The model favours an away win, with Turan holding a 46 % chance, a 30 % draw probability, and Araz a 24 % chance of triumph. The match is expected to see roughly 2.3 goals, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 28 % probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which the model assigns a 14.1 % chance.
Araz, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.27 conceded. Turan, on the road, averages 1.75 goals scored and only 0.38 conceded against comparable teams. A recent 0-5 loss to Neftchi Baku has left Araz looking fragile, while Turan’s 0-0 draw with Şəməş FK suggests they remain solid defensively.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.8 %), Under 6.5 (99.1 %), Home under 3.5 goals (98.5 %), Under 5.5 (97.1 %), Away under 3.5 goals (95.1 %), Home under 2.5 goals (93.3 %), Under 4.5 (91.9 %) and Away +2 handicap (91.2 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Araz win
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Turan win
42.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Araz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.83
1.12
1.24
1.15
2.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
5.50
-
-
0.50
5.50
vs Similar (22)
1.05
1.91
0.92
1.58
1.20
2.30
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
0.33
1.60
0.40
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Turan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.77
1.07
0.80
1.27
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.00
1.00
2.50
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (21)
1.24
0.62
1.08
0.58
1.44
0.67
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.40
1.00
0.00
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
64.3%
Under 1.5
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
36.0%
Under 2.5
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
16.8%
Under 3.5
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
43.5%
No
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-1
13.2%
0-0
13.1%
1-0
9.4%
0-2
8.9%
1-2
8.1%
2-1
6.0%
2-0
4.8%
Araz goals ↓
Turan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
13%
8.9%
3.7%
1.1%
1
9.4%
14%
8.1%
3.3%
1.0%
2
4.8%
6.0%
3.7%
1.5%
0.5%
3
1.5%
1.8%
1.1%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Araz goals (down), columns = Turan goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Safa Baku
1.09
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Araz is 0.39 points worse than Turan in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.79).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Safa Baku
1.02
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Araz and Turan are level in goals scored per game (both 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Qarabag
0.82
Turan
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Safa Baku
1.57
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Araz is 0.94 goals worse than Turan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.76 vs 0.82).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Araz or Draw
57.7%
Avg Implied -
26%
32%
42%
covers Araz + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Araz or Turan
68.2%
Avg Implied -
26%
32%
42%
covers Araz + Turan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Turan
74.1%
Avg Implied -
26%
32%
42%
covers Draw + Turan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Araz over/under 0.5
Over
59.6%
Under
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5
Over
23.0%
Under
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 3.5
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 0.5
Over
70.8%
Under
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5
Over
34.8%
Under
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5
Over
12.7%
Under
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 3.5
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Araz, so a minus line means Araz give that many goals of a start and Turan receive them. At -1, Araz must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Araz win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Araz)
Araz -2
2.4%
Draw -2
6.9%
Turan +2
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Araz)
Araz -1
9.3%
Draw -1
16.6%
Turan +1
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Araz)
Araz +1
57.7%
Draw +1
23.0%
Turan -1
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Araz)
Araz +2
80.6%
Draw +2
12.7%
Turan -2
6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Araz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.80
0.59
0.35
0.38
1.38
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.50
-
-
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (22)
0.45
0.82
0.50
0.42
0.40
1.30
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.17
0.80
0.20
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Turan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.27
0.60
0.20
0.33
0.33
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.75
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.24
0.75
0.08
0.33
0.44
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
66.1%
Under 0.5
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
28.3%
Under 1.5
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.4%
Under 2.5
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Araz over/under 0.5 HT
Over
35.4%
Under
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.8%
Under
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.6%
Under
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Araz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.03
0.53
0.88
0.77
1.23
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
3.00
-
-
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (22)
0.59
1.09
0.42
1.17
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.17
0.80
0.20
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Turan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.47
0.60
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.25
1.00
1.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.38
0.33
0.50
1.11
0.22
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.00
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.7%
Under 0.5
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.3%
Under 1.5
62.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.6%
Under 2.5
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Araz over/under 0.5 2H
Over
42.4%
Under
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.1%
Under
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.3%
Under
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.7%
Under
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SB (15)
€4m
ŞF (15)
€4m
Araz's squad is €4m less valuable than Turan's (€6m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
SB (5)
€1m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
Araz and Turan have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
SB (2)
€0m
Araz and Turan have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
SB (8)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
Araz's defence is €3m less valuable than Turan's (€2m vs €5m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zira
Neftchi Baku
Qarabag
Sabah FA
Imisli FK
Kapaz
Safa Baku
Şamaxı FK
Qabala
Sumqayıt