Arbroath vs Raith Rovers Result & Analysis

Arbroath’s defensive record at home, conceding just over one goal per game, contrasts sharply with Raith Rovers’ away struggles, where they average more than one goal conceded. The model favours a home win, with a 35% chance, followed by a 32% draw and a 32% chance of an away victory. The expected total goals sit at 2.1, with the most likely total being two goals at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.8% probability. Arbroath’s recent form shows a two-game winning streak, while Raith Rovers are coming off a defeat. In terms of scoring against similar opposition, Arbroath averages 1.56 goals scored and 1.11 conceded, whereas Raith Rovers average 0.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 87.7%, Under 3.5 at 83.4% (hit), Under 25.5 fouls at 81.6%, Under 4.5 cards at 75.3% and Over 8.5 corners at 72.3%.

The upset came early as Raith Rovers snatched a 0-1 win, ending Arbroath’s two-game winning streak. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was backed by a 35% probability, but the model’s call proved wrong. The only other selection was Under 3.5 goals, with an 83.4% chance, and it hit. The match delivered a single goal, below the expected 2.1 total. Arbroath’s home form had been solid, yet their 1-0 victory over Livingston had not translated into this encounter. Raith, after a defeat, capitalised on the opportunity, securing the away win. The model’s predictions were mixed: one hit, one missed.