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Araz vs Kapaz Result & Analysis

Date: 15/05/2026
Time: 15:30
Final 2-0
Araz
Araz
Vs
46%
29%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kapaz
Kapaz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Araz a 46% win probability against Kapaz in the Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa on 2026-05-15, with 29% for the draw and 26% for Kapaz. The model estimates around 2.5 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (27%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.7%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (75%), Over 1.5 (73%).

Results analysis

Araz finished 2-0 against Kapaz (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 46% home win, 29% draw and 26% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (75%), Over 1.5 (73%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Araz win✓ Hit
45.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kapaz win✗ Miss
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ArazAraz

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-601L06L21W10W24L12L03L11D01L12LH·ZIR27/02A·QAR08/03H·KAR13/03A·ŞAM18/03H·SAB07/04A·NEF11/04H·TUR17/04A·QAB25/04H·IMI02/05A·SUM09/05
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.831.201.601.332.07
vs Stronger (6)1.004.331.333.670.675.00
vs Similar (10)1.001.700.501.671.751.75
vs Weaker (14)1.570.861.830.501.381.12
Clean sheet %23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KapazKapaz

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W22D11D10W02L14L01L02L21W10WH·SUM27/02A·ZIR09/03H·TUR15/03H·QAR20/03H·QAB05/04A·KAR10/04H·IMI19/04A·ŞAM26/04H·SUM02/05A·SAB08/05
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.830.801.670.872.00
vs Stronger (27)0.781.850.861.640.692.08
vs Similar (3)1.331.670.002.002.001.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%314%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.0%
Under 1.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.2%
Under 2.5
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.7%
Under 3.5
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.4%
No
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
10.6%
0-0
9.3%
2-1
9.1%
2-0 ✓
8.7%
0-1
7.2%
1-2
6.5%
2-2
4.8%
Araz goals ↓
Kapaz goals →
01234
09.3%7.2%4.4%1.6%0.4%
111%14%6.5%2.3%0.6%
28.7%9.1%4.8%1.7%0.4%
34.2%4.5%2.4%0.8%0.2%
41.6%1.6%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Araz goals (down), columns = Kapaz goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Karvan
0.45
Mingəçevir
0.00
Araz is 0.58 points better than Kapaz in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 0.82).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Karvan
0.70
Mingəçevir
0.00
Araz is 0.58 goals better than Kapaz in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 0.76).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Turan
0.82
Qarabag
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Mingəçevir
2.00
Karvan
2.00
Araz is 0.09 goals better than Kapaz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.76 vs 1.85).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
ZIR (23)
€12m
ARA (19)
€6m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
ARA (7)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
ARA (5)
€2m
ZIR (3)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
ZIR (10)
€6m
ARA (7)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Araz vs Kapaz · H/A from ARA
DateH/AGameScore
09/12/25HARA Vs Kapaz2-0
12/09/25AKapaz Vs ARA0-2
13/04/25AKapaz Vs ARA0-0
10/02/25HARA Vs Kapaz0-0
22/11/24AKapaz Vs ARA0-2
13/09/24HARA Vs Kapaz1-0
05/04/24HARA Vs Kapaz1-2
05/02/24AKapaz Vs ARA3-1

ArazAraz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/26ASumqayıt Vs ARA2-1
02/05/26HARA Vs Imisli FK0-1
25/04/26AQabala Vs ARA1-1
17/04/26HARA Vs Turan0-3
11/04/26ANeftchi Baku Vs ARA2-1
07/04/26HARA Vs Sabah FA2-4
18/03/26AŞamaxı FK Vs ARA0-1
13/03/26HARA Vs Karvan2-1
08/03/26AQarabag Vs ARA6-0
27/02/26HARA Vs Zira0-1

KapazKapaz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/05/26ASabah FA Vs KAP0-1
02/05/26HKAP Vs Sumqayıt2-1
26/04/26AŞamaxı FK Vs KAP2-0
19/04/26HKAP Vs Imisli FK0-1
10/04/26AKarvan Vs KAP4-1
05/04/26HKAP Vs Qabala0-2
20/03/26HKAP Vs Qarabag1-0
15/03/26HKAP Vs Turan1-1
09/03/26AZira Vs KAP2-2
27/02/26HKAP Vs Sumqayıt3-0

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Araz
Araz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLL1.18
HomeLWLLL1.36
AwayLWLDL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%36%20%
AVG goals2.722.482.96
Over 1.5 %80%76%84%
Over 2.5 %48%44%52%
Over 3.5 %30%24%36%
Scored1.081.041.12
Conceded1.641.441.84
BTTS54%44%64%
Clean Sheet24%28%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Kapaz
Kapaz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWW0.98
HomeDWLLW1.20
AwayLDLLW0.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%32%20%
AVG goals2.462.242.68
Over 1.5 %68%64%72%
Over 2.5 %44%32%56%
Over 3.5 %24%20%28%
Scored0.820.960.68
Conceded1.641.282.00
BTTS32%36%28%
Clean Sheet26%32%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Sabah FASabah FA3378
73%
2.4
7525+50
3.0
76%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5572.30.8
-
2QarabagQarabag3369
64%
2.1
7127+44
3.0
76%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.20.8
-
3Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3359
48%
1.8
5732+25
2.7
73%
55%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.0
-
4TuranTuran3359
52%
1.8
4427+17
2.2
67%
45%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.30.8
-
5ZiraZira3353
39%
1.6
4336+7
2.4
70%
42%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.31.1
-
6ArazAraz3346
39%
1.4
4458-14
3.1
88%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3221.31.8
-
7SumqayıtSumqayıt3238
34%
1.2
4249-7
2.8
78%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.5
-
8Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3338
27%
1.2
3140-9
2.2
67%
45%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.2
-
9Imisli FKImisli FK3234
22%
1.1
2340-17
2.0
53%
31%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.2
-
10QabalaQabala3430
24%
0.9
3449-15
2.4
68%
41%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.4
-
11KapazKapaz3327
24%
0.8
2561-36
2.6
76%
45%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
12KarvanKarvan3315
9%
0.5
2366-43
2.7
82%
48%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.0
-
13MingəçevirMingəçevir10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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