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Araz vs Turan Result & Analysis

Date: 17/04/2026
Time: 13:00
Final 0-3
Araz
Araz
Vs
24%
32%
45%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Turan
Turan
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Araz win✗ Miss
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Turan win✓ Hit
44.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ArazAraz

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-604L14L10W20W01L06L21W10W24L12LH·NEF01/02A·SAB08/02H·SUM15/02A·KAR21/02H·ZIR27/02A·QAR08/03H·KAR13/03A·ŞAM18/03H·SAB07/04A·NEF11/04
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.931.201.601.272.27
vs Stronger (3)0.335.330.005.000.505.50
vs Similar (21)1.241.901.201.701.272.09
vs Weaker (6)1.670.331.500.502.000.00
Clean sheet %27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TuranTuran

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W30W00D20W10W11D32W02L11D21WH·ZIR20/02A·QAB24/02H·IMI01/03A·KAP05/03A·NEF09/03A·KAP15/03H·QAB21/03H·ZIR03/04A·IMI07/04H·SUM12/04
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.430.671.360.861.500.50
vs Stronger (4)0.502.001.002.500.001.50
vs Similar (18)1.330.561.330.781.330.33
vs Weaker (8)2.120.251.670.002.400.40
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%023%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
63.5%
Under 1.5
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
35.2%
Under 2.5
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.2%
Under 3.5
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
42.2%
No
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
0-1
14.1%
0-0
13.5%
0-2
9.7%
1-0
9.0%
1-2
8.2%
2-1
5.5%
2-0
4.3%
Araz goals ↓
Turan goals →
01234
013%14%9.7%4.1%1.3%
19.0%14%8.2%3.4%1.1%
24.3%5.5%3.5%1.5%0.5%
31.2%1.5%1.0%0.4%0.1%
40.3%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Araz goals (down), columns = Turan goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Karvan
0.45
Mingəçevir
0.00
Araz is 0.39 points worse than Turan in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.79).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Karvan
0.70
Mingəçevir
0.00
Araz and Turan are level in goals scored per game (both 1.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Turan
0.82
Qarabag
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Mingəçevir
2.00
Karvan
2.00
Araz is 0.94 goals worse than Turan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.76 vs 0.82).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ArazAraz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L03L10W10W00D03L20W00D22D01LH·NEF01/02A·SAB08/02H·SUM15/02A·KAR21/02H·ZIR27/02A·QAR08/03H·KAR13/03A·ŞAM18/03H·SAB07/04A·NEF11/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.970.670.670.401.27
vs Stronger (3)0.002.330.002.000.002.50
vs Similar (21)0.571.000.700.700.451.27
vs Weaker (6)0.670.170.750.250.500.00
Clean sheet %43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TuranTuran

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W20W00D10W00D00D11D00D01L10WH·ZIR20/02A·QAB24/02H·IMI01/03A·KAP05/03A·NEF09/03A·KAP15/03H·QAB21/03H·ZIR03/04A·IMI07/04H·SUM12/04
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.200.710.210.620.19
vs Stronger (4)0.250.500.500.500.000.50
vs Similar (18)0.610.220.670.220.560.22
vs Weaker (8)1.000.001.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %80% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Araz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ArazAraz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L11D00D10W01L03L01L10W02L11DH·NEF01/02A·SAB08/02H·SUM15/02A·KAR21/02H·ZIR27/02A·QAR08/03H·KAR13/03A·ŞAM18/03H·SAB07/04A·NEF11/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.970.530.930.871.00
vs Stronger (3)0.333.000.003.000.503.00
vs Similar (21)0.670.900.501.000.820.82
vs Weaker (6)1.000.170.750.251.500.00
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TuranTuran

