Ararat II’s recent five matches have yielded no victories, and their home form shows a defensive frailty with an average of 3.5 goals conceded per game, while they manage just over one goal scored. Olympia Yerevan, on the other hand, has won two of their last four outings, averaging four goals scored and only one conceded on the road against similarly ranked opponents. The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected 3.9 goals and a 21% chance of six or more goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 for Olympia, a 8.3% probability. The favored outcome is an away win, with home win at 29%, draw at 22%, and away win at 50%. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (95.2%), Over 1.5 (91.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (90.6%), Under 6.5 (89.5%), Away over 0.5 goals (89.4%), Away +2 handicap (85.6%), Home over 0.5 goals (81.8%), and Away under 3.5 goals (81.1%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ararat II win
28.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Olympia Yerevan win
49.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ararat II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
3.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
2.17
1.38
1.94
1.36
2.43
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
1.23
3.00
1.17
3.50
1.29
2.57
vs Weaker (15)
1.53
1.53
1.67
0.89
1.33
2.50
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympia Yerevan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Olympia Yerevan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.80
1.00
2.33
0.33
3.50
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
3.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
4.00
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
1.00
2.50
0.00
3.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
91.2%
Under 1.5
8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
75.4%
Under 2.5
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
55.7%
Under 3.5
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
73.9%
No
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
8.3%
1-1
8.1%
2-2
7.1%
2-1
6.3%
1-3
6.2%
2-3
5.3%
0-2
4.9%
3-2
4.0%
Ararat II goals ↓
Olympia Yerevan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.7%
3.6%
4.9%
3.6%
2.0%
1
2.5%
8.1%
8.3%
6.2%
3.5%
2
2.8%
6.3%
7.1%
5.3%
3.0%
3
1.6%
3.6%
4.0%
3.0%
1.7%
4
0.7%
1.5%
1.7%
1.3%
0.7%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ararat II goals (down), columns = Olympia Yerevan goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
BKMA II
2.37
Hayq
2.27
Andranik
2.20
Pyunik II
1.47
Olympia Yerevan
1.30
Ararat II
1.27
Araks Ararat
1.23
Banants II
1.20
Noah II
1.03
Bentonit Ijevan
0.97
Mika
0.93
Ararat-Armenia II
0.80
Lernayin Artsakh
0.79
Sardarapat 2
0.74
Shirak II
0.60
Ararat II is 0.03 points worse than Olympia Yerevan in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 1.30).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BKMA II
2.57
Andranik
2.53
Hayq
1.97
Ararat-Armenia II
1.53
Banants II
1.53
Olympia Yerevan
1.50
Ararat II
1.43
Pyunik II
1.43
Noah II
1.30
Araks Ararat
1.27
Shirak II
1.13
Bentonit Ijevan
1.10
Mika
1.07
Sardarapat 2
0.85
Lernayin Artsakh
0.76
Ararat II is 0.06 goals worse than Olympia Yerevan in terms of goals scored per game (1.43 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hayq
0.80
Andranik
1.00
BKMA II
1.03
Pyunik II
1.43
Bentonit Ijevan
1.63
Araks Ararat
1.70
Olympia Yerevan
1.79
Banants II
1.80
Ararat II
1.93
Noah II
1.93
Mika
2.00
Ararat-Armenia II
2.07
Lernayin Artsakh
2.45
Shirak II
2.97
Sardarapat 2
3.15
Ararat II is 0.15 goals worse than Olympia Yerevan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.93 vs 1.79).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ararat II or Draw
50.4%
Avg Implied -
29%
22%
50%
covers Ararat II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ararat II or Olympia Yerevan
78.3%
Avg Implied -
29%
22%
50%
covers Ararat II + Olympia Yerevan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Olympia Yerevan
71.2%
Avg Implied -
29%
22%
50%
covers Draw + Olympia Yerevan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ararat II over/under 0.5
Over
81.8%
Under
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 1.5
Over
50.8%
Under
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 2.5
Over
24.4%
Under
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 3.5
Over
9.4%
Under
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympia Yerevan over/under 0.5
Over
89.4%
Under
10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympia Yerevan over/under 1.5
Over
65.6%
Under
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympia Yerevan over/under 2.5
Over
39.0%
Under
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympia Yerevan over/under 3.5
Over
19.0%
Under
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ararat II, so a minus line means Ararat II give that many goals of a start and Olympia Yerevan receive them. At -1, Ararat II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ararat II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ararat II)
Ararat II -2
5.8%
Draw -2
8.6%
Olympia Yerevan +2
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ararat II)
Ararat II -1
14.4%
Draw -1
14.4%
Olympia Yerevan +1
71.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ararat II)
Ararat II +1
50.4%
Draw +1
19.2%
Olympia Yerevan -1
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ararat II)
Ararat II +2
69.6%
Draw +2
14.9%
Olympia Yerevan -2
15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ararat II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.17
0.69
1.25
0.86
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.54
1.54
0.33
2.17
0.71
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
1.00
0.80
1.00
0.56
1.00
1.17
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympia Yerevan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Olympia Yerevan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.20
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
80% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.9%
Under 0.5
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.8%
Under 1.5
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.7%
Under 2.5
84.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ararat II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
31.8%
Under
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympia Yerevan over/under 0.5 HT
Over
66.9%
Under
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympia Yerevan over/under 1.5 HT
Over
30.2%
Under
69.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympia Yerevan over/under 2.5 HT
Over
11.6%
Under
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ararat II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.00
0.69
0.69
0.50
1.36
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (13)
0.69
1.46
0.83
1.33
0.57
1.57
vs Weaker (15)
0.53
0.73
0.67
0.33
0.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympia Yerevan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Olympia Yerevan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.80
1.33
0.00
1.50
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
85.8%
Under 0.5
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
55.9%
Under 1.5
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
28.5%
Under 2.5
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ararat II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
40.2%
Under
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.7%
Under
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympia Yerevan over/under 0.5 2H
Over
74.4%
Under
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympia Yerevan over/under 1.5 2H
Over
33.4%
Under
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympia Yerevan over/under 2.5 2H
Over
11.7%
Under
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 2H goals
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Armenia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
BKMA II
Pyunik II
Andranik
Mika
Lernayin Artsakh
Bentonit Ijevan
Banants II
Noah II
Araks Ararat
Shirak II
Sardarapat 2
Ararat-Armenia II
Hayq