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Araz vs Neftchi Baku Result & Analysis

Date: 24/08/2024
Time: 16:30
Final 1-1
Araz
Araz
Vs
29%
31%
41%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Araz win✗ Miss
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku win✗ Miss
40.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ArazAraz

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L03L02L10W01L01L02L22D14L10WH·KAP05/04A·NEF13/04H·SƏB21/04A·ZIR29/04H·SAB05/05H·TUR11/05A·QAB19/05H·QAR26/05H·QAR02/08H·ŞAM10/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.530.871.330.801.73
vs Stronger (4)1.502.501.672.331.003.00
vs Similar (20)0.701.250.750.880.671.50
vs Weaker (6)0.831.830.501.501.502.50
Clean sheet %17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-530W13L30W05L51W30W01L00D11D02LH·ARA13/04A·ZIR20/04H·TUR28/04A·QAR04/05H·KAP10/05A·SƏB18/05H·SAB25/05H·TUR03/08A·SƏB10/08H·SAB18/08
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.201.650.941.311.54
vs Stronger (3)0.333.671.004.000.003.50
vs Similar (14)1.000.861.200.700.501.25
vs Weaker (13)2.311.002.500.832.141.14
Clean sheet %37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%220%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.7%
Under 1.5
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.0%
Under 2.5
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.5%
Under 3.5
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.0%
No
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.4%
0-1
11.3%
0-0
11.1%
1-0
8.9%
1-2
8.4%
0-2
8.1%
2-1
6.8%
2-0
5.3%
Araz goals ↓
Neftchi Baku goals →
01234
011%11%8.1%3.5%1.1%
18.9%14%8.4%3.6%1.2%
25.3%6.8%4.4%1.9%0.6%
31.8%2.3%1.5%0.6%0.2%
40.5%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Araz goals (down), columns = Neftchi Baku goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qarabag
2.47
Zira
2.06
Araz
1.61
Turan
1.53
Sabah FA
1.33
Neftchi Baku
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.00
Sumqayıt
0.92
Kapaz
0.89
Səbail
0.61
Araz is 0.42 points better than Neftchi Baku in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 1.19).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.39
Zira
1.64
Sabah FA
1.39
Turan
1.25
Neftchi Baku
1.08
Araz
0.94
Şamaxı FK
0.89
Sumqayıt
0.86
Səbail
0.78
Kapaz
0.78
Araz is 0.14 goals worse than Neftchi Baku in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 1.08).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Qarabag
0.53
Zira
0.75
Araz
0.81
Turan
1.08
Sabah FA
1.28
Şamaxı FK
1.28
Neftchi Baku
1.36
Sumqayıt
1.47
Səbail
1.64
Kapaz
1.81
Araz is 0.56 goals better than Neftchi Baku in terms of goals conceded per game (0.81 vs 1.36).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ArazAraz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W02L01L00D01L00D00D12L02L00DH·KAP05/04A·NEF13/04H·SƏB21/04A·ZIR29/04H·SAB05/05H·TUR11/05A·QAB19/05H·QAR26/05H·QAR02/08H·ŞAM10/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.700.330.530.330.87
vs Stronger (4)0.251.500.331.330.002.00
vs Similar (20)0.200.550.250.380.170.67
vs Weaker (6)0.830.670.500.251.501.50
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W11D20W02L21W00D00D00D10W00DH·ARA13/04A·ZIR20/04H·TUR28/04A·QAR04/05H·KAP10/05A·SƏB18/05H·SAB25/05H·TUR03/08A·SƏB10/08H·SAB18/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.330.760.180.460.54
vs Stronger (3)0.000.670.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (14)0.570.140.700.100.250.25
vs Weaker (13)0.850.461.000.330.710.57
Clean sheet %73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Araz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ArazAraz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L01L01L10W00D01L02L10W12L10WH·KAP05/04A·NEF13/04H·SƏB21/04A·ZIR29/04H·SAB05/05H·TUR11/05A·QAB19/05H·QAR26/05H·QAR02/08H·ŞAM10/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.830.530.800.470.87
vs Stronger (4)1.251.001.331.001.001.00
vs Similar (20)0.500.700.500.500.500.83
vs Weaker (6)0.001.170.001.250.001.00
Clean sheet %37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W02L10W03L30W30W01L00D01L02LH·ARA13/04A·ZIR20/04H·TUR28/04A·QAR04/05H·KAP10/05A·SƏB18/05H·SAB25/05H·TUR03/08A·SƏB10/08H·SAB18/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.870.880.760.851.00
vs Stronger (3)0.333.001.004.000.002.50
vs Similar (14)0.430.710.500.600.251.00
vs Weaker (13)1.460.541.500.501.430.57
Clean sheet %47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Araz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.579.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Araz's squad is €7m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€6m vs €13m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Araz's attack is €1m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€3m vs €4m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Araz's midfield is €1m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€2m vs €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Araz's defence is €5m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€2m vs €6m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
2
ARA wins
1
Draws
1
NB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Araz vs Neftchi Baku · H/A from ARA
DateH/AGameScore
13/04/24ANeftchi Baku Vs ARA3-0
13/02/24HARA Vs Neftchi Baku1-0
26/11/23ANeftchi Baku Vs ARA1-1
16/09/23HARA Vs Neftchi Baku1-0

