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Ararat II vs Andranik Result & Analysis

Date: 21/05/2026
Time: 12:00
Final 1-6
Ararat II
Ararat II
Vs
24%
25%
51%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Andranik
Andranik
Armenia: First League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Ararat II a 24% win probability against Andranik in the Armenia: First League on 2026-05-21, with 25% for the draw and 51% for Andranik. The model estimates around 3.1 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (23%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (11.5%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (82%).

Results analysis

Ararat II finished 1-6 against Andranik (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 24% home win, 25% draw and 51% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (82%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ararat II win✗ Miss
24.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Andranik win✓ Hit
51.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Ararat IIArarat II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L01L02L02L21W24L21W14L04L03LH·NOA15/03H·LER31/03A·PYU07/04H·SAR13/04H·MIK20/04A·ARA26/04A·SHI30/04H·HAY05/05A·BKM11/05A·ARA15/05
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.701.731.331.472.07
vs Stronger (16)1.192.251.252.001.122.50
vs Similar (10)1.900.902.000.401.801.40
vs Weaker (4)2.501.503.001.002.002.00
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Andranik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AndranikAndranik

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-613L21W00D42W40W02L60W10W11D31WA·SYU12/03H·BEN18/03A·VAN23/03H·BAN28/03A·SHI08/04A·BKM22/04H·LER25/04A·PYU06/05H·SAR11/05H·NOA15/05
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.201.002.330.872.071.13
vs Stronger (6)0.671.830.331.331.002.33
vs Similar (6)1.330.671.670.331.001.00
vs Weaker (18)3.000.833.220.892.780.78
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%411%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.3%
Under 1.5
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.4%
Under 2.5
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.1%
Under 3.5
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.7%
No
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
7.9%
0-1
7.5%
2-1
6.4%
1-3
6.0%
2-2
5.9%
0-0
5.6%
Ararat II goals ↓
Andranik goals →
01234
05.6%7.5%7.9%4.9%2.3%
14.6%11%9.7%6.0%2.8%
23.5%6.4%5.9%3.7%1.7%
31.4%2.6%2.4%1.5%0.7%
40.4%0.8%0.7%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ararat II goals (down), columns = Andranik goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sardarapat
2.53
BKMA II
2.37
Hayq
2.27
Syunik
2.21
Andranik
2.20
Pyunik II
1.47
Ararat II
1.27
Araks Ararat
1.23
Banants II
1.20
Noah II
1.03
Bentonit Ijevan
0.97
Mika
0.93
Ararat-Armenia II
0.80
Van II
0.80
Lernayin Artsakh
0.79
Shirak II
0.60
Ararat II is 0.93 points worse than Andranik in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 2.20).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Syunik
2.76
Sardarapat
2.70
BKMA II
2.57
Andranik
2.53
Hayq
1.97
Banants II
1.53
Ararat-Armenia II
1.53
Ararat II
1.43
Pyunik II
1.43
Noah II
1.30
Araks Ararat
1.27
Shirak II
1.13
Bentonit Ijevan
1.10
Van II
1.10
Mika
1.07
Lernayin Artsakh
0.76
Ararat II is 1.10 goals worse than Andranik in terms of goals scored per game (1.43 vs 2.53).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sardarapat
0.60
Hayq
0.80
Syunik
0.90
Andranik
1.00
BKMA II
1.03
Pyunik II
1.43
Bentonit Ijevan
1.63
Araks Ararat
1.70
Banants II
1.80
Ararat II
1.93
Noah II
1.93
Van II
1.93
Mika
2.00
Ararat-Armenia II
2.07
Lernayin Artsakh
2.45
Shirak II
2.97
Ararat II is 0.93 goals worse than Andranik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.93 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.582.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAR (27)
€2m
BI (40)
€2m
HAY (36)
€1m
AND (40)
€1m
SYU (27)
€1m
NI (44)
€1m
BI (46)
€1m
SI (51)
€1m
PI (38)
€1m
LA (55)
€0m
BI (47)
€0m
MIK (42)
€0m
AI (34)
€0m
Ararat II and Andranik have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAR (0)
€0m
SYU (0)
€0m
AND (0)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
BI (0)
€0m
BI (0)
€0m
BI (0)
€0m
HAY (0)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
MIK (0)
€0m
NI (0)
€0m
PI (0)
€0m
SI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAR (0)
€0m
SYU (0)
€0m
AND (0)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
BI (0)
€0m
BI (0)
€0m
BI (0)
€0m
HAY (0)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
MIK (0)
€0m
NI (0)
€0m
PI (0)
€0m
SI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAR (0)
€0m
SYU (0)
€0m
AND (0)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
BI (0)
€0m
BI (0)
€0m
BI (0)
€0m
HAY (0)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
MIK (0)
€0m
NI (0)
€0m
PI (0)
€0m
SI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Ararat II vs Andranik · H/A from AI
DateH/AGameScore
04/11/25AAndranik Vs AI2-1
22/04/25AAndranik Vs AI2-0
17/10/24HAI Vs Andranik1-2
04/03/24AAndranik Vs AI0-3
14/08/23HAI Vs Andranik0-1

