Araz and Imisli FK face off in a finely balanced Azerbaijan: Premyer Liiga match on August 15, with the home side enjoying a recent resurgence, having won two of their last four games. The model's selection is the home win, with a 38% probability, but the draw is also a viable option, with a 31% chance. Imisli FK's away form is not to be underestimated, having drawn their last outing against Karvan, but their away scoring and conceding averages are lower than Araz's home form.
The expected total goals is 2.3, with the most likely total goals being 2. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 14.5%. Araz has a strong home record, scoring an average of 1.11 goals and conceding 1.56 goals per game against similar opponents, while Imisli FK has averaged 0.78 goals scored and conceded away against similar opponents.
The model's selection is the Under 3.5 goals, with an 80.2% probability. The suggested picks include the Under 3.5 goals, a 38% home win, a 31% away win, and a 31% draw.
Results analysis
The draw between Araz and Imisli FK extends their recent run of stalemates, with both teams coming off a 0-0 scoreline in their previous meetings. The final score was 0-0, resulting in a draw. The pre-match favourite, Araz, did not come through, with the model's selection of a home win being incorrect. The model's call was wrong. The model's selection, Araz, had a pre-match probability of 38%. In contrast, the model's selection of 'Under 3.5' hit, with a probability of 80.1%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Araz win✗ Miss
38.2%
Avg Implied 45.0% · @ 2.00
Edge
-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.07
Dafabet
2.04
Pinnacle
2.02
1xBet
2.01
Betfair
2.00
Draw✓ Hit
31.0%
Avg Implied 29.7% · @ 3.03
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.20
Betano
3.15
Dafabet
3.10
Betfair
3.10
Pinnacle
3.06
Imisli FK win✗ Miss
30.8%
Avg Implied 25.3% · @ 3.56
Edge
+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.70
1xBet
3.70
Bet365
3.70
10Bet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.62
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Araz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.83
1.24
1.47
1.23
2.31
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
5.33
0.00
5.00
0.50
5.50
vs Similar (21)
1.24
1.76
1.18
1.64
1.30
1.90
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
0.33
1.60
0.40
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Imisli FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Imisli FK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.40
0.64
1.43
0.88
1.38
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
2.18
0.33
1.83
0.60
2.60
vs Similar (19)
0.95
0.95
0.88
1.12
1.00
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.0%
@ 1.37+0.9%
Under 1.5
32.0%
@ 2.79-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
1xBet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.37
888Sport
1.36
Under
10Bet
3.00
Betano
2.90
888Sport
2.80
Pinnacle
2.76
Bet365
2.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.2%
@ 2.13-3.5%
Under 2.5
59.8%
@ 1.65+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.30
Bet365
2.25
Marathonbet
2.21
1xBet
2.21
888Sport
2.15
Under
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Unibet
1.71
888Sport
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.9%
@ 3.75-4.6%
Under 3.5
80.1%
@ 1.22+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.00
888Sport
4.00
Marathonbet
3.90
1xBet
3.90
10Bet
3.60
Under
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
888Sport
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.7%
@ 1.87-1.5%
No
52.3%
@ 1.80+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Marathonbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
888Sport
1.91
William Hil
1.91
Bet365
1.91
No
Betano
1.90
10Bet
1.85
William Hil
1.80
888Sport
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%@ 5.46+6.7%
0-0 ✓
11.4%@ 7.39+5.7%
1-0
11.0%@ 5.81+3.7%
0-1
9.5%@ 8.47+4.5%
2-1
8.1%@ 7.95+2.7%
2-0
7.5%@ 8.31+2.4%
1-2
7.1%@ 11.58+3.4%
0-2
5.8%@ 16.29+3.2%
Araz goals ↓
Imisli FK goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.5%
5.8%
2.1%
0.6%
1
11%
15%
7.1%
2.5%
0.7%
2
7.5%
8.1%
4.3%
1.5%
0.4%
3
3.1%
3.3%
1.8%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.9%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Araz goals (down), columns = Imisli FK goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Safa Baku
1.09
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Araz is 0.33 points better than Imisli FK in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Safa Baku
1.02
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Araz is 0.61 goals better than Imisli FK in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 0.72).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Qarabag
0.82
Turan
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Safa Baku
1.57
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Araz is 0.51 goals worse than Imisli FK in terms of goals conceded per game (1.76 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Araz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.77
0.65
0.47
0.38
1.15
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
2.33
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.71
0.64
0.45
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.17
0.80
0.20
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Imisli FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Imisli FK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.53
0.29
0.57
0.38
0.50
vs Stronger (11)
0.18
0.64
0.17
0.50
0.20
0.80
vs Similar (19)
0.42
0.47
0.38
0.62
0.45
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Araz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Araz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.07
0.59
1.00
0.85
1.15
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (21)
0.71
1.05
0.55
1.18
0.90
0.90
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.17
0.80
0.20
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Imisli FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Imisli FK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.87
0.36
0.86
0.50
0.88
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
1.55
0.17
1.33
0.40
1.80
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.47
0.50
0.50
0.55
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Araz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
80.1%
1.22
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
888Sport
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
+4.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SB (15)
€4m
ŞF (15)
€4m
Araz and Imisli FK have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
SB (5)
€1m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
Araz and Imisli FK have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
SB (2)
€0m
Araz's midfield is €1m more valuable than Imisli FK's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
SB (8)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
Araz's defence is €1m less valuable than Imisli FK's (€2m vs €3m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zira
Neftchi Baku
Qarabag
Sabah FA
Turan
Kapaz
Safa Baku
Şamaxı FK
Qabala
Sumqayıt