The model favours an away win, with a 42% chance for Zira, a 30% chance for a draw and a 28% chance for Araz. The expected total is 2.4 goals, most likely 2 goals overall, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 14.2%. Araz, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.08 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Zira, on the road, averages 1.12 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.8%), Under 5.5 (96.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.3%), Home under 2.5 goals (91.1%), Under 4.5 (90.6%) and Away +2 handicap (88.9%). Araz have recently lost their opening match 0-5 to Neftchi Baku, while Zira are on a three-game winning streak, having beaten the same opponent 1-0. The match is likely to be a low-scoring affair with Zira holding the edge.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Araz win
26.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zira win
43.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Araz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.83
1.12
1.24
1.15
2.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
5.50
-
-
0.50
5.50
vs Similar (22)
1.05
1.91
0.92
1.58
1.20
2.30
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
0.33
1.60
0.40
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zira
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.90
1.19
0.81
1.14
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.00
1.00
0.83
0.67
1.12
1.25
vs Weaker (14)
1.36
0.64
1.50
0.62
1.17
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
68.9%
Under 1.5
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
41.2%
Under 2.5
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
20.6%
Under 3.5
79.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
47.6%
No
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
0-1
11.8%
0-0
11.0%
0-2
8.8%
1-2
8.7%
1-0
8.3%
2-1
6.4%
2-0
4.7%
Araz goals ↓
Zira goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
12%
8.8%
3.9%
1.3%
1
8.3%
14%
8.7%
3.9%
1.3%
2
4.7%
6.4%
4.3%
1.9%
0.6%
3
1.6%
2.1%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.4%
0.5%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Araz goals (down), columns = Zira goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Safa Baku
1.09
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Araz is 0.21 points worse than Zira in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.61).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Safa Baku
1.02
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Araz is 0.03 goals better than Zira in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.30).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Qarabag
0.82
Turan
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Safa Baku
1.57
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Araz is 0.67 goals worse than Zira in terms of goals conceded per game (1.76 vs 1.09).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Araz or Draw
56.4%
Avg Implied -
26%
30%
44%
covers Araz + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Araz or Zira
69.8%
Avg Implied -
26%
30%
44%
covers Araz + Zira
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Zira
73.8%
Avg Implied -
26%
30%
44%
covers Draw + Zira
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Araz over/under 0.5
Over
62.7%
Under
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5
Over
25.9%
Under
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 3.5
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 0.5
Over
73.9%
Under
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 1.5
Over
38.8%
Under
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 2.5
Over
15.3%
Under
84.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 3.5
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Araz, so a minus line means Araz give that many goals of a start and Zira receive them. At -1, Araz must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Araz win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Araz)
Araz -2
2.8%
Draw -2
7.2%
Zira +2
90.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Araz)
Araz -1
10.0%
Draw -1
16.2%
Zira +1
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Araz)
Araz +1
56.4%
Draw +1
22.6%
Zira -1
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Araz)
Araz +2
79.0%
Draw +2
13.4%
Zira -2
7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Araz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.80
0.59
0.35
0.38
1.38
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.50
-
-
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (22)
0.45
0.82
0.50
0.42
0.40
1.30
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.17
0.80
0.20
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zira
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.47
0.50
0.44
0.43
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.64
0.33
0.50
0.38
0.75
vs Weaker (14)
0.57
0.21
0.62
0.25
0.50
0.17
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Araz over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Araz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.03
0.53
0.88
0.77
1.23
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
3.00
-
-
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (22)
0.59
1.09
0.42
1.17
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.17
0.80
0.20
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zira
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.43
0.69
0.38
0.71
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.36
0.50
0.17
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (14)
0.79
0.43
0.88
0.38
0.67
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Araz over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SB (15)
€4m
ŞF (15)
€4m
Araz's squad is €6m less valuable than Zira's (€6m vs €12m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
SB (5)
€1m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
Araz's attack is €3m less valuable than Zira's (€3m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
SB (2)
€0m
Araz and Zira have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
SB (8)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
Araz's defence is €4m less valuable than Zira's (€2m vs €6m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Neftchi Baku
Qarabag
Sabah FA
Turan
Qabala
Imisli FK
Kapaz
Safa Baku
Şamaxı FK
Sumqayıt