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Araz Saatlı vs Karvan Result & Analysis

Date: 25/04/2024
Time: 11:30
Final 2-4
Araz Saatlı
Araz Saatlı
Vs
24%
27%
50%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Karvan
Karvan
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Araz Saatlı win✗ Miss
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Karvan win✓ Hit
49.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Araz SaatlıAraz Saatlı

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-604L11D01L02L46L14L40W41W04L02LA·DIF08/02H·ZAQ15/02A·KAR21/02H·QAR29/02A·MOI06/03A·IMI13/03H·MIN28/03A·İRƏ04/04H·DIF10/04A·ZAQ18/04
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.002.911.092.090.913.73
vs Stronger (13)0.853.380.332.331.294.29
vs Similar (3)1.673.332.503.000.004.00
vs Weaker (6)1.001.671.671.000.332.33
Clean sheet %5% (-26pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KarvanKarvan

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-610W10W10W02L06L01L00D11D10W01LA·MOI08/02A·QAR15/02H·ARA21/02A·IMI29/02H·ŞAM07/03A·MIN14/03H·DIF28/03A·ZAQ05/04H·MOI11/04H·QAR18/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.181.181.001.331.401.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.871.200.781.441.000.83
vs Weaker (7)1.861.141.671.002.001.25
Clean sheet %36% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz Saatlı) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%8%016%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.8%
Under 1.5
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.3%
Under 2.5
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.2%
Under 3.5
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.4%
No
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
0-1
9.6%
1-2
9.6%
0-2
8.9%
0-0
7.7%
2-1
6.2%
1-0
5.9%
1-3
5.3%
Araz Saatlı goals ↓
Karvan goals →
01234
07.7%9.6%8.9%4.9%2.0%
15.9%13%9.6%5.3%2.2%
23.8%6.2%5.2%2.8%1.2%
31.4%2.2%1.9%1.0%0.4%
40.4%0.6%0.5%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Araz Saatlı goals (down), columns = Karvan goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Şamaxı FK
2.11
Qaradağ Lökbatan
2.00
MOIK
1.81
Imisli FK
1.74
Karvan
1.63
İrəvan
1.11
Zaqatala
1.04
Mingəçevir
1.00
Difai Ağsu
0.85
Araz Saatlı
0.48
Araz Saatlı is 1.15 points worse than Karvan in terms of average points per game (0.48 vs 1.63).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Şamaxı FK
2.22
MOIK
1.96
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.70
Karvan
1.48
Imisli FK
1.41
İrəvan
1.30
Difai Ağsu
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Araz Saatlı
1.04
Mingəçevir
0.74
Araz Saatlı is 0.44 goals worse than Karvan in terms of goals scored per game (1.04 vs 1.48).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Imisli FK
0.78
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.78
Şamaxı FK
0.81
MOIK
1.04
Karvan
1.26
Zaqatala
1.37
Mingəçevir
1.44
Difai Ağsu
1.59
İrəvan
2.07
Araz Saatlı
2.96
Araz Saatlı is 1.70 goals worse than Karvan in terms of goals conceded per game (2.96 vs 1.26).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Araz SaatlıAraz Saatlı

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L01L00D01L13L02L20W30W02L01LA·DIF08/02H·ZAQ15/02A·KAR21/02H·QAR29/02A·MOI06/03A·IMI13/03H·MIN28/03A·İRƏ04/04H·DIF10/04A·ZAQ18/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.321.270.271.000.361.55
vs Stronger (13)0.381.310.170.830.571.71
vs Similar (3)0.001.670.001.500.002.00
vs Weaker (6)0.331.000.671.000.001.00
Clean sheet %27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KarvanKarvan

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D00D00D04L01L00D10W00D00DA·MOI08/02A·QAR15/02H·ARA21/02A·IMI29/02H·ŞAM07/03A·MIN14/03H·DIF28/03A·ZAQ05/04H·MOI11/04H·QAR18/04
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.360.590.250.750.500.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.270.600.220.890.330.17
vs Weaker (7)0.570.570.330.330.750.75
Clean sheet %68% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz Saatlı) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Araz Saatlı over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz Saatlı over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz Saatlı over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Araz SaatlıAraz Saatlı

