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Araz vs Qarabag Result & Analysis

Date: 30/10/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 2-1
Araz
Araz
Vs
21%
27%
52%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Qarabag
Qarabag
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Araz win✓ Hit
20.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Qarabag win✗ Miss
52.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ArazAraz

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L20W12L11D21W10W01L10W11D41WH·TUR04/08H·QAB12/08A·QAR20/08H·SUM25/08A·KAP03/09H·NEF16/09A·SƏB24/09H·ZIR01/10A·SAB07/10A·QAB22/10
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.970.932.000.601.931.27
vs Stronger (1)1.002.00--1.002.00
vs Similar (22)2.180.912.000.692.441.22
vs Weaker (7)1.430.862.000.001.201.20
Clean sheet %43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QarabagQarabag

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D12L20W10W21W50W10W20W22D15LH·OLI31/08A·SƏB03/09H·SAB17/09H·MOL21/09A·QAB25/09H·SUM29/09A·BK 05/10A·NEF08/10A·TUR20/10A·BAY26/10
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.001.032.120.751.861.36
vs Stronger (1)1.005.00--1.005.00
vs Similar (6)1.331.001.330.331.331.67
vs Weaker (23)2.220.872.310.852.100.90
Clean sheet %37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.8%
Under 1.5
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.0%
Under 2.5
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.6%
Under 3.5
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.1%
No
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
0-1
11.7%
0-2
10.3%
1-2
9.5%
0-0
9.3%
1-0
6.2%
0-3
5.5%
2-1 ✓
5.5%
Araz goals ↓
Qarabag goals →
01234
09.3%12%10%5.5%2.2%
16.2%13%9.5%5.0%2.0%
23.4%5.5%4.4%2.3%0.9%
31.0%1.7%1.3%0.7%0.3%
40.2%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Araz goals (down), columns = Qarabag goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qarabag
2.31
Sabah FA
1.61
Zira
1.61
Sumqayıt
1.58
Neftchi Baku
1.56
Turan
1.33
Səbail
1.17
Araz
1.00
Kapaz
0.97
Qabala
0.72
Araz is 1.31 points worse than Qarabag in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.31).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.69
Turan
1.47
Neftchi Baku
1.42
Sabah FA
1.39
Səbail
1.39
Kapaz
1.08
Sumqayıt
1.03
Zira
0.92
Araz
0.86
Qabala
0.83
Araz is 1.83 goals worse than Qarabag in terms of goals scored per game (0.86 vs 2.69).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Zira
0.61
Qarabag
1.03
Sumqayıt
1.06
Neftchi Baku
1.11
Sabah FA
1.11
Araz
1.39
Turan
1.47
Səbail
1.67
Qabala
1.78
Kapaz
1.86
Araz is 0.36 goals worse than Qarabag in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 1.03).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ArazAraz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W01L00D20W00D01L00D00D21WH·TUR04/08H·QAB12/08A·QAR20/08H·SUM25/08A·KAP03/09H·NEF16/09A·SƏB24/09H·ZIR01/10A·SAB07/10A·QAB22/10
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.400.790.210.880.56
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (22)0.910.410.830.251.000.60
vs Weaker (7)0.710.290.500.000.800.40
Clean sheet %67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QarabagQarabag

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D12L00D00D20W40W00D00D10W13LH·OLI31/08A·SƏB03/09H·SAB17/09H·MOL21/09A·QAB25/09H·SUM29/09A·BK 05/10A·NEF08/10A·TUR20/10A·BAY26/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.400.810.250.790.57
vs Stronger (1)1.003.00--1.003.00
vs Similar (6)0.000.000.000.000.000.00
vs Weaker (23)1.000.391.000.311.000.50
Clean sheet %73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Araz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ArazAraz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L10W11D11D01L10W00D10W11D20WH·TUR04/08H·QAB12/08A·QAR20/08H·SUM25/08A·KAP03/09H·NEF16/09A·SƏB24/09H·ZIR01/10A·SAB07/10A·QAB22/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.571.140.431.000.69
vs Stronger (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
vs Similar (22)1.180.551.080.501.300.60
vs Weaker (7)0.710.571.500.000.400.80
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QarabagQarabag

