Ararat II’s recent five-game slide, losing every match, clashes with Pyunik II’s unbeaten streak of three wins and two draws, setting the stage for a high-scoring affair. The model favours an away win, with a 50% chance, followed by a 27% home win and a 23% draw. The expected total goals sit at 3.5, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 9.9% probability. Ararat II, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 1.67 goals scored and 0.89 conceded, while Pyunik II, away against a stronger opponent, averages 1.14 scored and 2.57 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 97.3%, Home under 3.5 goals at 93.7%, Under 6.5 at 93.5%, Over 1.5 at 87.3%, Away +2 handicap at 87.3%, Away over 0.5 goals at 86.8%, Under 5.5 at 85.7% and Away under 3.5 goals at 85.2%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ararat II win
27.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pyunik II win
49.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ararat II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
3.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
2.17
1.38
1.94
1.36
2.43
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
1.23
3.00
1.17
3.50
1.29
2.57
vs Weaker (15)
1.53
1.53
1.67
0.89
1.33
2.50
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Pyunik II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pyunik II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.47
1.75
1.19
1.50
1.79
vs Stronger (13)
1.46
2.15
1.83
1.67
1.14
2.57
vs Similar (10)
1.90
0.80
2.00
1.00
1.67
0.33
vs Weaker (7)
1.57
1.14
1.00
0.67
2.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.4%
Under 1.5
12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
68.0%
Under 2.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
46.5%
Under 3.5
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
67.9%
No
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.9%
1-2
9.1%
2-2
6.7%
2-1
6.6%
0-2
6.2%
1-3
6.2%
0-1
5.2%
2-3
4.6%
Ararat II goals ↓
Pyunik II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
5.2%
6.2%
4.2%
2.1%
1
3.5%
9.9%
9.1%
6.2%
3.1%
2
3.3%
6.6%
6.7%
4.6%
2.3%
3
1.6%
3.3%
3.3%
2.2%
1.1%
4
0.6%
1.2%
1.2%
0.8%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ararat II goals (down), columns = Pyunik II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
BKMA II
2.37
Hayq
2.27
Andranik
2.20
Pyunik II
1.47
Olympia Yerevan
1.30
Ararat II
1.27
Araks Ararat
1.23
Banants II
1.20
Noah II
1.03
Bentonit Ijevan
0.97
Mika
0.93
Ararat-Armenia II
0.80
Lernayin Artsakh
0.79
Sardarapat 2
0.74
Shirak II
0.60
Ararat II is 0.20 points worse than Pyunik II in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 1.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BKMA II
2.57
Andranik
2.53
Hayq
1.97
Ararat-Armenia II
1.53
Banants II
1.53
Olympia Yerevan
1.50
Ararat II
1.43
Pyunik II
1.43
Noah II
1.30
Araks Ararat
1.27
Shirak II
1.13
Bentonit Ijevan
1.10
Mika
1.07
Sardarapat 2
0.85
Lernayin Artsakh
0.76
Ararat II and Pyunik II are level in goals scored per game (both 1.43).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hayq
0.80
Andranik
1.00
BKMA II
1.03
Pyunik II
1.43
Bentonit Ijevan
1.63
Araks Ararat
1.70
Olympia Yerevan
1.79
Banants II
1.80
Ararat II
1.93
Noah II
1.93
Mika
2.00
Ararat-Armenia II
2.07
Lernayin Artsakh
2.45
Shirak II
2.97
Sardarapat 2
3.15
Ararat II is 0.50 goals worse than Pyunik II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.93 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ararat II or Draw
50.4%
Avg Implied -
27%
23%
50%
covers Ararat II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ararat II or Pyunik II
76.8%
Avg Implied -
27%
23%
50%
covers Ararat II + Pyunik II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Pyunik II
72.9%
Avg Implied -
27%
23%
50%
covers Draw + Pyunik II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ararat II over/under 0.5
Over
77.1%
Under
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 1.5
Over
43.4%
Under
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 2.5
Over
18.5%
Under
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 3.5
Over
6.3%
Under
93.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik II over/under 0.5
Over
86.9%
Under
13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik II over/under 1.5
Over
60.2%
Under
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik II over/under 2.5
Over
33.1%
Under
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik II over/under 3.5
Over
14.8%
Under
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ararat II, so a minus line means Ararat II give that many goals of a start and Pyunik II receive them. At -1, Ararat II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ararat II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ararat II)
Ararat II -2
4.7%
Draw -2
8.0%
Pyunik II +2
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ararat II)
Ararat II -1
12.7%
Draw -1
14.4%
Pyunik II +1
72.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ararat II)
Ararat II +1
50.4%
Draw +1
20.2%
Pyunik II -1
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ararat II)
Ararat II +2
70.6%
Draw +2
15.2%
Pyunik II -2
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ararat II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.17
0.69
1.25
0.86
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.54
1.54
0.33
2.17
0.71
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
1.00
0.80
1.00
0.56
1.00
1.17
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Pyunik II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pyunik II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.81
0.44
0.36
0.79
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
0.69
0.67
0.50
0.29
0.86
vs Similar (10)
1.00
0.50
1.29
0.57
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (7)
0.29
0.57
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ararat II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ararat II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.00
0.69
0.69
0.50
1.36
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (13)
0.69
1.46
0.83
1.33
0.57
1.57
vs Weaker (15)
0.53
0.73
0.67
0.33
0.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Pyunik II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pyunik II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.87
0.94
0.75
1.14
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
1.00
1.46
1.17
1.17
0.86
1.71
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.30
0.71
0.43
1.33
0.00
vs Weaker (7)
1.29
0.57
1.00
0.67
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ararat II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Armenia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olympia Yerevan
BKMA II
Andranik
Mika
Lernayin Artsakh
Bentonit Ijevan
Banants II
Noah II
Araks Ararat
Shirak II
Sardarapat 2
Ararat-Armenia II
Hayq