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W00D10W10W11D21W02L10W11DH·ZIR20/02A·QAB24/02H·IMI01/03A·KAP05/03A·NEF09/03A·KAP15/03H·QAB21/03H·ZIR03/04A·IMI07/04H·SUM12/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.470.640.640.880.31
vs Stronger (4)0.251.500.502.000.001.00
vs Similar (18)0.720.330.670.560.780.11
vs Weaker (8)1.120.250.670.001.400.40
Clean sheet %67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Araz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.583.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
Araz's squad is €4m less valuable than Turan's (€6m vs €10m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
Araz and Turan have a similar attack value (both €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
Araz and Turan have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
Araz's defence is €3m less valuable than Turan's (€2m vs €5m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
ARA wins
2
Draws
3
TUR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Araz vs Turan · H/A from ARA
DateH/AGameScore
22/11/25HARA Vs Turan1-1
24/08/25ATuran Vs ARA1-2
18/04/25HARA Vs Turan1-1
16/02/25ATuran Vs ARA1-0
29/11/24HARA Vs Turan1-0
21/09/24ATuran Vs ARA1-2
11/05/24HARA Vs Turan0-1
10/03/24ATuran Vs ARA2-0

ArazAraz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/26ANeftchi Baku Vs ARA2-1
07/04/26HARA Vs Sabah FA2-4
18/03/26AŞamaxı FK Vs ARA0-1
13/03/26HARA Vs Karvan2-1
08/03/26AQarabag Vs ARA6-0
27/02/26HARA Vs Zira0-1
21/02/26AKarvan Vs ARA0-2
15/02/26HARA Vs Sumqayıt1-0
08/02/26ASabah FA Vs ARA4-1
01/02/26HARA Vs Neftchi Baku0-4

TuranTuran

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/04/26HTUR Vs Sumqayıt2-1
07/04/26AImisli FK Vs TUR1-1
03/04/26HTUR Vs Zira0-2
21/03/26HTUR Vs Qabala3-2
15/03/26AKapaz Vs TUR1-1
09/03/26ANeftchi Baku Vs TUR0-1
05/03/26AKapaz Vs TUR0-2
01/03/26HTUR Vs Imisli FK0-0
24/02/26AQabala Vs TUR0-3
20/02/26HTUR Vs Zira2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Araz
Araz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 4 Wins / 0 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLL1.30
HomeLWLWL1.52
AwayLWLWL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%40%24%
AVG goals2.662.362.96
Over 1.5 %78%72%84%
Over 2.5 %46%40%52%
Over 3.5 %30%24%36%
Scored1.101.081.12
Conceded1.561.281.84
BTTS50%44%56%
Clean Sheet30%36%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Turan
Turan
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLDW1.74
HomeWDWLW1.67
AwayWWWDD1.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%50%50%
AVG goals2.242.462.04
Over 1.5 %68%75%62%
Over 2.5 %42%54%31%
Over 3.5 %12%17%8%
Scored1.321.331.31
Conceded0.921.120.73
BTTS46%54%38%
Clean Sheet44%38%50%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Sabah FASabah FA3378
73%
2.4
7525+50
3.0
76%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5572.30.8
-
2QarabagQarabag3369
64%
2.1
7127+44
3.0
76%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.20.8
-
3Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3359
48%
1.8
5732+25
2.7
73%
55%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.71.0
-
4TuranTuran3359
52%
1.8
4427+17
2.2
67%
45%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.30.8
-
5ZiraZira3353
39%
1.6
4336+7
2.4
70%
42%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.31.1
-
6ArazAraz3346
39%
1.4
4458-14
3.1
88%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3221.31.8
-
7SumqayıtSumqayıt3238
34%
1.2
4249-7
2.8
78%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4241.31.5
-
8Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3338
27%
1.2
3140-9
2.2
67%
45%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.91.2
-
9Imisli FKImisli FK3234
22%
1.1
2340-17
2.0
53%
31%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3130.71.2
-
10QabalaQabala3430
24%
0.9
3449-15
2.4
68%
41%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1131.01.4
-
11KapazKapaz3327
24%
0.8
2561-36
2.6
76%
45%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1230.81.8
-
12KarvanKarvan3315
9%
0.5
2366-43
2.7
82%
48%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.72.0
-
13MingəçevirMingəçevir10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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