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Ararat II vs Mika Prediction & Stats

Date: 19/10/2026
Time: 13:00
Ararat II
Ararat II
Vs
44%
24%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Mika
Mika
Armenia: First League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Ararat II, still rattled by five straight defeats, will look to turn the tide at home against Mika, who are coming off a draw. The model favours a home win, with a 44% chance, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 31% chance of an away victory. The expected total is 3.4 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1 with a 10.7% probability. Ararat II averages 1.67 goals scored and 0.89 conceded against weaker opposition, while Mika averages 1.15 scored and 2.23 conceded against stronger sides. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.8%), Under 6.5 (94.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (88.6%), Under 5.5 (87.6%), Over 1.5 (85.8%), Home +2 handicap (84.9%), and Home over 0.5 goals (84.0%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ararat II win
44.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mika win
31.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Ararat IIArarat II

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-624L21W14L04L03L16L04L04L13L12LA·ARA26/04A·SHI30/04H·HAY05/05A·BKM11/05A·ARA15/05H·AND21/05A·SYU25/05H·AND04/08A·ARA09/08H·SHI19/08
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
3.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.372.171.381.941.362.43
vs Stronger (2)1.001.500.002.002.001.00
vs Similar (13)1.233.001.173.501.292.57
vs Weaker (15)1.531.531.670.891.332.50
Clean sheet %13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Mika) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MikaMika

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-423L13L32W12L01L32W24L13L31W11DH·BAN27/04A·ARA04/05H·SHI12/05A·HAY18/05H·NOA25/05A·NOA04/08H·PYU10/08A·BKM14/08H·LER18/08A·ARA01/09
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.971.201.871.272.07
vs Stronger (26)1.192.191.232.151.152.23
vs Similar (4)1.500.501.000.002.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.8%
Under 1.5
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
65.2%
Under 2.5
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
43.2%
Under 3.5
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
66.7%
No
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.4%
2-2
6.8%
2-0
5.9%
3-1
5.5%
1-0
5.4%
0-0
4.5%
Ararat II goals ↓
Mika goals →
01234
04.5%4.3%4.0%2.0%0.8%
15.4%11%7.4%3.8%1.4%
25.9%8.9%6.8%3.4%1.3%
33.6%5.5%4.2%2.1%0.8%
41.6%2.5%1.9%1.0%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ararat II goals (down), columns = Mika goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
BKMA II
2.37
Hayq
2.27
Andranik
2.20
Pyunik II
1.47
Olympia Yerevan
1.30
Ararat II
1.27
Araks Ararat
1.23
Banants II
1.20
Noah II
1.03
Bentonit Ijevan
0.97
Mika
0.93
Ararat-Armenia II
0.80
Lernayin Artsakh
0.79
Sardarapat 2
0.74
Shirak II
0.60
Ararat II is 0.33 points better than Mika in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 0.93).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
BKMA II
2.57
Andranik
2.53
Hayq
1.97
Ararat-Armenia II
1.53
Banants II
1.53
Olympia Yerevan
1.50
Ararat II
1.43
Pyunik II
1.43
Noah II
1.30
Araks Ararat
1.27
Shirak II
1.13
Bentonit Ijevan
1.10
Mika
1.07
Sardarapat 2
0.85
Lernayin Artsakh
0.76
Ararat II is 0.37 goals better than Mika in terms of goals scored per game (1.43 vs 1.07).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hayq
0.80
Andranik
1.00
BKMA II
1.03
Pyunik II
1.43
Bentonit Ijevan
1.63
Araks Ararat
1.70
Olympia Yerevan
1.79
Banants II
1.80
Noah II
1.93
Ararat II
1.93
Mika
2.00
Ararat-Armenia II
2.07
Lernayin Artsakh
2.45
Shirak II
2.97
Sardarapat 2
3.15
Ararat II is 0.07 goals better than Mika in terms of goals conceded per game (1.93 vs 2.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ararat II or Draw
68.8%
Avg Implied -
44%
24%
31%
covers Ararat II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ararat II or Mika
75.5%
Avg Implied -
44%
24%
31%
covers Ararat II + Mika
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Mika
55.7%
Avg Implied -
44%
24%
31%
covers Draw + Mika
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ararat II over/under 0.5
Over
84.0%
Under
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 1.5
Over
54.8%
Under
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 2.5
Over
27.9%
Under
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 3.5
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 0.5
Over
78.2%
Under
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 1.5
Over
45.0%
Under
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 2.5
Over
19.7%
Under
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 3.5
Over
6.8%
Under
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Ararat II, so a minus line means Ararat II give that many goals of a start and Mika receive them. At -1, Ararat II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ararat II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ararat II)
Ararat II -2
11.0%
Draw -2
13.6%
Mika +2
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ararat II)
Ararat II -1
24.7%
Draw -1
19.6%
Mika +1
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ararat II)
Ararat II +1
68.8%
Draw +1
16.1%
Mika -1
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ararat II)
Ararat II +2
84.9%
Draw +2
9.4%
Mika -2
5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ararat IIArarat II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L20W14L02L02L13L00D03L00D12LA·ARA26/04A·SHI30/04H·HAY05/05A·BKM11/05A·ARA15/05H·AND21/05A·SYU25/05H·AND04/08A·ARA09/08H·SHI19/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.170.691.250.861.07
vs Stronger (2)0.501.500.002.001.001.00
vs Similar (13)0.541.540.332.170.711.00
vs Weaker (15)1.000.801.000.561.001.17
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Mika) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MikaMika

