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Araz vs Qarabag Result & Analysis

Date: 21/09/2025
Time: 13:00
Final 0-5
Araz
Araz
Vs
16%
27%
57%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Qarabag
Qarabag
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Araz win✗ Miss
16.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Qarabag win✓ Hit
56.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ArazAraz

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W01L21W22D04L05L11D21W21W20WA·ŞAM17/05H·ZIR25/05H·ARI24/07A·ARI31/07H·OMO07/08A·OMO14/08A·ZIR19/08A·TUR24/08H·QAB30/08A·KAP12/09
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.131.001.000.881.25
vs Stronger (4)0.502.001.001.500.002.50
vs Similar (21)1.101.191.201.101.001.27
vs Weaker (5)0.600.200.000.001.000.33
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QarabagQarabag

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-530W10W10W51W31W01L23L20W11D32WA·SHE23/07H·SHE30/07A·SHK05/08H·SHK12/08A·FER19/08H·SUM22/08H·FER27/08A·KAR31/08H·ZIR12/09A·BEN16/09
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.100.602.270.671.930.53
vs Stronger (1)3.002.00--3.002.00
vs Similar (5)1.801.601.672.002.001.00
vs Weaker (24)2.120.332.420.331.830.33
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%11%020%127%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.4%
Under 1.5
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.9%
Under 2.5
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
21.2%
Under 3.5
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.4%
No
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
14.1%
1-1
12.6%
0-2
12.2%
0-0
10.6%
1-2
9.2%
0-3
6.5%
1-0
6.0%
1-3
4.9%
Araz goals ↓
Qarabag goals →
01234
011%14%12%6.5%2.6%
16.0%13%9.2%4.9%2.0%
22.7%4.3%3.4%1.8%0.7%
30.7%1.1%0.9%0.5%0.2%
40.1%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Araz goals (down), columns = Qarabag goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Karvan
0.45
Mingəçevir
0.00
Araz is 0.70 points worse than Qarabag in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 2.09).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Karvan
0.70
Mingəçevir
0.00
Araz is 0.82 goals worse than Qarabag in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 2.15).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Turan
0.82
Qarabag
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Mingəçevir
2.00
Karvan
2.00
Araz is 0.94 goals worse than Qarabag in terms of goals conceded per game (1.76 vs 0.82).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ArazAraz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W00D00D20W02L04L01L10W21W00DA·ŞAM17/05H·ZIR25/05H·ARI24/07A·ARI31/07H·OMO07/08A·OMO14/08A·ZIR19/08A·TUR24/08H·QAB30/08A·KAP12/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.500.570.430.560.56
vs Stronger (4)0.500.501.000.500.000.50
vs Similar (21)0.670.620.600.500.730.73
vs Weaker (5)0.200.000.000.000.330.00
Clean sheet %63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QarabagQarabag

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W10W10W41W01L00D21W10W01L12LA·SHE23/07H·SHE30/07A·SHK05/08H·SHK12/08A·FER19/08H·SUM22/08H·FER27/08A·KAR31/08H·ZIR12/09A·BEN16/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.401.130.400.870.40
vs Stronger (1)1.002.00--1.002.00
vs Similar (5)1.000.801.331.000.500.50
vs Weaker (24)1.000.251.080.250.920.25
Clean sheet %63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Araz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ArazAraz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L21W02L02L01L10W11D00D20WA·ŞAM17/05H·ZIR25/05H·ARI24/07A·ARI31/07H·OMO07/08A·OMO14/08A·ZIR19/08A·TUR24/08H·QAB30/08A·KAP12/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.630.430.570.310.69
vs Stronger (4)0.001.500.001.000.002.00
vs Similar (21)0.430.570.600.600.270.55
vs Weaker (5)0.400.200.000.000.670.33
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QarabagQarabag

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W00D00D10W30W01L02L10W10W20WA·SHE23/07H·SHE30/07A·SHK05/08H·SHK12/08A·FER19/08H·SUM22/08H·FER27/08A·KAR31/08H·ZIR12/09A·BEN16/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.201.130.271.070.13
vs Stronger (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
vs Similar (5)0.800.800.331.001.500.50
vs Weaker (24)1.120.081.330.080.920.08
Clean sheet %83% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Araz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.578.8%-------✗ Miss

