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Araz vs Zira Result & Analysis

Date: 25/02/2024
Time: 12:30
Final 0-3
Araz
Araz
Vs
35%
40%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Zira
Zira
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Araz win✗ Miss
34.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
40.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zira win✓ Hit
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ArazAraz

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D11D00D20W13L13L11D13L10W22DA·NEF26/11H·SƏB02/12A·ZIR09/12H·SAB15/12A·TUR24/12A·QAR23/01H·SUM28/01A·KAP05/02H·NEF13/02A·SƏB17/02
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.071.270.601.271.53
vs Stronger (3)1.332.002.001.001.002.50
vs Similar (19)1.260.891.200.601.331.22
vs Weaker (8)1.251.121.250.501.251.75
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ZiraZira

Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D01L00D01L01L00D01L11D00D01LA·SUM26/11A·NEF03/12H·ARA09/12A·TUR16/12H·QAR24/12A·SƏB22/01H·SAB27/01A·QAB04/02H·SUM13/02A·NEF18/02
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.671.000.790.810.56
vs Stronger (3)1.001.000.001.001.501.00
vs Similar (12)0.500.830.831.000.170.67
vs Weaker (15)1.200.471.290.571.120.38
Clean sheet %47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

8%16%24%32%25%032%126%212%34%41%50%6+
The model estimates around 1.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (32%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
43.2%
Under 1.5
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
17.4%
Under 2.5
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
5.7%
Under 3.5
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
27.1%
No
72.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
25.1%
1-0
17.8%
0-1
14.0%
1-1
13.3%
2-0
7.6%
0-2
4.8%
2-1
4.8%
1-2
3.9%
Araz goals ↓
Zira goals →
01234
025%14%4.8%1.0%0.2%
118%13%3.9%0.8%0.1%
27.6%4.8%1.5%0.3%0.1%
32.0%1.3%0.4%0.1%0.0%
40.4%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Araz goals (down), columns = Zira goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qarabag
2.31
Sabah FA
1.61
Zira
1.61
Sumqayıt
1.58
Neftchi Baku
1.56
Turan
1.33
Səbail
1.17
Araz
1.00
Kapaz
0.97
Qabala
0.72
Araz is 0.61 points worse than Zira in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.61).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.69
Turan
1.47
Neftchi Baku
1.42
Sabah FA
1.39
Səbail
1.39
Kapaz
1.08
Sumqayıt
1.03
Zira
0.92
Araz
0.86
Qabala
0.83
Araz is 0.06 goals worse than Zira in terms of goals scored per game (0.86 vs 0.92).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Zira
0.61
Qarabag
1.03
Sumqayıt
1.06
Neftchi Baku
1.11
Sabah FA
1.11
Araz
1.39
Turan
1.47
Səbail
1.67
Qabala
1.78
Kapaz
1.86
Araz is 0.78 goals worse than Zira in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 0.61).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ArazAraz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W00D10W02L02L01L12L00D21WA·NEF26/11H·SƏB02/12A·ZIR09/12H·SAB15/12A·TUR24/12A·QAR23/01H·SUM28/01A·KAP05/02H·NEF13/02A·SƏB17/02
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.500.330.130.670.87
vs Stronger (3)0.001.000.000.000.001.50
vs Similar (19)0.420.420.300.200.560.67
vs Weaker (8)0.880.500.500.001.251.00
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ZiraZira

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D00D00D00D01L00D00D11D00D01LA·SUM26/11A·NEF03/12H·ARA09/12A·TUR16/12H·QAR24/12A·SƏB22/01H·SAB27/01A·QAB04/02H·SUM13/02A·NEF18/02
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.330.360.430.250.25
vs Stronger (3)0.000.330.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (12)0.250.250.500.330.000.17
vs Weaker (15)0.400.400.290.430.500.38
Clean sheet %70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Araz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ArazAraz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W01L00D10W11D11D10W01L10W01LA·NEF26/11H·SƏB02/12A·ZIR09/12H·SAB15/12A·TUR24/12A·QAR23/01H·SUM28/01A·KAP05/02H·NEF13/02A·SƏB17/02
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.570.930.470.600.67
vs Stronger (3)1.331.002.001.001.001.00
vs Similar (19)0.840.470.900.400.780.56
vs Weaker (8)0.380.620.750.500.000.75
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ZiraZira