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D20W10W01L10W10W20W12L02LH·OLI31/08A·SƏB03/09H·SAB17/09H·MOL21/09A·QAB25/09H·SUM29/09A·BK 05/10A·NEF08/10A·TUR20/10A·BAY26/10
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.631.310.501.070.79
vs Stronger (1)0.002.00--0.002.00
vs Similar (6)1.331.001.330.331.331.67
vs Weaker (23)1.220.481.310.541.100.40
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Araz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.4%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.572.8%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Qarabag
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Juninho Vieira50%
Yassine Benzia18%
Abdellah Zoubir18%
Leandro Andrade18%
Redon Xhixha14%
Matheus Silva12%
Nariman Akhundzade12%
Bahlul Mustafazada11%
Toral Bayramov9%
Marko Janković9%
Andrey Lunev0%
Bədavi Huseynov0%
Maksim Medvedev0%
Patrick Andrade0%
Marko Vešović0%
Kevin Medina0%
Hamidou Keyta0%
Elvin Cafarquliyev0%
Júlio Romão0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Júlio Romão56%
Kevin Medina43%
Marko Vešović33%
Redon Xhixha29%
Juninho Vieira20%
Patrick Andrade20%
Elvin Cafarquliyev20%
Toral Bayramov18%
Marko Janković18%
Matheus Silva12%
Bahlul Mustafazada11%
Andrey Lunev10%
Yassine Benzia9%
Leandro Andrade9%
Bədavi Huseynov0%
Maksim Medvedev0%
Abdellah Zoubir0%
Hamidou Keyta0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Toral Bayramov18%
Marko Vešović17%
Hamidou Keyta14%
Bədavi Huseynov11%
Juninho Vieira10%
Patrick Andrade10%
Elvin Cafarquliyev10%
Yassine Benzia9%
Abdellah Zoubir9%
Marko Janković9%
Leandro Andrade9%
Andrey Lunev0%
Maksim Medvedev0%
Redon Xhixha0%
Matheus Silva0%
Kevin Medina0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Júlio Romão0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Juninho Vieira30%
Leandro Andrade18%
Abdellah Zoubir9%
Marko Janković9%
Andrey Lunev0%
Yassine Benzia0%
Bədavi Huseynov0%
Maksim Medvedev0%
Toral Bayramov0%
Redon Xhixha0%
Matheus Silva0%
Patrick Andrade0%
Marko Vešović0%
Kevin Medina0%
Hamidou Keyta0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Elvin Cafarquliyev0%
Júlio Romão0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Araz's squad is €19m less valuable than Qarabag's (€6m vs €25m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Araz's attack is €5m less valuable than Qarabag's (€3m vs €8m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Araz's midfield is €2m less valuable than Qarabag's (€2m vs €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Araz's defence is €12m less valuable than Qarabag's (€2m vs €14m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
ARA wins
0
Draws
1
QAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Araz vs Qarabag · H/A from ARA
DateH/AGameScore
20/08/23AQarabag Vs ARA2-1

ArazAraz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/10/23AQabala Vs ARA1-4
07/10/23ASabah FA Vs ARA1-1
01/10/23HARA Vs Zira1-0
24/09/23ASəbail Vs ARA1-0
16/09/23HARA Vs Neftchi Baku1-0
03/09/23AKapaz Vs ARA1-2
25/08/23HARA Vs Sumqayıt1-1
20/08/23AQarabag Vs ARA2-1
12/08/23HARA Vs Qabala2-0
04/08/23HARA Vs Turan0-3

QarabagQarabag

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/10/23ABayer Leverkusen Vs QAR5-1
20/10/23ATuran Vs QAR2-2
08/10/23ANeftchi Baku Vs QAR0-2
05/10/23ABK Hacken Vs QAR0-1
29/09/23HQAR Vs Sumqayıt5-0
25/09/23AQabala Vs QAR1-2
21/09/23HQAR Vs Molde1-0
17/09/23HQAR Vs Sabah FA2-0
03/09/23ASəbail Vs QAR2-1
31/08/23HQAR Vs Olimpija Ljubljana1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Araz
Araz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDW2.26
HomeLWDWW2.53
AwayLWLDW2.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %71%79%63%
AVG goals3.003.003.00
Over 1.5 %84%84%84%
Over 2.5 %58%58%58%
Over 3.5 %26%37%16%
Scored2.162.421.89
Conceded0.840.581.11
BTTS47%32%63%
Clean Sheet45%63%26%
Corners---
Cards---
Qarabag
Qarabag
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDL2.14
HomeDDWWW2.12
AwayWWWDL2.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %64%60%68%
AVG goals2.842.603.08
Over 1.5 %80%80%80%
Over 2.5 %58%52%64%
Over 3.5 %32%28%36%
Scored2.021.922.12
Conceded0.820.680.96
BTTS52%56%48%
Clean Sheet44%40%48%
Corners9.3610.578.14
Cards4.935.294.57

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QarabagQarabag3683
72%
2.3
9737+60
3.7
89%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.71.0
-
2ZiraZira3658
44%
1.6
3322+11
1.5
33%
25%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6160.90.6
-
3Sabah FASabah FA3658
47%
1.6
5040+10
2.5
72%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5571.41.1
-
4SumqayıtSumqayıt3657
42%
1.6
3738-1
2.1
56%
33%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4241.01.1
-
5Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3656
44%
1.6
5140+11
2.5
69%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.41.1
-
6TuranTuran3648
36%
1.3
5353+0
2.9
83%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.51.5
-
7SəbailSəbail3642
31%
1.2
5060-10
3.1
81%
64%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.7
-
8ArazAraz3636
25%
1.0
3150-19
2.2
72%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3220.91.4
-
9KapazKapaz3635
25%
1.0
3967-28
2.9
72%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1231.11.9
-
10QabalaQabala3626
19%
0.7
3064-34
2.6
72%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1130.81.8
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Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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