Araz are the clear favorites, with a 42% chance of triumph, a 30% chance of a draw and a 27% chance of Qabala winning. The model predicts an average of 2.3 goals, most likely a 2-goal total, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 14.3%. Araz, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, average 1.08 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Qabala, on the road, average 1.25 goals scored and 0.88 conceded. The suggested picks are: Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.1%), Under 5.5 (96.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.8%), Under 4.5 (91.3%) and Home +2 handicap (89.5%). Araz are coming off a defeat, while Qabala are coming off a draw.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Araz win
42.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Qabala win
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Araz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.83
1.12
1.24
1.15
2.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
5.50
-
-
0.50
5.50
vs Similar (22)
1.05
1.91
0.92
1.58
1.20
2.30
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
0.33
1.60
0.40
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Qabala
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.33
1.12
1.35
0.85
1.31
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
1.90
1.00
1.80
0.20
2.00
vs Similar (19)
1.16
1.11
1.09
1.27
1.25
0.88
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.5%
Under 1.5
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
39.5%
Under 2.5
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.4%
Under 3.5
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
46.5%
No
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
1-0
12.1%
0-0
11.7%
0-1
8.8%
2-0
8.6%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
6.4%
0-2
4.9%
Araz goals ↓
Qabala goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
8.8%
4.9%
1.6%
0.4%
1
12%
14%
6.4%
2.1%
0.5%
2
8.6%
8.4%
4.1%
1.3%
0.3%
3
3.7%
3.6%
1.8%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.2%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Araz goals (down), columns = Qabala goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Safa Baku
1.09
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Araz is 0.51 points better than Qabala in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 0.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Safa Baku
1.02
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Araz is 0.33 goals better than Qabala in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Qarabag
0.82
Turan
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Safa Baku
1.57
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Araz is 0.32 goals worse than Qabala in terms of goals conceded per game (1.76 vs 1.44).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Araz or Draw
73.2%
Avg Implied -
42%
31%
27%
covers Araz + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Araz or Qabala
69.2%
Avg Implied -
42%
31%
27%
covers Araz + Qabala
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Qabala
57.6%
Avg Implied -
42%
31%
27%
covers Draw + Qabala
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Araz over/under 0.5
Over
72.5%
Under
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5
Over
37.0%
Under
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 3.5
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 0.5
Over
62.3%
Under
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 1.5
Over
25.6%
Under
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 2.5
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 3.5
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Araz, so a minus line means Araz give that many goals of a start and Qabala receive them. At -1, Araz must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Araz win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Araz)
Araz -2
7.1%
Draw -2
12.9%
Qabala +2
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Araz)
Araz -1
19.9%
Draw -1
22.5%
Qabala +1
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Araz)
Araz +1
73.2%
Draw +1
16.7%
Qabala -1
10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Araz)
Araz +2
89.8%
Draw +2
7.4%
Qabala -2
2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Araz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.80
0.59
0.35
0.38
1.38
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.50
-
-
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (22)
0.45
0.82
0.50
0.42
0.40
1.30
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.17
0.80
0.20
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Qabala
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.70
0.71
0.71
0.15
0.69
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
1.00
0.40
0.80
0.00
1.20
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.58
0.73
0.73
0.25
0.38
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Araz over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Araz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.03
0.53
0.88
0.77
1.23
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
3.00
-
-
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (22)
0.59
1.09
0.42
1.17
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.17
0.80
0.20
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Qabala
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.63
0.41
0.65
0.69
0.62
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.90
0.60
1.00
0.20
0.80
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.53
0.36
0.55
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Araz over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SB (15)
€4m
ŞF (15)
€4m
Araz's squad is €1m more valuable than Qabala's (€6m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
SB (5)
€1m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
Araz's attack is €2m more valuable than Qabala's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
SB (2)
€0m
Araz and Qabala have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
SB (8)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
Araz's defence is €1m less valuable than Qabala's (€2m vs €3m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zira
Neftchi Baku
Qarabag
Sabah FA
Turan
Imisli FK
Kapaz
Safa Baku
Şamaxı FK
Sumqayıt