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Araz vs Sumqayıt Result & Analysis

Date: 28/01/2024
Time: 11:00
Final 1-1
Araz
Araz
Vs
45%
30%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Sumqayıt
Sumqayıt
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Araz win✗ Miss
45.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
30.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt win✗ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ArazAraz

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W21W02L01L11D11D00D20W13L13LA·QAB22/10H·QAR30/10A·SUM04/11H·KAP10/11A·NEF26/11H·SƏB02/12A·ZIR09/12H·SAB15/12A·TUR24/12A·QAR23/01
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.071.600.531.671.60
vs Stronger (3)1.332.002.001.001.002.50
vs Similar (20)1.751.051.700.501.801.60
vs Weaker (7)1.430.711.250.501.671.00
Clean sheet %37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-610W00D20W21W00D22D16L11D10W10WH·SAB25/10H·QAB29/10H·ARA04/11A·NEF11/11H·ZIR26/11A·TUR02/12H·QAR08/12A·KAP14/12H·SƏB23/12A·QAB23/01
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.770.602.001.331.53
vs Stronger (14)0.502.790.253.000.832.50
vs Similar (16)1.380.881.000.861.670.89
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%220%312%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.4%
Under 1.5
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.7%
Under 2.5
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.3%
Under 3.5
79.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.8%
No
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.1%
1-0
12.3%
0-0
11.2%
2-0
9.3%
2-1
8.7%
0-1
8.1%
1-2
6.0%
0-2
4.4%
Araz goals ↓
Sumqayıt goals →
01234
011%8.1%4.4%1.4%0.3%
112%14%6.0%1.9%0.4%
29.3%8.7%4.1%1.3%0.3%
34.2%4.0%1.9%0.6%0.1%
41.4%1.4%0.6%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Araz goals (down), columns = Sumqayıt goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qarabag
2.31
Sabah FA
1.61
Zira
1.61
Sumqayıt
1.58
Neftchi Baku
1.56
Turan
1.33
Səbail
1.17
Araz
1.00
Kapaz
0.97
Qabala
0.72
Araz is 0.58 points worse than Sumqayıt in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.58).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.69
Turan
1.47
Neftchi Baku
1.42
Sabah FA
1.39
Səbail
1.39
Kapaz
1.08
Sumqayıt
1.03
Zira
0.92
Araz
0.86
Qabala
0.83
Araz is 0.17 goals worse than Sumqayıt in terms of goals scored per game (0.86 vs 1.03).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Zira
0.61
Qarabag
1.03
Sumqayıt
1.06
Neftchi Baku
1.11
Sabah FA
1.11
Araz
1.39
Turan
1.47
Səbail
1.67
Qabala
1.78
Kapaz
1.86
Araz is 0.33 goals worse than Sumqayıt in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 1.06).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ArazAraz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W00D01L00D01L10W00D10W02L02LA·QAB22/10H·QAR30/10A·SUM04/11H·KAP10/11A·NEF26/11H·SƏB02/12A·ZIR09/12H·SAB15/12A·TUR24/12A·QAR23/01
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.470.430.070.810.81
vs Stronger (3)0.001.000.000.000.001.50
vs Similar (20)0.700.500.440.110.910.82
vs Weaker (7)0.710.140.500.001.000.33
Clean sheet %67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D10W01L00D20W13L11D00D00DH·SAB25/10H·QAB29/10H·ARA04/11A·NEF11/11H·ZIR26/11A·TUR02/12H·QAR08/12A·KAP14/12H·SƏB23/12A·QAB23/01
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.730.270.800.670.67
vs Stronger (14)0.361.360.251.500.501.17
vs Similar (16)0.560.190.290.000.780.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Araz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ArazAraz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W21W01L01L10W01L00D10W11D11DA·QAB22/10H·QAR30/10A·SUM04/11H·KAP10/11A·NEF26/11H·SƏB02/12A·ZIR09/12H·SAB15/12A·TUR24/12A·QAR23/01
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.601.070.500.880.69
vs Stronger (3)1.331.002.001.001.001.00
vs Similar (20)1.000.551.110.440.910.64
vs Weaker (7)0.710.570.750.500.670.67
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D10W20W00D02L03L00D10W10WH·SAB25/10H·QAB29/10H·ARA04/11A·NEF11/11H·ZIR26/11A·TUR02/12H·QAR08/12A·KAP14/12H·SƏB23/12A·QAB23/01
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.030.331.200.670.87
vs Stronger (14)0.141.430.001.500.331.33
vs Similar (16)0.810.690.710.860.890.56
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Araz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.579.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Araz's squad is €3m less valuable than Sumqayıt's (€6m vs €9m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Araz and Sumqayıt have a similar attack value (both €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Araz and Sumqayıt have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Araz's defence is €2m less valuable than Sumqayıt's (€2m vs €4m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
ARA wins
1
Draws
1
SUM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Araz vs Sumqayıt · H/A from ARA
DateH/AGameScore
04/11/23ASumqayıt Vs ARA2-0
25/08/23HARA Vs Sumqayıt1-1