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L01L11D01L00D20W01L01L21W01LH·BAN27/04A·ARA04/05H·SHI12/05A·HAY18/05H·NOA25/05A·NOA04/08H·PYU10/08A·BKM14/08H·LER18/08A·ARA01/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.870.600.870.270.87
vs Stronger (26)0.420.960.541.000.310.92
vs Similar (4)0.500.251.000.000.000.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ararat II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Ararat IIArarat II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L01L00D02L01L03L04L01L13L00DA·ARA26/04A·SHI30/04H·HAY05/05A·BKM11/05A·ARA15/05H·AND21/05A·SYU25/05H·AND04/08A·ARA09/08H·SHI19/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.601.000.690.690.501.36
vs Stronger (2)0.500.000.000.001.000.00
vs Similar (13)0.691.460.831.330.571.57
vs Weaker (15)0.530.730.670.330.331.33
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Mika) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MikaMika

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D12L21W11D01L12L23L12L10W10WH·BAN27/04A·ARA04/05H·SHI12/05A·HAY18/05H·NOA25/05A·NOA04/08H·PYU10/08A·BKM14/08H·LER18/08A·ARA01/09
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.801.100.601.001.001.20
vs Stronger (26)0.771.230.691.150.851.31
vs Similar (4)1.000.250.000.002.000.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ararat II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.597.8%-------
Under 6.594.5%-------
Away under 3.5 goals93.2%-------
Home under 3.5 goals88.6%-------
Under 5.587.6%-------
Over 1.585.8%-------
Home +2 handicap84.9%-------
Home over 0.5 goals84.0%-------
Away under 2.5 goals80.3%-------
Away over 0.5 goals78.2%-------
Home or Away75.5%-------
Away +2 handicap75.3%-------
Under 4.575.2%-------
Home under 2.5 goals72.1%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (29)
€1m
HAY (13)
€1m
BI (16)
€0m
OY (15)
€0m
BI (16)
€0m
MIK (21)
€0m
AI (11)
€0m
PI (13)
€0m
SI (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
LA (8)
€0m
NI (4)
€0m
S2 (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (10)
€1m
HAY (8)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
SI (1)
€0m
MIK (4)
€0m
OY (2)
€0m
PI (1)
€0m
NI (1)
€0m
BI (2)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
S2 (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (8)
€0m
BI (6)
€0m
MIK (10)
€0m
AI (5)
€0m
OY (4)
€0m
SI (4)
€0m
BI (5)
€0m
PI (4)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
HAY (1)
€0m
NI (0)
€0m
S2 (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (11)
€0m
OY (9)
€0m
HAY (4)
€0m
BI (8)
€0m
AI (6)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
PI (8)
€0m
MIK (7)
€0m
SI (3)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
NI (3)
€0m
LA (3)
€0m
S2 (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
AI wins
3
Draws
1
MIK wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ararat II vs Mika · H/A from AI
DateH/AGameScore
20/04/26HAI Vs Mika2-1
07/10/25AMika Vs AI2-2
19/05/25AMika Vs AI2-2
25/11/24HAI Vs Mika3-2
21/05/24AMika Vs AI0-0
04/11/23HAI Vs Mika0-1
04/04/23HAI Vs Mika4-0
17/10/22AMika Vs AI0-3

