PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Araz vs Sumqayıt Result & Analysis

Date: 15/02/2026
Time: 13:00
Final 1-0
Araz
Araz
Vs
33%
31%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Sumqayıt
Sumqayıt
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Araz win✓ Hit
33.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt win✗ Miss
36.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ArazAraz

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W11D12L00D20W15L20W22D04L14LH·KAR08/11H·TUR22/11A·QAB30/11H·KAP04/12H·KAP09/12A·QAR14/12H·ŞAM21/12A·IMI23/01H·NEF01/02A·SAB08/02
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.831.141.501.192.12
vs Stronger (4)0.253.750.005.000.333.33
vs Similar (21)1.291.811.201.501.362.09
vs Weaker (5)1.400.401.330.331.500.50
Clean sheet %20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-424L21W31W10W22D13L12L20W00D23LH·QAR21/11A·ŞAM30/11A·DIF04/12H·IMI09/12A·NEF15/12H·SAB22/12A·TUR25/01A·KAR30/01H·ZIR04/02H·ZIR08/02
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.471.531.801.471.13
vs Stronger (13)1.152.001.432.430.831.50
vs Similar (16)1.691.121.621.251.751.00
vs Weaker (1)3.000.00--3.000.00
Clean sheet %23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
69.7%
Under 1.5
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.1%
Under 2.5
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.4%
Under 3.5
78.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.4%
No
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-0
10.7%
0-1
10.0%
1-0 ✓
9.6%
1-2
7.9%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
6.9%
2-0
6.3%
Araz goals ↓
Sumqayıt goals →
01234
011%10%6.9%2.8%0.8%
19.6%14%7.9%3.2%1.0%
26.3%7.6%4.6%1.8%0.6%
32.4%2.9%1.8%0.7%0.2%
40.7%0.8%0.5%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Araz goals (down), columns = Sumqayıt goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Karvan
0.45
Mingəçevir
0.00
Araz is 0.21 points better than Sumqayıt in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.19).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Karvan
0.70
Mingəçevir
0.00
Araz is 0.02 goals better than Sumqayıt in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.31).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Turan
0.82
Qarabag
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Mingəçevir
2.00
Karvan
2.00
Araz is 0.23 goals worse than Sumqayıt in terms of goals conceded per game (1.76 vs 1.53).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ArazAraz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W11D00D10W02L00D11D02L03LH·KAR08/11H·TUR22/11A·QAB30/11H·KAP04/12H·KAP09/12A·QAR14/12H·ŞAM21/12A·IMI23/01H·NEF01/02A·SAB08/02
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.830.430.640.561.00
vs Stronger (4)0.001.250.002.000.001.00
vs Similar (21)0.620.900.500.600.731.18
vs Weaker (5)0.400.200.330.330.500.00
Clean sheet %47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L00D10W00D01L01L01L20W00D12LH·QAR21/11A·ŞAM30/11A·DIF04/12H·IMI09/12A·NEF15/12H·SAB22/12A·TUR25/01A·KAR30/01H·ZIR04/02H·ZIR08/02
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.630.670.670.470.60
vs Stronger (13)0.380.850.570.860.170.83
vs Similar (16)0.620.500.750.500.500.50
vs Weaker (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
Clean sheet %47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Araz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ArazAraz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L01L00D10W13L20W11D02L11DH·KAR08/11H·TUR22/11A·QAB30/11H·KAP04/12H·KAP09/12A·QAR14/12H·ŞAM21/12A·IMI23/01H·NEF01/02A·SAB08/02
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.000.710.860.621.12
vs Stronger (4)0.252.500.003.000.332.33
vs Similar (21)0.670.900.700.900.640.91
vs Weaker (5)1.000.201.000.001.000.50
Clean sheet %37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L21W21W10W21W12L11D00D00D11DH·QAR21/11A·ŞAM30/11A·DIF04/12H·IMI09/12A·NEF15/12H·SAB22/12A·TUR25/01A·KAR30/01H·ZIR04/02H·ZIR08/02
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.830.871.131.000.53
vs Stronger (13)0.771.150.861.570.670.67
vs Similar (16)1.060.620.880.751.250.50
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Araz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.578.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
Araz's squad is €3m less valuable than Sumqayıt's (€6m vs €9m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
Araz and Sumqayıt have a similar attack value (both €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
Araz and Sumqayıt have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
Araz's defence is €2m less valuable than Sumqayıt's (€2m vs €4m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
ARA wins
2
Draws
3
SUM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Araz vs Sumqayıt · H/A from ARA
DateH/AGameScore
02/11/25ASumqayıt Vs ARA3-2
07/04/25HARA Vs Sumqayıt2-0
01/02/25ASumqayıt Vs ARA0-0
10/11/24HARA Vs Sumqayıt1-0
30/08/24ASumqayıt Vs ARA0-1
31/03/24ASumqayıt Vs ARA1-0
28/01/24HARA Vs Sumqayıt1-1
04/11/23ASumqayıt Vs ARA2-0

