Araz’s defensive solidity is highlighted by a low 0.56 average goals conceded at home against similarly ranked opponents, while Sabah FA’s away form shows a higher 1.17 conceded. The model projects a tight, low-scoring encounter with an expected 2.2 goals and a 2-goal total probability of 28%. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.7% chance. Home win is the favoured result at 35%, draw 32%, and away win 33%. Araz’s home scoring average of 1.11 and Sabah’s away scoring of 1.33 suggest a balanced contest. The single suggested pick is Under 3.5, with an 81.2% probability. In recent form, Araz is coming off two straight defeats, whereas Sabah FA is on a two-game winning run. The match is poised to stay close, with both teams capable of scoring but likely limited to a single goal each.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Araz, failed to deliver, as the game finished 1-1, a draw that left the model’s home-win call wrong. The model had assigned a 35% chance to a home win, 32% to a draw and 33% to an away win, but the match settled on a level score. Araz’s recent form, after two straight defeats, was a shaky start, while Sabah FA, on a two-game winning run, had been in better shape. The model’s sole other selection, Under 3.5 goals, hit its mark with an 81.2% probability, confirming the low-scoring nature of the encounter.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Araz win✗ Miss
35.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
31.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA win✗ Miss
33.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Araz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.67
1.07
0.64
1.06
0.69
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.50
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (19)
1.16
0.53
1.11
0.56
1.20
0.50
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.29
1.00
0.33
1.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sabah FA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.17
1.07
0.93
1.31
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.15
1.08
1.00
1.00
1.33
1.17
vs Weaker (17)
1.24
1.24
1.14
0.86
1.30
1.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.7%
Under 1.5
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.7%
Under 2.5
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.8%
Under 3.5
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.6%
No
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.7%
0-0
12.0%
1-0
10.8%
0-1
10.5%
2-1
7.6%
1-2
7.4%
2-0
6.9%
0-2
6.5%
Araz goals ↓
Sabah FA goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
10%
6.5%
2.4%
0.7%
1
11%
15%
7.4%
2.7%
0.7%
2
6.9%
7.6%
4.2%
1.5%
0.4%
3
2.6%
2.9%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.7%
0.8%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Araz goals (down), columns = Sabah FA goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Qarabag
2.47
Zira
2.06
Araz
1.61
Turan
1.53
Sabah FA
1.33
Neftchi Baku
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.00
Sumqayıt
0.92
Kapaz
0.89
Səbail
0.61
Araz is 0.28 points better than Sabah FA in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.39
Zira
1.64
Sabah FA
1.39
Turan
1.25
Neftchi Baku
1.08
Araz
0.94
Şamaxı FK
0.89
Sumqayıt
0.86
Səbail
0.78
Kapaz
0.78
Araz is 0.44 goals worse than Sabah FA in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 1.39).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Qarabag
0.53
Zira
0.75
Araz
0.81
Turan
1.08
Sabah FA
1.28
Şamaxı FK
1.28
Neftchi Baku
1.36
Sumqayıt
1.47
Səbail
1.64
Kapaz
1.81
Araz is 0.47 goals better than Sabah FA in terms of goals conceded per game (0.81 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Araz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.23
0.50
0.21
0.62
0.25
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.26
0.33
0.22
0.70
0.30
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.75
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sabah FA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
0.50
0.50
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.69
0.57
0.57
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (17)
0.53
0.47
0.43
0.43
0.60
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Araz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Araz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.43
0.57
0.43
0.44
0.44
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.26
0.78
0.33
0.50
0.20
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.29
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sabah FA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.57
0.43
0.69
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.38
0.43
0.43
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (17)
0.71
0.76
0.71
0.43
0.70
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Araz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sabah FA · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Veljko Simić75%
Joy Lance Mickels50%
Christian Nwachukwu33%
Steve Solvet25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Xander Severina25%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev25%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Aleksey Isayev0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Veljko Simić25%
Ivan Lepinjica25%
Joy Lance Mickels25%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Aleksey Isayev0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Xander Severina0%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev0%
Christian Nwachukwu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tymoteusz Puchacz50%
Aleksey Isayev50%
Akim Zedadka25%
Joy Lance Mickels25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev25%
Veljko Simić0%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Xander Severina0%
Christian Nwachukwu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joy Lance Mickels50%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev50%
Christian Nwachukwu33%
Aleksey Isayev25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Xander Severina25%
Veljko Simić0%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Araz's squad is €11m less valuable than Sabah FA's (€6m vs €17m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Araz's attack is €2m less valuable than Sabah FA's (€3m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Araz's midfield is €4m less valuable than Sabah FA's (€2m vs €5m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Araz's defence is €5m less valuable than Sabah FA's (€2m vs €7m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Qarabag
Zira
Turan
Neftchi Baku
Şamaxı FK
Sumqayıt
Kapaz
Səbail