Ararat IIArarat II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/08/26HAI Vs Shirak II1-2
09/08/26AAraks Ararat Vs AI3-1
04/08/26HAI Vs Andranik0-4
25/05/26ASyunik Vs AI4-0
21/05/26HAI Vs Andranik1-6
15/05/26AArarat-Armenia II Vs AI3-0
11/05/26ABKMA II Vs AI4-0
05/05/26HAI Vs Hayq1-4
30/04/26AShirak II Vs AI1-2
26/04/26AAraks Ararat Vs AI4-2

MikaMika

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/09/26AArarat-Armenia II Vs MIK1-1
18/08/26HMIK Vs Lernayin Artsakh3-1
14/08/26ABKMA II Vs MIK3-1
10/08/26HMIK Vs Pyunik II2-4
04/08/26ANoah II Vs MIK2-3
25/05/26HMIK Vs Noah II0-1
18/05/26AHayq Vs MIK2-1
12/05/26HMIK Vs Shirak II3-2
04/05/26AAraks Ararat Vs MIK3-1
27/04/26HMIK Vs Banants II2-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ararat II
Ararat II
Armenia: First League
Recent: 1 Wins / 0 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL1.16
HomeWLLLL1.24
AwayWLLLL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%40%32%
AVG goals3.523.363.68
Over 1.5 %88%84%92%
Over 2.5 %70%60%80%
Over 3.5 %48%48%48%
Scored1.541.481.60
Conceded1.981.882.08
BTTS60%56%64%
Clean Sheet12%16%8%
Corners---
Cards---
Mika
Mika
Armenia: First League
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWD0.88
HomeLWLLW0.72
AwayLLWLD1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%16%28%
AVG goals3.383.043.72
Over 1.5 %86%76%96%
Over 2.5 %66%56%76%
Over 3.5 %52%44%60%
Scored1.180.961.40
Conceded2.202.082.32
BTTS58%44%72%
Clean Sheet12%16%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Olympia YerevanOlympia Yerevan513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
2BKMA IIBKMA II512
80%
2.4
134+9
3.4
100%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.60.8
-
3Pyunik IIPyunik II511
60%
2.2
117+4
3.6
60%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.4
-
4AndranikAndranik47
50%
1.8
94+5
3.2
75%
75%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1002.21.0
-
5MikaMika57
40%
1.4
1011-1
4.2
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.2
-
6Lernayin ArtsakhLernayin Artsakh46
50%
1.5
77+0
3.5
75%
75%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
7Bentonit IjevanBentonit Ijevan45
25%
1.2
138+5
5.2
100%
75%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.22.0
-
8Banants IIBanants II55
20%
1.0
713-6
4.0
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.6
-
9Noah IINoah II55
20%
1.0
613-7
3.8
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.6
-
10Araks AraratAraks Ararat34
33%
1.3
54+1
3.0
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.3
-
11Shirak IIShirak II44
25%
1.0
37-4
2.5
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
12Sardarapat 2Sardarapat 243
25%
0.8
26-4
2.0
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.5
-
13Ararat-Armenia IIArarat-Armenia II41
0%
0.2
15-4
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.21.2
-
14HayqHayq00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.00.0
-
15Ararat IIArarat II30
0%
0.0
29-7
3.7
100%
100%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.73.0
-
Armenia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →

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