ArazAraz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/02/26ASabah FA Vs ARA4-1
01/02/26HARA Vs Neftchi Baku0-4
23/01/26AImisli FK Vs ARA2-2
21/12/25HARA Vs Şamaxı FK2-0
14/12/25AQarabag Vs ARA5-1
09/12/25HARA Vs Kapaz2-0
04/12/25HARA Vs Kapaz0-0
30/11/25AQabala Vs ARA2-1
22/11/25HARA Vs Turan1-1
08/11/25HARA Vs Karvan2-1

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/02/26HSUM Vs Zira2-3
04/02/26HSUM Vs Zira0-0
30/01/26AKarvan Vs SUM0-2
25/01/26ATuran Vs SUM2-1
22/12/25HSUM Vs Sabah FA1-3
15/12/25ANeftchi Baku Vs SUM2-2
09/12/25HSUM Vs Imisli FK1-0
04/12/25ADifai Ağsu Vs SUM1-3
30/11/25AŞamaxı FK Vs SUM1-2
21/11/25HSUM Vs Qarabag2-4

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Araz
Araz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDLL1.32
HomeDDWWL1.64
AwayLLLDL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%44%20%
AVG goals2.482.282.68
Over 1.5 %76%72%80%
Over 2.5 %42%40%44%
Over 3.5 %28%24%32%
Scored1.081.121.04
Conceded1.401.161.64
BTTS48%44%52%
Clean Sheet30%36%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Sumqayıt
Sumqayıt
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDL1.24
HomeLWLDL1.20
AwayWWDLW1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%32%36%
AVG goals2.562.882.24
Over 1.5 %70%80%60%
Over 2.5 %48%56%40%
Over 3.5 %28%32%24%
Scored1.161.281.04
Conceded1.401.601.20
BTTS40%44%36%
Clean Sheet30%28%32%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Sabah FASabah FA3378
73%
2.4
7525+50
3.0
76%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5572.30.8
-
2QarabagQarabag3369
64%
2.1
7127+44
3.0
76%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.20.8
-
3Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3359
48%
1.8
5732+25
2.7
73%
55%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.71.0
-
4TuranTuran3359
52%
1.8
4427+17
2.2
67%
45%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.30.8
-
5ZiraZira3353
39%
1.6
4336+7
2.4
70%
42%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.31.1
-
6ArazAraz3346
39%
1.4
4458-14
3.1
88%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3221.31.8
-
7SumqayıtSumqayıt3238
34%
1.2
4249-7
2.8
78%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4241.31.5
-
8Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3338
27%
1.2
3140-9
2.2
67%
45%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.91.2
-
9Imisli FKImisli FK3234
22%
1.1
2340-17
2.0
53%
31%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3130.71.2
-
10QabalaQabala3430
24%
0.9
3449-15
2.4
68%
41%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1131.01.4
-
11KapazKapaz3327
24%
0.8
2561-36
2.6
76%
45%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1230.81.8
-
12KarvanKarvan3315
9%
0.5
2366-43
2.7
82%
48%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.72.0
-
13MingəçevirMingəçevir10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

← all matches