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D01L00D01L00D00D01L00D00D00DA·SUM26/11A·NEF03/12H·ARA09/12A·TUR16/12H·QAR24/12A·SƏB22/01H·SAB27/01A·QAB04/02H·SUM13/02A·NEF18/02
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.330.640.360.560.31
vs Stronger (3)1.000.670.000.001.501.00
vs Similar (12)0.250.580.330.670.170.50
vs Weaker (15)0.800.071.000.140.620.00
Clean sheet %73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Araz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.594.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 2.582.6%-------✗ Miss
BTTS No72.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Araz's squad is €6m less valuable than Zira's (€6m vs €12m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Araz's attack is €3m less valuable than Zira's (€3m vs €6m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Araz and Zira have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Araz's defence is €4m less valuable than Zira's (€2m vs €6m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
ARA wins
1
Draws
0
ZIR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Araz vs Zira · H/A from ARA
DateH/AGameScore
09/12/23AZira Vs ARA0-0
01/10/23HARA Vs Zira1-0

ArazAraz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/02/24ASəbail Vs ARA2-2
13/02/24HARA Vs Neftchi Baku1-0
05/02/24AKapaz Vs ARA3-1
28/01/24HARA Vs Sumqayıt1-1
23/01/24AQarabag Vs ARA3-1
24/12/23ATuran Vs ARA3-1
15/12/23HARA Vs Sabah FA2-0
09/12/23AZira Vs ARA0-0
02/12/23HARA Vs Səbail1-1
26/11/23ANeftchi Baku Vs ARA1-1

ZiraZira

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/02/24ANeftchi Baku Vs ZIR1-0
13/02/24HZIR Vs Sumqayıt0-0
04/02/24AQabala Vs ZIR1-1
27/01/24HZIR Vs Sabah FA0-1
22/01/24ASəbail Vs ZIR0-0
24/12/23HZIR Vs Qarabag0-1
16/12/23ATuran Vs ZIR1-0
09/12/23HZIR Vs Araz0-0
03/12/23ANeftchi Baku Vs ZIR1-0
26/11/23ASumqayıt Vs ZIR0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Araz
Araz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 2 Wins / 5 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLWD1.94
HomeLDWDW2.33
AwayDLLLD1.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%71%46%
AVG goals2.782.582.96
Over 1.5 %82%79%85%
Over 2.5 %52%46%58%
Over 3.5 %26%25%27%
Scored1.802.001.62
Conceded0.980.581.35
BTTS50%33%65%
Clean Sheet40%58%23%
Corners---
Cards---
Zira
Zira
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 0 Wins / 5 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDDL1.32
HomeWDLLD1.50
AwayLLDDL1.15
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%38%27%
AVG goals1.782.211.38
Over 1.5 %48%58%38%
Over 2.5 %30%42%19%
Over 3.5 %16%29%4%
Scored0.921.120.73
Conceded0.861.080.65
BTTS34%50%19%
Clean Sheet38%29%46%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QarabagQarabag3683
72%
2.3
9737+60
3.7
89%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.71.0
-
2ZiraZira3658
44%
1.6
3322+11
1.5
33%
25%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6160.90.6
-
3Sabah FASabah FA3658
47%
1.6
5040+10
2.5
72%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5571.41.1
-
4SumqayıtSumqayıt3657
42%
1.6
3738-1
2.1
56%
33%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4241.01.1
-
5Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3656
44%
1.6
5140+11
2.5
69%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.41.1
-
6TuranTuran3648
36%
1.3
5353+0
2.9
83%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.51.5
-
7SəbailSəbail3642
31%
1.2
5060-10
3.1
81%
64%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.7
-
8ArazAraz3636
25%
1.0
3150-19
2.2
72%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3220.91.4
-
9KapazKapaz3635
25%
1.0
3967-28
2.9
72%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1231.11.9
-
10QabalaQabala3626
19%
0.7
3064-34
2.6
72%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1130.81.8
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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