The model favours an away win, with a 53% chance for Neftchi Baku and a 20% chance for Araz, while a draw sits at 27%. The expected total goals hover at 2.5, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13% probability. Araz, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 0.92 goals scored and 1.58 conceded, whereas Neftchi Baku on the road averages 1.0 goal scored and 0.71 conceded. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.6%), Under 6.5 (98.6%), Under 5.5 (95.8%), Home under 2.5 goals (93.7%), Away +2 handicap (93.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.1%) and Under 4.5 (89.1%). Araz’s recent form shows two straight defeats, last match 0-1 to Sabah FA, while Neftchi Baku’s last five are LWWWW, coming off a 0-1 loss to Zira.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Araz win
21.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku win
50.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Araz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.83
1.12
1.24
1.15
2.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
5.50
-
-
0.50
5.50
vs Similar (22)
1.05
1.91
0.92
1.58
1.20
2.30
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
0.33
1.60
0.40
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neftchi Baku
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.00
2.69
1.23
1.71
0.82
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.67
1.50
3.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
1.67
0.75
2.60
0.80
1.00
0.71
vs Weaker (15)
2.73
0.87
3.17
1.00
2.44
0.78
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
72.3%
Under 1.5
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
45.4%
Under 2.5
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.0%
Under 3.5
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.2%
No
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
0-1
11.7%
0-2
10.0%
0-0
9.5%
1-2
9.4%
1-0
6.6%
2-1
5.7%
0-3
5.2%
Araz goals ↓
Neftchi Baku goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.5%
12%
10.0%
5.2%
2.0%
1
6.6%
13%
9.4%
4.8%
1.9%
2
3.6%
5.7%
4.4%
2.3%
0.9%
3
1.1%
1.8%
1.4%
0.7%
0.3%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Araz goals (down), columns = Neftchi Baku goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Safa Baku
1.09
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Araz is 0.39 points worse than Neftchi Baku in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.79).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Safa Baku
1.02
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Araz is 0.39 goals worse than Neftchi Baku in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.73).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Qarabag
0.82
Turan
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Safa Baku
1.57
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Araz is 0.79 goals worse than Neftchi Baku in terms of goals conceded per game (1.76 vs 0.97).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Araz or Draw
49.6%
Avg Implied -
22%
28%
50%
covers Araz + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Araz or Neftchi Baku
72.1%
Avg Implied -
22%
28%
50%
covers Araz + Neftchi Baku
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Neftchi Baku
78.4%
Avg Implied -
22%
28%
50%
covers Draw + Neftchi Baku
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Araz over/under 0.5
Over
60.9%
Under
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5
Over
24.1%
Under
75.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 3.5
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5
Over
78.8%
Under
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5
Over
45.9%
Under
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5
Over
20.4%
Under
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 3.5
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Araz, so a minus line means Araz give that many goals of a start and Neftchi Baku receive them. At -1, Araz must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Araz win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Araz)
Araz -2
2.1%
Draw -2
5.8%
Neftchi Baku +2
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Araz)
Araz -1
7.8%
Draw -1
13.8%
Neftchi Baku +1
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Araz)
Araz +1
49.6%
Draw +1
23.6%
Neftchi Baku -1
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Araz)
Araz +2
73.2%
Draw +2
15.8%
Neftchi Baku -2
11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Araz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.80
0.59
0.35
0.38
1.38
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.50
-
-
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (22)
0.45
0.82
0.50
0.42
0.40
1.30
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.17
0.80
0.20
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neftchi Baku
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.33
1.38
0.38
0.65
0.29
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (12)
0.92
0.25
1.60
0.20
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (15)
1.13
0.27
1.50
0.17
0.89
0.33
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Araz over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Araz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.03
0.53
0.88
0.77
1.23
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
3.00
-
-
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (22)
0.59
1.09
0.42
1.17
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.17
0.80
0.20
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neftchi Baku
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.67
1.31
0.85
1.06
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
1.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.60
0.57
0.43
vs Weaker (15)
1.60
0.60
1.67
0.83
1.56
0.44
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Araz over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SB (15)
€4m
ŞF (15)
€4m
Araz's squad is €7m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€6m vs €13m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
SB (5)
€1m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
Araz's attack is €1m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€3m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
SB (2)
€0m
Araz's midfield is €1m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€2m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
SB (8)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
Araz's defence is €5m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€2m vs €6m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zira
Qarabag
Sabah FA
Turan
Qabala
Imisli FK
Kapaz
Safa Baku
Şamaxı FK
Sumqayıt