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Ararat II vs Lernayin Artsakh Result & Analysis

Date: 13/09/2024
Time: 12:00
Final 1-0
Ararat II
Ararat II
Vs
20%
18%
62%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Lernayin Artsakh
Lernayin Artsakh
Armenia: First League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Ararat II win✓ Hit
20.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
18.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh win✗ Miss
61.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Ararat IIArarat II

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-600D03L02L14L22D13L00D24L46L21WA·NOA15/04H·BAN20/04A·PYU25/04H·GAN04/05A·ONO08/05H·BKM16/05A·MIK21/05H·LER27/05H·SHI15/08A·BAN26/08
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.931.802.202.201.671.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)1.302.001.602.201.001.80
vs Weaker (20)2.251.702.502.202.001.20
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Lernayin ArtsakhLernayin Artsakh

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-720W21W20W41W12L30W42W40W70W70WA·NIK21/04H·SHI28/04A·AND04/05H·SYU10/05A·ALA15/05H·ARA20/05A·ARA27/05H·NOA09/08A·MIK15/08H·NIK28/08
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
3.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.630.873.330.471.931.27
vs Stronger (12)2.171.172.330.832.001.50
vs Similar (15)2.870.604.120.251.431.00
vs Weaker (3)3.331.003.000.003.501.50
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%2%04%113%218%319%417%527%6+
The model estimates around 4.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
93.7%
Under 1.5
6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
81.0%
Under 2.5
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
63.3%
Under 3.5
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
75.3%
No
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
7.8%
1-3
7.2%
2-2
6.2%
1-1
6.2%
2-3
5.7%
1-4
5.0%
0-2
4.9%
2-1
4.5%
Ararat II goals ↓
Lernayin Artsakh goals →
01234
01.8%3.0%4.9%4.5%3.1%
11.5%6.2%7.8%7.2%5.0%
21.6%4.5%6.2%5.7%4.0%
30.9%2.4%3.3%3.1%2.1%
40.3%1.0%1.3%1.2%0.8%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ararat II goals (down), columns = Lernayin Artsakh goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
BKMA II
2.62
Syunik
2.54
Noah II
1.92
Lernayin Artsakh
1.75
Banants II
1.58
Pyunik II
1.54
Andranik
1.42
Shirak II
1.33
Ararat II
1.21
Bentonit Ijevan
1.00
Ararat-Armenia II
0.79
Mika
0.67
Nikarm
0.04
Ararat II is 0.54 points worse than Lernayin Artsakh in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.75).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
BKMA II
3.21
Syunik
2.67
Lernayin Artsakh
2.50
Banants II
1.96
Noah II
1.96
Pyunik II
1.96
Ararat II
1.83
Shirak II
1.79
Andranik
1.71
Bentonit Ijevan
1.58
Ararat-Armenia II
1.25
Mika
1.04
Nikarm
0.71
Ararat II is 0.67 goals worse than Lernayin Artsakh in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 2.50).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Syunik
0.54
BKMA II
0.71
Noah II
1.21
Banants II
1.38
Lernayin Artsakh
1.42
Pyunik II
1.54
Andranik
1.67
Shirak II
1.96
Ararat II
2.00
Bentonit Ijevan
2.21
Ararat-Armenia II
2.29
Mika
2.96
Nikarm
4.29
Ararat II is 0.58 goals worse than Lernayin Artsakh in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.42).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ararat IIArarat II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D02L01L20W11D00D03L30W01LA·NOA15/04H·BAN20/04A·PYU25/04H·GAN04/05A·ONO08/05H·BKM16/05A·MIK21/05H·LER27/05H·SHI15/08A·BAN26/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.631.270.670.670.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.500.700.800.800.200.60
vs Weaker (20)1.200.601.500.600.900.60
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Lernayin ArtsakhLernayin Artsakh

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L10W00D10W31W10W30W10W30W40WA·BKM04/04H·MIK11/04H·SHI28/04A·AND04/05H·SYU10/05H·ARA20/05A·ARA27/05H·NOA09/08A·MIK15/08H·NIK28/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.401.180.350.770.46
vs Stronger (13)1.150.541.670.500.710.57
vs Similar (14)0.790.360.900.300.500.50
vs Weaker (3)1.330.001.000.001.500.00
Clean sheet %67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ararat II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Ararat IIArarat II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-600D03L00D13L02L02L00D21W16L20WA·NOA15/04H·BAN20/04A·PYU25/04H·GAN04/05A·ONO08/05H·BKM16/05A·MIK21/05H·LER27/05H·SHI15/08A·BAN26/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.170.931.531.000.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.801.300.801.400.801.20
vs Weaker (20)1.051.101.001.601.100.60
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Lernayin ArtsakhLernayin Artsakh

