Ararat II's recent form has been dismal, with five consecutive defeats, including a 1-3 loss to Araks Ararat. In contrast, Andranik is on a four-game winning run, capped off by a 4-0 thrashing of Ararat II. This recent-form note sets the stage for a high-scoring match, with the model projecting 3.6 goals on average. The most likely score is a 1-2 away win for Andranik, with a 9.5% probability. At home, Ararat II has scored an average of 1 goal and conceded 3.8, while Andranik has averaged 2.73 goals scored and 0.55 conceded when away to a weaker opponent. The model's selection is Over 1.5, with a 87.8% probability of being correct. The model picks an Away win as the most likely match result, with a 60% probability. The probabilities for the match result are 19% for a Home win, 21% for a Draw, and 60% for an Away win. The model's suggested picks include Over 1.5 (87.8%), with an edge of 10.8%.
Results analysis
The win extends Ararat II's dismal run of five consecutive losses, with their most recent defeat coming at the hands of Araks Ararat. Meanwhile, Andranik continued their impressive form, securing a 4-0 victory to maintain their four-game winning streak. The model correctly predicted the away win, with Andranik's 60% probability of winning proving accurate. The model's selection, Andranik's away win, was correct. The model's suggested picks largely came in, with the Over 1.5 goals margin hitting with a 87.8% probability. The final score was 0-4, confirming the actual result of an away win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ararat II win✗ Miss
18.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Andranik win✓ Hit
60.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ararat II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
3.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.93
1.53
1.67
1.33
2.20
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
1.42
2.67
1.50
2.83
1.33
2.50
vs Weaker (16)
1.50
1.44
1.75
0.75
1.25
2.12
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Andranik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Andranik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
3.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.53
1.00
2.80
0.93
2.27
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.83
0.33
1.33
1.00
2.33
vs Similar (12)
2.67
1.00
3.17
1.00
2.17
1.00
vs Weaker (12)
3.33
0.58
3.67
0.67
3.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.8%
Under 1.5
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.8%
Under 2.5
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
47.4%
Under 3.5
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
64.9%
No
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.5%
1-1
9.1%
0-2
7.7%
1-3
7.3%
2-2
5.9%
0-3
5.9%
0-1
5.8%
2-1
5.1%
Ararat II goals ↓
Andranik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.7%
5.8%
7.7%
5.9%
3.4%
1
2.7%
9.1%
9.5%
7.3%
4.2%
2
2.2%
5.1%
5.9%
4.5%
2.6%
3
0.9%
2.1%
2.4%
1.9%
1.1%
4
0.3%
0.7%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ararat II goals (down), columns = Andranik goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
BKMA II
2.37
Hayq
2.27
Andranik
2.20
Pyunik II
1.47
Olympia Yerevan
1.30
Ararat II
1.27
Araks Ararat
1.23
Banants II
1.20
Noah II
1.03
Bentonit Ijevan
0.97
Mika
0.93
Ararat-Armenia II
0.80
Lernayin Artsakh
0.79
Sardarapat 2
0.74
Shirak II
0.60
Ararat II is 0.93 points worse than Andranik in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 2.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BKMA II
2.57
Andranik
2.53
Hayq
1.97
Ararat-Armenia II
1.53
Banants II
1.53
Olympia Yerevan
1.50
Ararat II
1.43
Pyunik II
1.43
Noah II
1.30
Araks Ararat
1.27
Shirak II
1.13
Bentonit Ijevan
1.10
Mika
1.07
Sardarapat 2
0.85
Lernayin Artsakh
0.76
Ararat II is 1.10 goals worse than Andranik in terms of goals scored per game (1.43 vs 2.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hayq
0.80
Andranik
1.00
BKMA II
1.03
Pyunik II
1.43
Bentonit Ijevan
1.63
Araks Ararat
1.70
Olympia Yerevan
1.79
Banants II
1.80
Ararat II
1.93
Noah II
1.93
Mika
2.00
Ararat-Armenia II
2.07
Lernayin Artsakh
2.45
Shirak II
2.97
Sardarapat 2
3.15
Ararat II is 0.93 goals worse than Andranik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.93 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ararat II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.07
0.80
1.00
0.87
1.13
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.75
1.42
0.67
1.67
0.83
1.17
vs Weaker (16)
0.94
0.75
1.00
0.38
0.88
1.12
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Andranik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Andranik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.47
1.27
0.20
1.13
0.73
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
0.83
0.00
0.33
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (12)
1.42
0.50
1.50
0.33
1.33
0.67
vs Weaker (12)
1.58
0.25
1.67
0.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ararat II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Andranik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Andranik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Andranik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ararat II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
0.73
0.67
0.47
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (12)
0.67
1.25
0.83
1.17
0.50
1.33
vs Weaker (16)
0.56
0.69
0.75
0.38
0.38
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Andranik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Andranik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.53
1.53
0.73
1.13
0.33
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.00
0.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
1.25
0.50
1.67
0.67
0.83
0.33
vs Weaker (12)
1.75
0.33
2.00
0.67
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ararat II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Andranik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Andranik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Andranik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Armenia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olympia Yerevan
BKMA II
Pyunik II
Mika
Lernayin Artsakh
Bentonit Ijevan
Banants II
Noah II
Araks Ararat
Shirak II
Sardarapat 2
Ararat-Armenia II
Hayq