ArazAraz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/08/24HARA Vs Şamaxı FK1-0
02/08/24HARA Vs Qarabag1-4
26/05/24HARA Vs Qarabag2-2
19/05/24AQabala Vs ARA2-0
11/05/24HARA Vs Turan0-1
05/05/24HARA Vs Sabah FA0-1
29/04/24AZira Vs ARA0-1
21/04/24HARA Vs Səbail0-2
13/04/24ANeftchi Baku Vs ARA3-0
05/04/24HARA Vs Kapaz1-2

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/08/24HNB Vs Sabah FA0-2
10/08/24ASəbail Vs NB1-1
03/08/24HNB Vs Turan0-0
25/05/24HNB Vs Sabah FA0-1
18/05/24ASəbail Vs NB0-3
10/05/24HNB Vs Kapaz5-1
04/05/24AQarabag Vs NB5-0
28/04/24HNB Vs Turan3-0
20/04/24AZira Vs NB3-1
13/04/24HNB Vs Araz3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Araz
Araz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLW1.40
HomeLLDLW1.62
AwayLLLWL1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%46%33%
AVG goals2.542.192.92
Over 1.5 %76%69%83%
Over 2.5 %42%35%50%
Over 3.5 %22%15%29%
Scored1.261.231.29
Conceded1.280.961.62
BTTS44%35%54%
Clean Sheet30%42%17%
Corners---
Cards---
Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDDL1.40
HomeWWLDL1.58
AwayWLLWD1.21
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%46%29%
AVG goals2.602.622.58
Over 1.5 %74%77%71%
Over 2.5 %42%42%42%
Over 3.5 %26%23%29%
Scored1.341.501.17
Conceded1.261.121.42
BTTS48%46%50%
Clean Sheet32%38%25%
Corners10.2511.509.00
Cards5.005.504.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QarabagQarabag3689
78%
2.5
8619+67
2.9
78%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.40.5
-
2ZiraZira3674
64%
2.1
5927+32
2.4
67%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.60.8
-
3ArazAraz3658
42%
1.6
3429+5
1.8
53%
17%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3220.90.8
-
4TuranTuran3655
39%
1.5
4539+6
2.3
64%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.21.1
-
5Sabah FASabah FA3648
28%
1.3
5046+4
2.7
75%
42%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5571.41.3
-
6Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3643
28%
1.2
3949-10
2.4
75%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.11.4
-
7Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3636
25%
1.0
3246-14
2.2
61%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.91.3
-
8SumqayıtSumqayıt3633
25%
0.9
3153-22
2.3
61%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4240.91.5
-
9KapazKapaz3632
22%
0.9
2865-37
2.6
67%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1230.81.8
-
10SəbailSəbail3622
11%
0.6
2859-31
2.4
67%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.81.6
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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