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D20W21W10W10W20W12L30W40W30WA·BKM04/04H·MIK11/04H·SHI28/04A·AND04/05H·SYU10/05H·ARA20/05A·ARA27/05H·NOA09/08A·MIK15/08H·NIK28/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.531.470.290.920.85
vs Stronger (13)0.770.540.670.330.860.71
vs Similar (14)1.500.431.900.300.500.75
vs Weaker (3)2.001.002.000.002.001.50
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ararat II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.593.7%-------✗ Miss
Over 2.581.0%-------✗ Miss
BTTS Yes75.3%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SYU (23)
€2m
AND (29)
€1m
BI (16)
€0m
BI (16)
€0m
MIK (21)
€0m
AI (11)
€0m
PI (13)
€0m
SI (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
LA (8)
€0m
NI (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SYU (9)
€1m
AND (10)
€1m
BI (3)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
SI (1)
€0m
MIK (4)
€0m
PI (1)
€0m
NI (1)
€0m
BI (2)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SYU (6)
€0m
AND (8)
€0m
BI (6)
€0m
MIK (10)
€0m
AI (5)
€0m
SI (4)
€0m
BI (5)
€0m
PI (4)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
NI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SYU (8)
€0m
AND (11)
€0m
BI (8)
€0m
AI (6)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
PI (8)
€0m
MIK (7)
€0m
SI (3)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
NI (3)
€0m
LA (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
AI wins
1
Draws
1
LA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ararat II vs Lernayin Artsakh · H/A from AI
DateH/AGameScore
27/05/24HAI Vs Lernayin Artsakh2-4
07/11/23ALernayin Artsakh Vs AI0-0

Ararat IIArarat II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/08/24ABanants II Vs AI1-2
15/08/24HAI Vs Shirak II4-6
27/05/24HAI Vs Lernayin Artsakh2-4
21/05/24AMika Vs AI0-0
16/05/24HAI Vs BKMA II1-3
08/05/24AOnor Vs AI2-2
04/05/24HAI Vs Gandzasar1-4
25/04/24APyunik II Vs AI2-0
20/04/24HAI Vs Banants II0-3
15/04/24ANoah II Vs AI0-0

Lernayin ArtsakhLernayin Artsakh

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/24HLA Vs Nikarm7-0
15/08/24AMika Vs LA0-7
09/08/24HLA Vs Noah II4-0
27/05/24AArarat II Vs LA2-4
20/05/24HLA Vs Ararat-Armenia II3-0
15/05/24AAlashkert II Vs LA2-1
10/05/24HLA Vs Syunik4-1
04/05/24AAndranik Vs LA0-2
28/04/24HLA Vs Shirak II2-1
21/04/24ANikarm Vs LA0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ararat II
Ararat II
Armenia: First League
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLW1.28
HomeLLLLL1.04
AwayDLDDW1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%33%42%
AVG goals3.484.042.96
Over 1.5 %82%92%73%
Over 2.5 %68%83%54%
Over 3.5 %42%54%31%
Scored1.701.921.50
Conceded1.782.121.46
BTTS48%50%46%
Clean Sheet22%17%27%
Corners---
Cards---
Lernayin Artsakh
Lernayin Artsakh
Armenia: First League
Recent: 9 Wins / 0 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.36
HomeWWWWW1.64
AwayWWLWW1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%52%32%
AVG goals3.063.442.68
Over 1.5 %82%88%76%
Over 2.5 %54%64%44%
Over 3.5 %32%40%24%
Scored1.642.081.20
Conceded1.421.361.48
BTTS32%28%36%
Clean Sheet30%40%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1BKMA IIBKMA II2463
83%
2.6
7717+60
3.9
92%
58%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.20.7
-
2SyunikSyunik2461
79%
2.5
6413+51
3.2
79%
54%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1002.70.5
-
3Noah IINoah II2446
58%
1.9
4729+18
3.2
79%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.2
-
4Lernayin ArtsakhLernayin Artsakh2442
54%
1.8
6034+26
3.9
92%
75%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.51.4
-
5Banants IIBanants II2438
46%
1.6
4733+14
3.3
92%
67%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.4
-
6Pyunik IIPyunik II2437
46%
1.5
4737+10
3.5
88%
62%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.5
-
7AndranikAndranik2434
38%
1.4
4140+1
3.4
92%
71%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.71.7
-
8Shirak IIShirak II2432
33%
1.3
4347-4
3.8
92%
62%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.0
-
9Ararat IIArarat II2429
38%
1.2
4448-4
3.8
83%
71%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.0
-
10Bentonit IjevanBentonit Ijevan2424
25%
1.0
3853-15
3.8
100%
71%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.2
-
11Ararat-Armenia IIArarat-Armenia II2419
25%
0.8
3055-25
3.5
88%
67%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.3
-
12MikaMika2416
17%
0.7
2571-46
4.0
92%
79%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.0
-
13NikarmNikarm241
0%
0.0
17103-86
5.0
92%
88%
79%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.74.3
-
Armenia: First League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →

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