02L01L11D11D11D11D21WH·SYU18/03H·BKM30/03H·BAN04/04A·AND09/04H·PYU21/04A·BEN25/04H·NOA30/04A·NIK14/05H·ARA19/05A·SHI26/05
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.531.370.461.230.591.47
vs Stronger (28)0.541.390.461.230.601.53
vs Similar (2)0.501.00--0.501.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Ararat-Armenia IIArarat-Armenia II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L10W00D02L03L00D10W11D02L03LH·SYU17/11H·BEN22/11A·BKM11/03H·PYU31/03H·NOA08/04H·NIK22/04A·ARA28/04A·BAN14/05H·LER20/05A·SYU27/05
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.370.571.360.941.38
vs Stronger (17)0.711.590.432.000.901.30
vs Similar (13)0.851.080.710.711.001.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Mika) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MikaMika

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L02L01L20W01L02L01L32W11D00DH·SYU18/03H·BKM30/03H·BAN04/04A·AND09/04H·PYU21/04A·BEN25/04H·NOA30/04A·NIK14/05H·ARA19/05A·SHI26/05
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.370.231.000.711.65
vs Stronger (28)0.541.390.231.000.801.73
vs Similar (2)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.588.6%-------✓ Hit
BTTS Yes71.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.570.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAR (23)
€2m
SYU (23)
€2m
AND (29)
€1m
HAY (13)
€1m
BI (16)
€0m
BI (16)
€0m
MIK (21)
€0m
AI (11)
€0m
PI (13)
€0m
SI (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
LA (8)
€0m
NI (4)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia II and Mika have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SYU (9)
€1m
SAR (7)
€1m
AND (10)
€1m
HAY (8)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
SI (1)
€0m
MIK (4)
€0m
PI (1)
€0m
NI (1)
€0m
BI (2)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia II and Mika have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SYU (6)
€0m
AND (8)
€0m
SAR (4)
€0m
BI (6)
€0m
MIK (10)
€0m
AI (5)
€0m
SI (4)
€0m
BI (5)
€0m
PI (4)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
HAY (1)
€0m
NI (0)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia II and Mika have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAR (12)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
AND (11)
€0m
HAY (4)
€0m
BI (8)
€0m
AI (6)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
PI (8)
€0m
MIK (7)
€0m
SI (3)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
NI (3)
€0m
LA (3)
€0m
Ararat-Armenia II and Mika have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
5
AI wins
1
Draws
1
MIK wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ararat-Armenia II vs Mika · H/A from AI
DateH/AGameScore
13/04/25AMika Vs AI0-3
26/09/24HAI Vs Mika1-0
15/05/24HAI Vs Mika2-0
30/10/23AMika Vs AI0-0
23/05/23HAI Vs Mika3-0
18/03/23AMika Vs AI2-1
29/09/22HAI Vs Mika4-1

Ararat-Armenia IIArarat-Armenia II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/05/25ASyunik Vs AI5-0
20/05/25HAI Vs Lernayin Artsakh0-3
14/05/25ABanants II Vs AI2-1
05/05/25HAI Vs Shirak II0-2
28/04/25AArarat II Vs AI0-1
22/04/25HAI Vs Nikarm1-0
13/04/25AMika Vs AI0-3
08/04/25HAI Vs Noah II1-3
31/03/25HAI Vs Pyunik II0-2
15/03/25HAI Vs Andranik1-6

MikaMika

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/05/25AShirak II Vs MIK1-2
19/05/25HMIK Vs Ararat II2-2
14/05/25ANikarm Vs MIK3-4
30/04/25HMIK Vs Noah II1-2
25/04/25ABentonit Ijevan Vs MIK3-1
21/04/25HMIK Vs Pyunik II0-2
13/04/25HMIK Vs Ararat-Armenia II0-3
09/04/25AAndranik Vs MIK2-2
04/04/25HMIK Vs Banants II0-5
30/03/25HMIK Vs BKMA II0-4

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ararat-Armenia II
Ararat-Armenia II
Armenia: First League
Recent: 3 Wins / 0 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLL1.04
HomeLLWLL1.04
AwayLWWLL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%32%28%
AVG goals3.403.523.28
Over 1.5 %84%88%80%
Over 2.5 %64%68%60%
Over 3.5 %40%40%40%
Scored1.481.441.52
Conceded1.922.081.76
BTTS54%56%52%
Clean Sheet20%16%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Mika
Mika
Armenia: First League
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDW0.66
HomeLLLLD0.68
AwayLDLWW0.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %16%12%20%
AVG goals3.382.803.96
Over 1.5 %80%76%84%
Over 2.5 %68%60%76%
Over 3.5 %44%28%60%
Scored0.880.641.12
Conceded2.502.162.84
BTTS40%28%52%
Clean Sheet12%20%4%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1SardarapatSardarapat3076
80%
2.5
8118+63
3.3
87%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.70.6
-
2BKMA IIBKMA II3071
73%
2.4
7731+46
3.6
80%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.0
-
3HayqHayq3068
73%
2.3
5924+35
2.8
67%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.00.8
-
4AndranikAndranik3066
70%
2.2
7630+46
3.5
73%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1002.51.0
-
5SyunikSyunik2964
72%
2.2
8026+54
3.7
83%
79%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1002.80.9
-
6Pyunik IIPyunik II3044
40%
1.5
4343+0
2.9
77%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
7Ararat IIArarat II3038
40%
1.3
4358-15
3.4
87%
67%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.9
-
8Araks AraratAraks Ararat3037
37%
1.2
3851-13
3.0
73%
50%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
9Banants IIBanants II3036
30%
1.2
4654-8
3.3
77%
57%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
-
10Noah IINoah II3031
27%
1.0
3958-19
3.2
73%
50%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.9
-
11Bentonit IjevanBentonit Ijevan3029
23%
1.0
3349-16
2.7
77%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.6
-
12MikaMika3028
23%
0.9
3260-28
3.1
80%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
13Ararat-Armenia IIArarat-Armenia II3024
20%
0.8
4662-16
3.6
87%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.1
-
14Van IIVan II3024
20%
0.8
3358-25
3.0
70%
43%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.9
-
15Lernayin ArtsakhLernayin Artsakh2923
24%
0.8
2271-49
3.2
76%
62%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.4
-
16Shirak IIShirak II3018
13%
0.6
3489-55
4.1
80%
70%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.13.0
-
Armenia: First League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →

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