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L10W01L01L33D12L20W11D02L01LA·DIF08/02H·ZAQ15/02A·KAR21/02H·QAR29/02A·MOI06/03A·IMI13/03H·MIN28/03A·İRƏ04/04H·DIF10/04A·ZAQ18/04
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.681.640.821.090.552.18
vs Stronger (13)0.462.080.171.500.712.57
vs Similar (3)1.671.672.501.500.002.00
vs Weaker (6)0.670.671.000.000.331.33
Clean sheet %14% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KarvanKarvan

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W10W02L02L00D00D01L10W01LA·MOI08/02A·QAR15/02H·ARA21/02A·IMI29/02H·ŞAM07/03A·MIN14/03H·DIF28/03A·ZAQ05/04H·MOI11/04H·QAR18/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.820.590.750.580.900.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.600.600.560.560.670.67
vs Weaker (7)1.290.571.330.671.250.50
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz Saatlı) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Araz Saatlı over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz Saatlı over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz Saatlı over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.570.8%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (18)
€6m
ŞF (15)
€4m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (7)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŞF (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (9)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€2m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
AS wins
0
Draws
2
KAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Araz Saatlı vs Karvan · H/A from AS
DateH/AGameScore
21/02/24AKarvan Vs AS1-0
01/11/23HAS Vs Karvan1-5

Araz SaatlıAraz Saatlı

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/24AZaqatala Vs AS2-0
10/04/24HAS Vs Difai Ağsu0-4
04/04/24Aİrəvan Vs AS1-4
28/03/24HAS Vs Mingəçevir4-0
13/03/24AImisli FK Vs AS4-1
06/03/24AMOIK Vs AS6-4
29/02/24HAS Vs Qaradağ Lökbatan0-2
21/02/24AKarvan Vs AS1-0
15/02/24HAS Vs Zaqatala1-1
08/02/24ADifai Ağsu Vs AS4-0

KarvanKarvan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/24HKAR Vs Qaradağ Lökbatan0-1
11/04/24HKAR Vs MOIK1-0
05/04/24AZaqatala Vs KAR1-1
28/03/24HKAR Vs Difai Ağsu0-0
14/03/24AMingəçevir Vs KAR1-0
07/03/24HKAR Vs Şamaxı FK0-6
29/02/24AImisli FK Vs KAR2-0
21/02/24HKAR Vs Araz Saatlı1-0
15/02/24AQaradağ Lökbatan Vs KAR0-1
08/02/24AMOIK Vs KAR0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Araz Saatlı
Araz Saatlı
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLL0.45
HomeLDLWL0.64
AwayLLLWL0.27
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %14%18%9%
AVG goals3.913.184.64
Over 1.5 %86%82%91%
Over 2.5 %64%55%73%
Over 3.5 %50%36%64%
Scored1.001.090.91
Conceded2.912.093.73
BTTS36%36%36%
Clean Sheet5%9%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Karvan
Karvan
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDWL1.45
HomeWLDWL1.42
AwayWWLLD1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %41%42%40%
AVG goals2.362.332.40
Over 1.5 %59%67%50%
Over 2.5 %32%33%30%
Over 3.5 %23%17%30%
Scored1.181.001.40
Conceded1.181.331.00
BTTS32%25%40%
Clean Sheet36%42%30%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK2757
59%
2.1
6022+38
3.0
74%
48%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1122.20.8
-
2Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan2754
56%
2.0
4621+25
2.5
74%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.8
-
3MOIKMOIK2749
52%
1.8
5328+25
3.0
70%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.0
-
4Imisli FKImisli FK2747
48%
1.7
3821+17
2.2
63%
52%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3131.40.8
-
5KarvanKarvan2744
48%
1.6
4034+6
2.7
59%
37%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.3
-
6İrəvanİrəvan2730
33%
1.1
3556-21
3.4
78%
59%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.1
-
7ZaqatalaZaqatala2728
22%
1.0
2837-9
2.4
85%
41%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.4
-
8MingəçevirMingəçevir2727
26%
1.0
2039-19
2.2
56%
37%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.4
-
9Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu2723
19%
0.9
3343-10
2.8
70%
52%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
10Araz SaatlıAraz Saatlı2713
15%
0.5
2880-52
4.0
89%
70%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.0
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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