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Araz vs Qabala Result & Analysis

Date: 30/08/2025
Time: 16:30
Final 2-1
Araz
Araz
Vs
39%
32%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Qabala
Qabala
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Araz win✓ Hit
38.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Qabala win✗ Miss
29.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ArazAraz

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D02L10W01L21W22D04L05L11D21WH·SAB03/05A·QAR11/05A·ŞAM17/05H·ZIR25/05H·ARI24/07A·ARI31/07H·OMO07/08A·OMO14/08A·ZIR19/08A·TUR24/08
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.801.200.861.000.751.38
vs Stronger (5)0.402.001.001.500.002.33
vs Similar (21)1.001.191.001.101.001.27
vs Weaker (4)0.250.250.000.000.500.50
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QabalaQabala

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-550W40W01L10W02L31W40W30W11D12LA·BAK04/04H·DIF11/04A·IMI18/04H·MOI25/04A·KAR02/05H·CƏB08/05H·ZAQ15/05A·QAR22/05A·KAR15/08H·ZIR25/08← Birinci DastaPremyer Liqa →
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.070.432.000.312.140.57
vs Stronger (2)0.502.000.502.00--
vs Similar (20)2.100.252.000.002.180.45
vs Weaker (8)2.380.502.600.202.001.00
Clean sheet %70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%022%128%219%310%45%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.8%
Under 1.5
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
36.6%
Under 2.5
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.2%
Under 3.5
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.6%
No
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
12.9%
1-0
12.2%
0-1
10.0%
2-0
8.0%
2-1 ✓
7.8%
1-2
6.6%
0-2
5.6%
Araz goals ↓
Qabala goals →
01234
013%10%5.6%1.8%0.4%
112%15%6.6%2.1%0.5%
28.0%7.8%3.9%1.3%0.3%
33.1%3.1%1.5%0.5%0.1%
40.9%0.9%0.4%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Araz goals (down), columns = Qabala goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Karvan
0.45
Mingəçevir
0.00
Araz is 0.51 points better than Qabala in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 0.88).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Karvan
0.70
Mingəçevir
0.00
Araz is 0.33 goals better than Qabala in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Turan
0.82
Qarabag
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Mingəçevir
2.00
Karvan
2.00
Araz is 0.32 goals worse than Qabala in terms of goals conceded per game (1.76 vs 1.44).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ArazAraz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D01L10W00D00D20W02L04L01L10WH·SAB03/05A·QAR11/05A·ŞAM17/05H·ZIR25/05H·ARI24/07A·ARI31/07H·OMO07/08A·OMO14/08A·ZIR19/08A·TUR24/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.500.430.360.560.62
vs Stronger (5)0.400.601.000.500.000.67
vs Similar (21)0.570.570.400.400.730.73
vs Weaker (4)0.250.000.000.000.500.00
Clean sheet %63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QabalaQabala

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W30W01L00D00D10W20W00D00D12LA·BAK04/04H·DIF11/04A·IMI18/04H·MOI25/04A·KAR02/05H·CƏB08/05H·ZAQ15/05A·QAR22/05A·KAR15/08H·ZIR25/08← Birinci DastaPremyer Liqa →
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.171.060.190.710.14
vs Stronger (2)0.501.500.501.50--
vs Similar (20)0.700.050.780.000.640.09
vs Weaker (8)1.500.121.800.001.000.33
Clean sheet %87% (+55pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Araz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ArazAraz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L00D01L21W02L02L01L10W11DH·SAB03/05A·QAR11/05A·ŞAM17/05H·ZIR25/05H·ARI24/07A·ARI31/07H·OMO07/08A·OMO14/08A·ZIR19/08A·TUR24/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.700.430.640.190.75
vs Stronger (5)0.001.400.001.000.001.67
vs Similar (21)0.430.620.600.700.270.55
vs Weaker (4)0.000.250.000.000.000.50
Clean sheet %47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QabalaQabala