ArazAraz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/01/24AQarabag Vs ARA3-1
24/12/23ATuran Vs ARA3-1
15/12/23HARA Vs Sabah FA2-0
09/12/23AZira Vs ARA0-0
02/12/23HARA Vs Səbail1-1
26/11/23ANeftchi Baku Vs ARA1-1
10/11/23HARA Vs Kapaz0-1
04/11/23ASumqayıt Vs ARA2-0
30/10/23HARA Vs Qarabag2-1
22/10/23AQabala Vs ARA1-4

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/01/24AQabala Vs SUM0-1
23/12/23HSUM Vs Səbail1-0
14/12/23AKapaz Vs SUM1-1
08/12/23HSUM Vs Qarabag1-6
02/12/23ATuran Vs SUM2-2
26/11/23HSUM Vs Zira0-0
11/11/23ANeftchi Baku Vs SUM1-2
04/11/23HSUM Vs Araz2-0
29/10/23HSUM Vs Qabala0-0
25/10/23HSUM Vs Sabah FA1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Araz
Araz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWLL2.02
HomeWWLDW2.39
AwayLDDLL1.67
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %62%74%50%
AVG goals2.852.832.88
Over 1.5 %83%83%83%
Over 2.5 %53%52%54%
Over 3.5 %26%30%21%
Scored1.912.221.62
Conceded0.940.611.25
BTTS49%35%62%
Clean Sheet40%57%25%
Corners---
Cards---
Sumqayıt
Sumqayıt
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 5 Wins / 4 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDWW1.18
HomeDWDLW1.12
AwayLWDDW1.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%28%36%
AVG goals2.622.562.68
Over 1.5 %64%64%64%
Over 2.5 %48%44%52%
Over 3.5 %34%32%36%
Scored0.920.761.08
Conceded1.701.801.60
BTTS42%32%52%
Clean Sheet30%40%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QarabagQarabag3683
72%
2.3
9737+60
3.7
89%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.71.0
-
2ZiraZira3658
44%
1.6
3322+11
1.5
33%
25%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6160.90.6
-
3Sabah FASabah FA3658
47%
1.6
5040+10
2.5
72%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5571.41.1
-
4SumqayıtSumqayıt3657
42%
1.6
3738-1
2.1
56%
33%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4241.01.1
-
5Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3656
44%
1.6
5140+11
2.5
69%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.41.1
-
6TuranTuran3648
36%
1.3
5353+0
2.9
83%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.51.5
-
7SəbailSəbail3642
31%
1.2
5060-10
3.1
81%
64%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.7
-
8ArazAraz3636
25%
1.0
3150-19
2.2
72%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3220.91.4
-
9KapazKapaz3635
25%
1.0
3967-28
2.9
72%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1231.11.9
-
10QabalaQabala3626
19%
0.7
3064-34
2.6
72%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1130.81.8
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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