Ararat IIArarat II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/05/26AArarat-Armenia II Vs AI3-0
11/05/26ABKMA II Vs AI4-0
05/05/26HAI Vs Hayq1-4
30/04/26AShirak II Vs AI1-2
26/04/26AAraks Ararat Vs AI4-2
20/04/26HAI Vs Mika2-1
13/04/26HAI Vs Sardarapat0-2
07/04/26APyunik II Vs AI2-0
31/03/26HAI Vs Lernayin Artsakh0-1
15/03/26HAI Vs Noah II0-1

AndranikAndranik

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/05/26HAND Vs Noah II3-1
11/05/26HAND Vs Sardarapat1-1
06/05/26APyunik II Vs AND0-1
25/04/26HAND Vs Lernayin Artsakh6-0
22/04/26ABKMA II Vs AND2-0
08/04/26AShirak II Vs AND0-4
28/03/26HAND Vs Banants II4-2
23/03/26AVan II Vs AND0-0
18/03/26HAND Vs Bentonit Ijevan2-1
12/03/26ASyunik Vs AND3-1

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Ararat II
Ararat II
Armenia: First League
Recent: 2 Wins / 0 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLL1.28
HomeLLLWL1.48
AwayLLWLL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%48%32%
AVG goals3.383.123.64
Over 1.5 %84%80%88%
Over 2.5 %66%56%76%
Over 3.5 %44%44%44%
Scored1.601.641.56
Conceded1.781.482.08
BTTS56%52%60%
Clean Sheet16%24%8%
Corners---
Cards---
Andranik
Andranik
Armenia: First League
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWDW1.82
HomeWWWDW1.92
AwayLDWLW1.72
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%56%52%
AVG goals3.243.043.44
Over 1.5 %80%84%76%
Over 2.5 %60%52%68%
Over 3.5 %42%28%56%
Scored1.981.962.00
Conceded1.261.081.44
BTTS58%56%60%
Clean Sheet28%28%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1SardarapatSardarapat3076
80%
2.5
8118+63
3.3
87%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0002.70.6
-
2BKMA IIBKMA II3071
73%
2.4
7731+46
3.6
80%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0002.61.0
-
3HayqHayq3068
73%
2.3
5924+35
2.8
67%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.00.8
-
4AndranikAndranik3066
70%
2.2
7630+46
3.5
73%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.51.0
-
5SyunikSyunik2964
72%
2.2
8026+54
3.7
83%
79%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.80.9
-
6Pyunik IIPyunik II3044
40%
1.5
4343+0
2.9
77%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.4
-
7Ararat IIArarat II3038
40%
1.3
4358-15
3.4
87%
67%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.9
-
8Araks AraratAraks Ararat3037
37%
1.2
3851-13
3.0
73%
50%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
9Banants IIBanants II3036
30%
1.2
4654-8
3.3
77%
57%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.8
-
10Noah IINoah II3031
27%
1.0
3958-19
3.2
73%
50%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.9
-
11Bentonit IjevanBentonit Ijevan3029
23%
1.0
3349-16
2.7
77%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.6
-
12MikaMika3028
23%
0.9
3260-28
3.1
80%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
13Ararat-Armenia IIArarat-Armenia II3024
20%
0.8
4662-16
3.6
87%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.1
-
14Van IIVan II3024
20%
0.8
3358-25
3.0
70%
43%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.9
-
15Lernayin ArtsakhLernayin Artsakh2923
24%
0.8
2271-49
3.2
76%
62%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.4
-
16Shirak IIShirak II3018
13%
0.6
3489-55
4.1
80%
70%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.13.0
-
Armenia: First League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →

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