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W10W00D10W02L21W20W30W11D00DA·BAK04/04H·DIF11/04A·IMI18/04H·MOI25/04A·KAR02/05H·CƏB08/05H·ZAQ15/05A·QAR22/05A·KAR15/08H·ZIR25/08← Birinci DastaPremyer Liqa →
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.270.940.121.430.43
vs Stronger (2)0.000.500.000.50--
vs Similar (20)1.400.201.220.001.550.36
vs Weaker (8)0.880.380.800.201.000.67
Clean sheet %77% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Araz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.582.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
Araz's squad is €1m more valuable than Qabala's (€6m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
Araz's attack is €2m more valuable than Qabala's (€3m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
Araz and Qabala have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
Araz's defence is €1m less valuable than Qabala's (€2m vs €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
2
ARA wins
1
Draws
1
QAB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Araz vs Qabala · H/A from ARA
DateH/AGameScore
19/05/24AQabala Vs ARA2-0
16/03/24HARA Vs Qabala1-1
22/10/23AQabala Vs ARA1-4
12/08/23HARA Vs Qabala2-0

ArazAraz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/08/25ATuran Vs ARA1-2
19/08/25AZira Vs ARA1-1
14/08/25AOmonia Nicosia Vs ARA5-0
07/08/25HARA Vs Omonia Nicosia0-4
31/07/25AAris Thessalonikis Vs ARA2-2
24/07/25HARA Vs Aris Thessalonikis2-1
25/05/25HARA Vs Zira0-1
17/05/25AŞamaxı FK Vs ARA0-1
11/05/25AQarabag Vs ARA2-0
03/05/25HARA Vs Sabah FA1-1

QabalaQabala

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/08/25HQAB Vs Zira1-2
15/08/25AKarvan Vs QAB1-1
22/05/25AQaradağ Lökbatan Vs QAB0-3
15/05/25HQAB Vs Zaqatala4-0
08/05/25HQAB Vs Cəbrayıl3-1
02/05/25AKarvan Vs QAB2-0
25/04/25HQAB Vs MOIK1-0
18/04/25AImisli FK Vs QAB1-0
11/04/25HQAB Vs Difai Ağsu4-0
04/04/25ABaku Sportinq Vs QAB0-5

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Araz
Araz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLDW1.64
HomeDDLWL1.71
AwayWDLDW1.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%46%42%
AVG goals2.102.172.04
Over 1.5 %62%58%65%
Over 2.5 %30%33%27%
Over 3.5 %20%25%15%
Scored1.081.121.04
Conceded1.021.041.00
BTTS40%50%31%
Clean Sheet40%38%42%
Corners---
Cards---
Qabala
Qabala
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDL1.72
HomeWWWWL1.81
AwayWLLWD1.61
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%56%48%
AVG goals2.522.192.91
Over 1.5 %74%67%83%
Over 2.5 %46%37%57%
Over 3.5 %28%22%35%
Scored1.621.521.74
Conceded0.900.671.17
BTTS32%19%48%
Clean Sheet50%63%35%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Sabah FASabah FA3378
73%
2.4
7525+50
3.0
76%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5572.30.8
-
2QarabagQarabag3369
64%
2.1
7127+44
3.0
76%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.20.8
-
3Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3359
48%
1.8
5732+25
2.7
73%
55%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.71.0
-
4TuranTuran3359
52%
1.8
4427+17
2.2
67%
45%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.30.8
-
5ZiraZira3353
39%
1.6
4336+7
2.4
70%
42%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.31.1
-
6ArazAraz3346
39%
1.4
4458-14
3.1
88%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3221.31.8
-
7SumqayıtSumqayıt3238
34%
1.2
4249-7
2.8
78%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4241.31.5
-
8Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3338
27%
1.2
3140-9
2.2
67%
45%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.91.2
-
9Imisli FKImisli FK3234
22%
1.1
2340-17
2.0
53%
31%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3130.71.2
-
10QabalaQabala3430
24%
0.9
3449-15
2.4
68%
41%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1131.01.4
-
11KapazKapaz3327
24%
0.8
2561-36
2.6
76%
45%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1230.81.8
-
12KarvanKarvan3315
9%
0.5
2366-43
2.7
82%
48%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.72.0
-
13MingəçevirMingəçevir10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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