This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Qarabag
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
0.90
2.50
1.33
1.72
0.61
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
3.33
0.50
3.50
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (5)
1.20
1.40
1.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (22)
2.45
0.45
3.25
0.62
2.00
0.36
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
79.5%
Under 1.5
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.2%
Under 2.5
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.8%
Under 3.5
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.0%
No
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
1-2
9.5%
0-1
8.3%
0-2
8.0%
2-1
6.7%
0-0
6.7%
2-2
5.7%
1-0 ✓
5.5%
Araz goals ↓
Qarabag goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
8.3%
8.0%
4.5%
1.9%
1
5.5%
12%
9.5%
5.4%
2.3%
2
4.0%
6.7%
5.7%
3.2%
1.4%
3
1.6%
2.7%
2.3%
1.3%
0.5%
4
0.5%
0.8%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Araz goals (down), columns = Qarabag goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Araz
2.50
Qarabag
2.17
MOIK
2.00
Neftchi Baku
2.00
Turan
2.00
Sabah FA
1.67
Səbail
1.50
Şamaxı FK
1.50
Imisli FK
1.50
Kapaz
1.50
Qabala
1.50
Mingəçevir
1.50
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.50
Safa Baku
1.00
Zira
1.00
Sumqayıt
0.67
Difai Ağsu
0.50
Baku Sportinq
0.00
Hypers Guba
0.00
Şəmkir
0.00
Ağdaş
0.00
Dinamo Bakı
0.00
Şahdağ
0.00
Cəbrayıl
0.00
Karvan
0.00
Zaqatala
0.00
Şimal
0.00
Araz is 0.33 points better than Qarabag in terms of average points per game (2.50 vs 2.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Turan
4.00
Şamaxı FK
3.50
Imisli FK
2.50
Səbail
2.25
Neftchi Baku
2.20
MOIK
2.00
Hypers Guba
2.00
Safa Baku
2.00
Qabala
2.00
Qarabag
1.83
Araz
1.83
Kapaz
1.75
Sabah FA
1.67
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.50
Şəmkir
1.00
Difai Ağsu
1.00
Cəbrayıl
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Zira
1.00
Şimal
1.00
Sumqayıt
0.33
Baku Sportinq
0.00
Ağdaş
0.00
Dinamo Bakı
0.00
Şahdağ
0.00
Karvan
0.00
Zaqatala
0.00
Araz and Qarabag are level in goals scored per game (both 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Neftchi Baku
0.60
Qarabag
0.67
Araz
0.67
Kapaz
0.75
Sabah FA
0.83
MOIK
1.00
Səbail
1.00
Imisli FK
1.00
Qabala
1.00
Zaqatala
1.00
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.00
Zira
1.33
Turan
1.50
Mingəçevir
1.50
Sumqayıt
1.67
Şamaxı FK
2.00
Safa Baku
2.00
Karvan
3.00
Şimal
3.00
Baku Sportinq
4.00
Difai Ağsu
4.00
Şahdağ
4.00
Cəbrayıl
5.00
Şəmkir
6.00
Ağdaş
6.00
Dinamo Bakı
6.00
Hypers Guba
7.00
Araz and Qarabag are level in goals conceded per game (both 0.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Araz or Draw✓ Hit
51.9%
Avg Implied -
26%
26%
48%
covers Araz + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Araz or Qarabag✓ Hit
73.8%
Avg Implied -
26%
26%
48%
covers Araz + Qarabag
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Qarabag✗ Miss
74.3%
Avg Implied -
26%
26%
48%
covers Draw + Qarabag
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Araz over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
69.7%
Under
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
33.5%
Under
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.9%
Under
88.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
81.7%
Under
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
50.6%
Under
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
24.2%
Under
75.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.3%
Under
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Araz, so a minus line means Araz give that many goals of a start and Qarabag receive them. At -1, Araz must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Araz win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Araz)Actual: Qarabag
Araz -2
3.4%
Draw -2
7.4%
Qarabag +2
89.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Araz)Actual: Draw
Araz -1
10.8%
Draw -1
14.9%
Qarabag +1
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Araz)Actual: Araz
Araz +1
51.9%
Draw +1
21.7%
Qarabag -1
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Araz)Actual: Araz
Araz +2
73.6%
Draw +2
15.0%
Qarabag -2
11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Araz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.27
0.43
0.21
0.69
0.31
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.24
0.38
0.12
0.69
0.31
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.14
0.40
0.20
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Qarabag
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.37
1.08
0.67
0.67
0.17
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.80
1.50
1.50
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (22)
0.95
0.23
1.25
0.38
0.79
0.14
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Araz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Araz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.71
0.57
0.56
0.25
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.33
0.62
0.50
0.54
0.23
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.29
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Qarabag
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.53
1.42
0.67
1.06
0.44
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.67
0.50
2.50
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.60
0.00
0.50
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (22)
1.50
0.23
2.00
0.25
1.21
0.21
Clean sheet %
73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Araz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Qarabag
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Juninho Vieira25%
Toral Bayramov10%
Abdellah Zoubir10%
Leandro Andrade10%
Yassine Benzia0%
Abbas Hüseynov0%
Bədavi Huseynov0%
Matheus Silva0%
Patrick Andrade0%
Fabijan Buntić0%
Marko Janković0%
Marko Vešović0%
Kevin Medina0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Elvin Cafarquliyev0%
Oleksiy Kashchuk0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Júlio Romão0%
Emmanuel Addai0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kevin Medina50%
Júlio Romão33%
Marko Janković25%
Patrick Andrade22%
Elvin Cafarquliyev22%
Abbas Hüseynov20%
Bədavi Huseynov20%
Marko Vešović20%
Mateusz Kochalski14%
Juninho Vieira12%
Emmanuel Addai12%
Yassine Benzia11%
Abdellah Zoubir10%
Toral Bayramov0%
Matheus Silva0%
Fabijan Buntić0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Oleksiy Kashchuk0%
Leandro Andrade0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nariman Akhundzade20%
Yassine Benzia11%
Abdellah Zoubir10%
Abbas Hüseynov0%
Bədavi Huseynov0%
Toral Bayramov0%
Juninho Vieira0%
Matheus Silva0%
Patrick Andrade0%
Fabijan Buntić0%
Marko Janković0%
Marko Vešović0%
Kevin Medina0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Elvin Cafarquliyev0%
Oleksiy Kashchuk0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Leandro Andrade0%
Júlio Romão0%
Emmanuel Addai0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Juninho Vieira75%
Yassine Benzia22%
Toral Bayramov10%
Abdellah Zoubir10%
Abbas Hüseynov0%
Bədavi Huseynov0%
Matheus Silva0%
Patrick Andrade0%
Fabijan Buntić0%
Marko Janković0%
Marko Vešović0%
Kevin Medina0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Elvin Cafarquliyev0%
Oleksiy Kashchuk0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Leandro Andrade0%
Júlio Romão0%
Emmanuel Addai0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SB (15)
€4m
ŞF (15)
€4m
SƏB (4)
€1m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
Araz's squad is €19m less valuable than Qarabag's (€6m vs €25m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
SB (5)
€1m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
Araz's attack is €5m less valuable than Qarabag's (€3m vs €8m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
SB (2)
€0m
SƏB (1)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
Araz's midfield is €2m less valuable than Qarabag's (€2m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
SB (8)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
Araz's defence is €12m less valuable than Qarabag's (€2m vs €14m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
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Zira
Turan
Sabah FA
Neftchi Baku
Şamaxı FK
Sumqayıt
Kapaz
Səbail