Ararat II are set to host Lernayin Artsakh in a match that the model sees as high-scoring, with an expected total of 3.3 goals. The most likely total is three, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 10.8% chance. The model favours a home win, giving Ararat II a 49% chance, a draw 24%, and a Lernayin win 27%. Ararat II average at home against weaker opposition is 1.67 goals for and 0.89 against, while Lernayin Artsakh on the road against stronger teams averages 0.43 for and 2.43 against. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.1%), Under 6.5 (95.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.0%), Under 5.5 (88.6%), Home +2 handicap (88.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (87.4%), Home over 0.5 goals (85.1%) and Over 1.5 (84.8%). Both sides have been on poor runs, with Ararat II losing their last five and Lernayin Artsakh coming off a defeat.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ararat II win
49.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh win
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ararat II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
3.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
2.17
1.38
1.94
1.36
2.43
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
1.23
3.00
1.17
3.50
1.29
2.57
vs Weaker (15)
1.53
1.53
1.67
0.89
1.33
2.50
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lernayin Artsakh
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
2.60
0.88
2.38
0.86
2.86
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
2.77
0.71
2.71
0.50
2.83
vs Similar (14)
1.14
2.71
1.12
2.25
1.17
3.33
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.33
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.9%
Under 1.5
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.6%
Under 2.5
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
41.5%
Under 3.5
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
64.5%
No
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
6.9%
1-2
6.8%
2-2
6.4%
1-0
6.2%
3-1
6.0%
0-0
4.8%
Ararat II goals ↓
Lernayin Artsakh goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.8%
4.2%
3.5%
1.6%
0.6%
1
6.2%
11%
6.8%
3.1%
1.1%
2
6.9%
9.4%
6.4%
2.9%
1.0%
3
4.4%
6.0%
4.1%
1.9%
0.6%
4
2.1%
2.8%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ararat II goals (down), columns = Lernayin Artsakh goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
BKMA II
2.37
Hayq
2.27
Andranik
2.20
Pyunik II
1.47
Olympia Yerevan
1.30
Ararat II
1.27
Araks Ararat
1.23
Banants II
1.20
Noah II
1.03
Bentonit Ijevan
0.97
Mika
0.93
Ararat-Armenia II
0.80
Lernayin Artsakh
0.79
Sardarapat 2
0.74
Shirak II
0.60
Ararat II is 0.47 points better than Lernayin Artsakh in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 0.79).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BKMA II
2.57
Andranik
2.53
Hayq
1.97
Ararat-Armenia II
1.53
Banants II
1.53
Olympia Yerevan
1.50
Ararat II
1.43
Pyunik II
1.43
Noah II
1.30
Araks Ararat
1.27
Shirak II
1.13
Bentonit Ijevan
1.10
Mika
1.07
Sardarapat 2
0.85
Lernayin Artsakh
0.76
Ararat II is 0.67 goals better than Lernayin Artsakh in terms of goals scored per game (1.43 vs 0.76).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hayq
0.80
Andranik
1.00
BKMA II
1.03
Pyunik II
1.43
Bentonit Ijevan
1.63
Araks Ararat
1.70
Olympia Yerevan
1.79
Banants II
1.80
Ararat II
1.93
Noah II
1.93
Mika
2.00
Ararat-Armenia II
2.07
Lernayin Artsakh
2.45
Shirak II
2.97
Sardarapat 2
3.15
Ararat II is 0.51 goals better than Lernayin Artsakh in terms of goals conceded per game (1.93 vs 2.45).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ararat II or Draw
73.3%
Avg Implied -
49%
24%
27%
covers Ararat II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ararat II or Lernayin Artsakh
75.7%
Avg Implied -
49%
24%
27%
covers Ararat II + Lernayin Artsakh
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Lernayin Artsakh
50.9%
Avg Implied -
49%
24%
27%
covers Draw + Lernayin Artsakh
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ararat II over/under 0.5
Over
85.1%
Under
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 1.5
Over
56.8%
Under
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 2.5
Over
29.8%
Under
70.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 3.5
Over
12.6%
Under
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 0.5
Over
74.6%
Under
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 1.5
Over
39.8%
Under
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 2.5
Over
16.0%
Under
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 3.5
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ararat II, so a minus line means Ararat II give that many goals of a start and Lernayin Artsakh receive them. At -1, Ararat II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ararat II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ararat II)
Ararat II -2
13.2%
Draw -2
15.2%
Lernayin Artsakh +2
71.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ararat II)
Ararat II -1
28.4%
Draw -1
20.7%
Lernayin Artsakh +1
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ararat II)
Ararat II +1
73.3%
Draw +1
14.6%
Lernayin Artsakh -1
12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ararat II)
Ararat II +2
87.9%
Draw +2
7.8%
Lernayin Artsakh -2
4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ararat II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.17
0.69
1.25
0.86
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.54
1.54
0.33
2.17
0.71
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
1.00
0.80
1.00
0.56
1.00
1.17
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lernayin Artsakh
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.97
0.56
0.94
0.36
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.31
1.00
0.29
0.71
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (14)
0.57
1.00
0.88
1.25
0.17
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ararat II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ararat II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.00
0.69
0.69
0.50
1.36
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (13)
0.69
1.46
0.83
1.33
0.57
1.57
vs Weaker (15)
0.53
0.73
0.67
0.33
0.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lernayin Artsakh
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.63
0.31
1.44
0.50
1.86
vs Stronger (13)
0.31
1.77
0.43
2.00
0.17
1.50
vs Similar (14)
0.57
1.71
0.25
1.00
1.00
2.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ararat II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Armenia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olympia Yerevan
BKMA II
Pyunik II
Andranik
Mika
Bentonit Ijevan
Banants II
Noah II
Araks Ararat
Shirak II
Sardarapat 2
Ararat-Armenia II
Hayq