🎽 13. Player market rates

Qarabag
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Camilo Durán40%
Leandro Andrade36%
Marko Janković18%
Abdellah Zoubir17%
Elvin Jafarguliyev17%
Musa Qurbanlı12%
Oleksiy Kashchuk11%
Bahlul Mustafazada9%
Matheus Silva8%
Kevin Medina8%
Emmanuel Addai8%
Toral Bayramov0%
Kady Borges0%
Joni Montiel0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Pedro Bicalho0%
Dani Bolt0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Matheus Silva33%
Kevin Medina25%
Marko Janković18%
Pedro Bicalho17%
Nariman Akhundzade12%
Toral Bayramov11%
Camilo Durán10%
Abdellah Zoubir0%
Kady Borges0%
Joni Montiel0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Elvin Jafarguliyev0%
Oleksiy Kashchuk0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Musa Qurbanlı0%
Leandro Andrade0%
Dani Bolt0%
Emmanuel Addai0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nariman Akhundzade25%
Joni Montiel20%
Marko Janković18%
Leandro Andrade18%
Abdellah Zoubir17%
Kady Borges12%
Camilo Durán10%
Bahlul Mustafazada9%
Matheus Silva8%
Elvin Jafarguliyev8%
Toral Bayramov0%
Kevin Medina0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Oleksiy Kashchuk0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Musa Qurbanlı0%
Pedro Bicalho0%
Dani Bolt0%
Emmanuel Addai0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Camilo Durán20%
Abdellah Zoubir17%
Emmanuel Addai8%
Toral Bayramov0%
Kady Borges0%
Matheus Silva0%
Marko Janković0%
Kevin Medina0%
Joni Montiel0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Elvin Jafarguliyev0%
Oleksiy Kashchuk0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Musa Qurbanlı0%
Leandro Andrade0%
Pedro Bicalho0%
Dani Bolt0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
Araz's squad is €19m less valuable than Qarabag's (€6m vs €25m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
Araz's attack is €5m less valuable than Qarabag's (€3m vs €8m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
Araz's midfield is €2m less valuable than Qarabag's (€2m vs €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
Araz's defence is €12m less valuable than Qarabag's (€2m vs €14m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
ARA wins
1
Draws
6
QAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Araz vs Qarabag · H/A from ARA
DateH/AGameScore
11/05/25AQarabag Vs ARA2-0
23/04/25AQarabag Vs ARA3-0
02/04/25HARA Vs Qarabag1-0
08/03/25HARA Vs Qarabag1-3
22/12/24AQarabag Vs ARA2-0
02/08/24HARA Vs Qarabag1-4
26/05/24HARA Vs Qarabag2-2
23/01/24AQarabag Vs ARA3-1

ArazAraz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/09/25AKapaz Vs ARA0-2
30/08/25HARA Vs Qabala2-1
24/08/25ATuran Vs ARA1-2
19/08/25AZira Vs ARA1-1
14/08/25AOmonia Nicosia Vs ARA5-0
07/08/25HARA Vs Omonia Nicosia0-4
31/07/25AAris Thessalonikis Vs ARA2-2
24/07/25HARA Vs Aris Thessalonikis2-1
25/05/25HARA Vs Zira0-1
17/05/25AŞamaxı FK Vs ARA0-1

QarabagQarabag

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/09/25ABenfica Vs QAR2-3
12/09/25HQAR Vs Zira1-1
31/08/25AKarvan Vs QAR0-2
27/08/25HQAR Vs Ferencvarosi TC2-3
22/08/25HQAR Vs Sumqayıt0-1
19/08/25AFerencvarosi TC Vs QAR1-3
12/08/25HQAR Vs Shkendija5-1
05/08/25AShkendija Vs QAR0-1
30/07/25HQAR Vs Shelbourne1-0
23/07/25AShelbourne Vs QAR0-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Araz
Araz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWWW1.74
HomeDLWLW1.79
AwayDLDWW1.69
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%50%46%
AVG goals2.082.122.04
Over 1.5 %62%58%65%
Over 2.5 %30%33%27%
Over 3.5 %18%21%15%
Scored1.121.121.12
Conceded0.961.000.92
BTTS40%50%31%
Clean Sheet42%38%46%
Corners---
Cards---
Qarabag
Qarabag
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDW2.12
HomeWWLLD2.00
AwayWWWWW2.23
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %66%62%69%
AVG goals2.883.292.50
Over 1.5 %76%88%65%
Over 2.5 %56%67%46%
Over 3.5 %34%42%27%
Scored2.062.291.85
Conceded0.821.000.65
BTTS38%42%35%
Clean Sheet52%50%54%
Corners8.226.759.40
Cards4.885.754.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Sabah FASabah FA3378
73%
2.4
7525+50
3.0
76%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5572.30.8
-
2QarabagQarabag3369
64%
2.1
7127+44
3.0
76%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.20.8
-
3Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3359
48%
1.8
5732+25
2.7
73%
55%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.71.0
-
4TuranTuran3359
52%
1.8
4427+17
2.2
67%
45%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.30.8
-
5ZiraZira3353
39%
1.6
4336+7
2.4
70%
42%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.31.1
-
6ArazAraz3346
39%
1.4
4458-14
3.1
88%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3221.31.8
-
7SumqayıtSumqayıt3238
34%
1.2
4249-7
2.8
78%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4241.31.5
-
8Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3338
27%
1.2
3140-9
2.2
67%
45%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.91.2
-
9Imisli FKImisli FK3234
22%
1.1
2340-17
2.0
53%
31%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3130.71.2
-
10QabalaQabala3430
24%
0.9
3449-15
2.4
68%
41%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1131.01.4
-
11KapazKapaz3327
24%
0.8
2561-36
2.6
76%
45%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1230.81.8
-
12KarvanKarvan3315
9%
0.5
2366-43
2.7
82%
48%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.72.0
-
13MingəçevirMingəçevir10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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